2022 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 27.5 (4th)
Total yards per game: 354.9 (11th)
Plays per game: 65.5 (9th)
Pass attempts + sacks per game: 34.3 (22nd)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.08 (9th)
Rush attempts per game: 31.2 (6th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.03 (12th)
Coaching Staff
It would be hyperbolic to say the Cowboys don’t want to score points in 2023, but head coach Mike McCarthy provided an offseason earworm for the ages when he said the decision to move on from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was due in part to his desire to “light the scoreboard up.” In an era where scoring is a top priority not only for teams but the league and how it enables offensive players to do so, McCarthy would rather “run the damn ball” to provide rest for his defense.
It’s a quote so hysterical it’s almost hard to believe it was said. But here we are. It’s even more absurd when you consider the Cowboys ranked sixth in rush attempts per game last season and 19th in pass attempts per game (32.7). It’s hard to imagine them establishing it more than they did in 2022, but McCarthy appears hellbent on doing so.
To further drive his efforts, McCarthy hired the perfect high-t henchman to serve alongside him. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, whose offenses have finished top-five in rush attempts on four separate occasions, will see to it that McCarthy’s ground-and-pound ways are at the forefront of their offensive approach in 2023.
By all accounts, drafting anybody not named Tony Pollard sounds like a fantasy disaster waiting to happen if McCarthy follows through on his misguided words. However, if he considers an offensive approach that’s even remotely resemblant to a modern-day attack, several players could turn into valuable fantasy assets in 2023.
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Passing Game
QB: Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush
WR: Michael Gallup, Simi Fehoko
WR: Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert
WR: CeeDee Lamb, KaVontae Turpin
TE: Jake Ferguson, Luke Schoonmaker
Dak Prescott ranked 19th in pass attempts but tied for first in interceptions (15) with Davis Mills last season. His 3.8 interception percentage also led all qualified passers.
While none of this is good for Prescott, it wasn’t all disastrous for the Cowboys’ signal-caller. Prescott ranked eighth amongst qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play (0.154) and was top-10 in air yards per attempt (8.3). He also ranked 10th in deep ball completion percentage at 42.9 percent, proving plenty efficient when he chose to air it out.
Prescott turned the ball over at an all-time high rate for his career, but his 5.8 touchdown pass rate was also the second-best showing of his career. So how worried should we be about him in 2023?
From a turnover perspective, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his interception rate regress closer to his career mark of two percent. With that being said, a run-heavy approach by the Cowboys would mean we’re banking on Prescott’s efficiency to return high-end fantasy production, which is a bet that could prove risky. We saw this in 2022 when he finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in 55 percent of his starts but closed the year as the overall QB16 with 19.9 fantasy points per game, thanks to several underwhelming weeks.
Fantasy managers willing to hitch their wagons to Prescott this season can do so with the confidence of knowing CeeDee Lamb remains his top target in the offense. Prescott’s high-end efficiency has been directly correlated with Lamb’s equally impressive numbers, as the former first-round pick ranks ninth in fantasy points over expected (106.8) since entering the league in 2020.
| Player | Team | Fantasy Points Over Expected |
| Davante Adams | LV | 185.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | 169.0 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | 166.7 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | 165.8 |
| A.J. Brown | PHI | 143.5 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | 140.1 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 136.9 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | 129.0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 106.8 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | 103.7 |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | 90.4 |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | 86.9 |
Lamb’s ability to lineup all over the formation, win contested targets, and pick up significant yards after the catch make him one of the best receivers in fantasy when targeted. Lamb lined up in the slot on 62.5 percent of his snaps last season and turned in the best year of his career (107-1359-9), but we’ve seen him enjoy similar success on the outside. Fresh off his first top-10 fantasy season and at just 24 years old, it’s possible Lamb is just tapping into his full potential. He’s already off to a historical start, being one of just eight receivers since 2000 to total 3,000-plus receiving yards by his age-23 season.
Playing alongside Lamb is the newly acquired Brandin Cooks, who moved north from Houston this offseason. After three frustrating years with the Texans, Cooks joins the Cowboys in hopes of playing for a contender in 2023.
A 2022 season riddled with injury (and perhaps frustration) saw Cooks appear in 13 games. He finished with an underwhelming 57 receptions for 699 yards and three touchdowns while averaging just 53.8 yards per game -- the second-worst mark of his career. Still, Cooks’ efficiency numbers took marginal hits at worst and don’t suggest a statistical collapse is incoming.
Expectations should be tempered for the veteran receiver. However, he still showed big-play ability at various points in the season, ripping off gains of 20-plus yards on 14 percent of his targets -- ranking inside the top-15 among qualified receivers. For now, he profiles as a high-end WR3 that will offer the occasional spike week. Cooks is expected to play opposite Michael Gallup on the outside, with Gallup likely serving in more of a deep-threat role now that he’s a full year removed from his torn ACL.
The tight end position will need to be ironed out in training camp after Dalton Schultz left to sign with the Texans. Second-year player Jake Ferguson is expected to get the first crack at the starting job after impressing in limited opportunities last season, but targets could be hard to come by for the young tight end. Ferguson will compete with fellow incumbent Peyton Hendershot and rookie second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker.
In addition to a solid wide receiver corps, Ferguson will also be competing with Tony Pollard for targets, who saw a career-high 55 looks last season. Cowboys tight ends have averaged 7.3 targets per game over the previous three seasons, good for 12th most in the league. While it’s not an elite number for a position that already struggles to score fantasy points, Dallas’ starting tight end -- whoever that is -- could have some occasional streaming upside.
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Rushing Game
RB: Tony Pollard, Malik Davis, Ronald Jones, Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn
OL (L-R): Tyron Smith, Tyler Smith, Tyler Biadasz, Zack Martin, Terence Steele
Gone is Jerry Jones’ Golden Boy Ezekiel Elliott -- at least for now. Another year of declining play that was earmarked with a putrid 50-100-0 rushing line (2.0 YPC) over the team’s final four games was all Jones needed to see to realize he couldn’t pay Zeke the near $16 million he was set to earn in 2023. In fact, Elliott’s play reached a point so low the front office thought it better to release him rather than insult him with a restructured contract more fitting of his value.
His release was an obviously correct decision by a team that will likely make the obviously sub-optimal decision of re-signing him before Week 1. But I digress.
For now, it’s the Tony Pollard show. Pollard, who suffered a fractured fibula in the NFC Divisional Round against San Francisco, is trending in the right direction post-injury and is expecting to be ready by training camp. This is excellent news for a player the Cowboys opted to pay $10.09 million on the franchise tag this offseason.
Pollard didn’t take complete control of the Cowboys’ backfield last season, but he did see his largest workload to date. The fifth-year back closed out 2022 with a rushing line of 193-1007-9 and added another 39-371-3 through the air. He paid off in a big way for fantasy managers, finishing as the overall RB9 in fantasy points per game (15.6) while showing world-class efficiency in the process. His 59.2 fantasy points over expected ranked first among all running backs, narrowly beating out Nick Chubb and Austin Ekeler.
Fantasy managers have every reason to be high on Pollard this season. His current situation suggests he’ll be the unquestioned bell cow in the offense, which means career highs could once again in store if he can stay healthy. He’s all but a lock to finish as a top-12 back and could have top-five upside if things break the right way for him.
His competition (even if Zeke returns) is thin. While Ronald Jones is a familiar name who could threaten for playing time, Jones has struggled for touches over the last two seasons. Splitting those years with the Bucs and Chiefs, he has just 118 carries to his name over that span but has averaged a respectable 4.2 YPC.
The true wild card of the backfield could be Malik Davis. An undrafted rookie who was promoted from the practice squad last October, Davis was solid in a limited role for the Cowboys last offseason. Perhaps more importantly, he’s displayed decent hands at the college and pro levels and hauled in 70 passes during his time at Florida.
Rookie Deuce Vaughn, who is as explosive as he is undersized, has a chance to develop into an interesting role player down the stretch. The 5-foot-5, 179-pound Vaughn made a name for himself as an explosive playmaker out of Kansas State, but it’s hard to imagine him handling any serious work between the tackles.
As it stands right now, Pollard is the only sure bet to see a significant workload in this backfield. The rest is up in the air until training camp. Or a Zeke signing. Whichever comes first.
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Win Total
Bet MGM Over/Under: 9.5
Pick: Under
The Cowboys went 12-5 last season against a stout NFC East but faced one of the easier schedules outside the division. Currently slated to face a slightly above-average schedule in 2023, the Cowboys replicating last season’s 12-win total could prove challenging. A tough schedule against various AFC opponents is only made more challenging when you consider they face the Chargers, Bills, and Dolphins on the road, and they have a difficult road matchup against the 49ers in Week 5. It’s hard enough to trust McCarthy heading into this season. Asking him to match wits against stout offenses led by forward-thinking coaches on the road may prove to be too much. Then again, if his offense is providing adequate rest for his defense, anything could happen.
