2022 Stats (rank)
Total yards per game: 325.1 (21st)
Plays per game: 63.4 (16th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 37.3 (10th)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.05 (25th)
Rush attempts per game: 26.1 (18th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.12 (28th)
Coaching Staff
2022 was The Russening. With the Broncos ignoring Russell Wilson‘s slow fade since the second half of the 2020 season, they got hit with the full-on decline. Wilson’s 60.5 completion percentage was a career low, while his 7.3 yards per attempt were his second worst mark. His 55 sacks taken were a new personal worst and his 368 yards lost on those quarterback takedowns “led” the league. He had zero chemistry with coach Nathaniel Hackett, with the duo struggling to even get the plays in. If rumors are to be believed, Wilson went so far as to refuse to learn Hackett’s audibles. Although it was a fiasco of the quarterback’s making, Hackett predictably paid the price as a rare one-and-done head coach.
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Passing Game
QB: Russell Wilson, Jarrett Stidham
WR: Jerry Jeudy, Marvin Mims
WR: Courtland Sutton, KJ Hamler
WR: Tim Patrick, Marquez Callaway
TE: Greg Dulcich, Adam Trautman, Albert Okwuegbunam
Enter Sean Payton. One of the most efficient play-callers of the 21st century, Payton will be taking over an offense that ranked 25th in dropback EPA in 2022, and 19th in raw passing. Not exactly what the Broncos had in mind when they surrendered five draft picks and three players for Wilson’s services.
Thankfully for Payton, the cupboard isn’t exactly bare, though it is confusingly organized. Jerry Jeudy is the No. 1 receiver, but he was the subject of persistent offseason trade rumors until the Broncos exercised his fifth-year team option for 2024. The No. 15 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Jeudy has never had a 1,000-yard season, but he came closest amidst last year’s chaos. Healthy-ish after an injury-marred 2021, Jeudy posted new career highs in receptions (67), yards (972), touchdowns (six) and yards per route run (2.18). That final number, a telling mark of efficiency, ranked 12th in Pro Football Focus’ database despite Wilson making life difficult for his pass catchers. Although Jeudy also plays outside, he has lived up to his pre-draft billing as an explosive-play threat out of the slot. Still one of the league’s more intriguing wideouts, Jeudy is a low-end WR2 who could experience a long-overdue breakout during his age-24 campaign.
Behind Jeudy is where it really starts to get blurry. Courtland Sutton is the closest thing the Broncos have to a No. 2 receiver on paper, but he has not lived up to his outside alpha reputation since his 2020 knee injury. He has produced just 1,605 yards and four touchdowns in the 32 games since, watching his yards per route run fall from a solid 2.08 in 2019 to sub-1.50 over the past two years. The supposed boundary dominator bagged just 11 catches of 20-plus yards in 2022, tying him with bust Gabe Davis and slot dynamo Amon-Ra St. Brown. Despite the increasingly horizontal nature of Payton’s final Saints offenses, the head coach has traditionally known how to scheme players open down-field. It must be said Payton’s deep game has traditionally featured speed demons like Devery Henderson or Ted Ginn. Perhaps Payton will finally unlock Sutton’s post-injury potential, but he will have other options. Sutton is a risky WR4 in this rebuilding offense.
Beyond Sutton and Jeudy is mass confusion. Tim Patrick has the best claim to No. 3 status, but he’s 29 years old and didn’t play a snap last season due to a torn ACL. He will also be trying to impress a famously meticulous new head coach, one infamous for liking “his guys.” Patrick is at least healthy, fully participating in OTAs and minicamp. The Athletic’s Nick Kosmider believes Patrick’s blocking could endear him to Payton, and that his 6-foot-4 frame could be used to create slot mismatches. Although that’s true, Patrick has never had an 800-yard season and seems extremely unlikely to start now.
Itching to play spoiler behind Jeudy, Sutton and Patrick is second-round rookie Marvin Mims. A game-breaker on film, Mims (5'11/183) timed an explosive 4.38 40-yard dash at the Combine. 16.2 percent of his 2022 receptions went for 40-plus yards, while he averaged a ridiculous 13.5 yards per target over his final two seasons at Oklahoma. Despite his relatively unimposing frame, Mims wins creatively at the top of routes, and has the ball-tracking ability to win over the top down the field. An explosive jumper, Mims used his speed and leaping ability to post an elite 9.41 (out of 10.0) relative athletic score. All that is the long way of saying that Mims could become Payton’s down-field weapon of choice. Although only a WR4 flier in fantasy, Mims will absolutely be in the mix for a staple role in three-receiver sets, and could even become the No. 2 if he plays his cards right.
At tight end is impressive 2022 rookie Greg Dulcich, Payton trade acquisition Adam Trautman and injury-prone pass catcher Albert Okwuegbunam. Dulcich is the only one worth drafting in fantasy after his 33/411/2 rookie campaign, but Payton’s Trautman move isn’t the only concerning development. There are also his May words. “We’ll see,” Payton said of Dulcich. “The evaluation … some of it was hard (with Dulcich).” Yikes. Payton was more positive in June, saying “I think his menu is going to be lengthy in the passing game and there’s enough stuff we can do in the run game.” There is still enough here to consider Dulcich an upside TE2 flier, but he could easily end up one of your first September cuts.
Leftover is always-injured deep threat KJ Hamler and teacher’s pet Marquez Callaway. Hamler has appeared in just 10 games since 2020. Even were he to finagle his way into Payton’s “Ted Ginn role,” it is impossible to envision fantasy value developing. Callaway has a better shot at sneaking into weekly snaps after he averaged 12.9 air yards per target under Payton in 2021. Both receivers will max out as role players who can be ignored in summer drafts.
As for Wilson, it’s impossible to ignore his Brees-ian skill-set. When he’s right, Wilson is capable of providing league-leading accuracy, while his pop-a-shot deep ball reminds of Brees in his prime. We just don’t know if there is any of Wilson’s prime left. Payton’s presence and the Broncos’ deep skill corps make Wilson a reasonable bounce-back candidate. It should surprise no one if he ends up out-producing the Kirk Cousins/Daniel Jones/Geno Smith tier in fantasy. The QB18 as of now on Underdog, Wilson is probably being under-drafted.
Running Game
RB: Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, Tony Jones, Tyler Badie
OL (L-R): Garrett Bolles, Ben Powers, Lloyd Cushenberry, Quinn Meinerz, Mike McGlinchey
Payton’s offenses are best not only when they are balanced, but balanced in the backfield with a variety of skill-sets. Third-year pro Javonte Williams is obviously the best bet for an Alvin Kamara-type season, but he is recovering from an abnormally severe knee injury. Williams was just breaking loose from his committee hell with Melvin Gordon last season when he shredded his knee in Week 4, tearing his ACL, LCL and PCL. Before going down, Williams had been pushing for 15 weekly carries and was having moments in the passing game.
At full health, Williams is by far the best back on this roster. The problem, as you might have guessed, is we have no clue when “full health” might occur. Williams is a strong candidate to begin the year on the reserve/PUP list, which would cost him four games. For what it’s worth, Payton — who is arguably the least transparent injury updater in the league — has claimed he is “optimistic” about Williams’ status. This was after he admitted to uncertainty. Sourced reports haven’t been any more enlightening. Summer drafters cannot assume Williams will be ready for the opener. As frustrating as it is to admit, Williams is a player where we simply need more information. This being Payton, the situation might not be any more clear by mid-August, but it certainly isn’t clear right now. As it stands, Williams is a risky FLEX bet.
Williams is also a holdover. Samaje Perine, of all people, is “Payton’s guy” after signing a two-year, $7.5 million deal in free agency. Going all the way back to the Saints’ selection of Reggie Bush at No. 2 overall in 2006, Payton has generated running back receptions. That Perine will be the primary beneficiary of them in Denver is the one thing we can say for sure about the backfield at this juncture. Perine isn’t going to be anybody’s league-winner, but placeholder RB3/FLEX status is an eminently reasonable guess.
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Win Total
Despite last season’s 5-12 debacle, the Broncos are usually listed at 8.5. Payton’s arrival and Wilson’s near-certain improvement on last year’s results make the over a tempting play, but this is also the division of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Even the Raiders are better than your typical cellar-dwelling squad. Warren Sharp charts the Broncos as having the league’s 10th most difficult schedule. Concerning, but Payton won fewer than nine games just five times in 15 years with the Saints. He never won fewer than seven, including in 2021 with Jameis Winston and company, where he somehow went 9-8. Payton’s baseline is so high that I am more inclined to expect 9-8 than 7-10.
