Theory, as that guy from that overly-long and overly-loud movie said, can take you only so far.
I wrote a couple weeks ago about the concept of the Zero RB draft strategy and the contours of how your draft might go if you’re truly committed to rejecting balance, fading the NFL’s best running backs, and stocking up on elite receivers and tight ends.
But the people like getting the answers to the test, so I shall deliver said answers. Below are 11 running backs I’m targeting again and again in redraft leagues as key components to the kind of Zero RB (or Hero RB, as The Washington Post might prefer) roster that offers the upside to dominate your league in 2023.
These running backs are in no particular order. You won’t be able to roster every guy listed below in every draft because drafters still chase their running back insurance picks and other folks in your league might be fellow Zero RB zealots, creating their team in a purely ideological fashion.
Remember: Many of your latter half draft selections in a Zero RB build should be backs who have a viable path to touches if their team’s lead back goes down. This doesn’t always mean the guy gets an unquestioned three-down role. He might be an early-down back who sees most or all of his team’s goal line work. That works. He might be a guy who splits early-down snaps and gets all the pass-catching work. That also works (in PPR, mostly). Identifying these running backs is the proverbial name of the literal game when piecing together a Zero RB squad.
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Tyler Allgeier (ATL)
ADP: RB46
There is not, in my humble estimation, a better late-round running back option than Allgeier, fresh off a rookie campaign in which he totaled 1,174 yards despite seeing precious little playing time in the season’s first month. While I don’t think advanced stats matter in evaluating running backs, I will note — for the analytics nerds out there — that only five backs had a higher yards after contact per carry than Allgeier in 2022 (again, this doesn’t matter).
There’s clarity in the Atlanta backfield, which we like. It might not be welcomed by everyone, but it is clear Bijan Robinson is the lead back and Allgeier is the No. 2 option — maybe even the 1B. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith, who hates your fantasy team more than anyone has ever hated anything, has pulled no punches this offseason in emphasizing a “hot hand” approach to the team’s backfield distribution.
“We may have the idea that we want to get guys a certain number of carries and then all of a sudden Allgeier gets a hot hand and what you’re doing with him is working,” Smith told reporters in a recent interview. “Don’t be rigid. We have to win the game.”
Falcons beat writer Josh Kendall, meanwhile, projected Allgeier for 170 touches this season, trailing Robinson by about 130. The Falcons’ unending commitment to a run-first offense means Allgeier should have some flex appeal to start the season, seeing 8-10 carries and perhaps mooching goal line work from Robinson.
But it’s Allgeier’s contingency value that makes him a must-draft option for fantasy managers who fade the game’s elite running backs in the early rounds. If Robinson misses time in 2023, Allgeier becomes a plug-and-play top-10 running back even if Cordarrelle Patterson mixes into the backfield equation. Being the bellcow in an offense that last season posted the NFL’s second lowest pass rate over expected and Pro Football Focus’ top-rated run-blocking unit isn’t a bad gig.
Deuce Vaughn (DAL)
ADP: RB58
It’s true that Rico Dowdle started the Cowboys’ second preseason game against the Seahawks. And yes, Dallas beat writers have long tabbed Dowdle as the No. 2 back behind Tony Pollard. For that reason, Dowdle makes for a reasonable late-round pick in most formats.
I’m a slave to spreadsheets. I love my analytics, as you know if you follow me on various social media platforms. So this pains me to say: Deuce Vaughn’s uncontainable dawg levels will be impossible for the Cowboys to keep off the field in 2023.
I could point to Vaughn’s 3,808 total yards and 34 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Kansas State, where he regularly carved up elite college defenses. I could point to Pro Football Focus grading Vaughn as 2022’s second best pass-catching back. I could point to Vaughn averaging five yards a pop and scoring two touchdowns on 13 preseason rushes this August. I could even point to the rookie’s top-10 PFF preseason rushing grade, or the Dallas Morning News declaring “Deuce Mania” after Vaughn’s 14-yard touchdown scamper against Seattle.
I won’t though. Such pointing would be egregious.
Instead, I’ll go from the gut and tell you Vaughn strikes me as the kind of running back that cannot be kept off the field. The Cowboys will try, but they will fail. There is certainly a chance -- however remote -- that Vaughn eats at the edges of Pollard’s workload, likely in the passing game. And if Pollard misses time in 2023, I refuse to believe Dowdle will stop Vaughn from emerging as the Cowboys’ lead guy. This is analytics.
Is Vaughn better than Bijan Robinson? Many are asking. I’m not leaving a draft without the diminutive (the nicest way to say short) Dallas rookie.
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI)
ADP: RB53
Gainwell has gained exactly zero steam this summer because the Eagles backfield is so very vexing from a fantasy standpoint. Rashaad Penny, D’Andre Swift, and Gainwell -- along with Giants killer Boston Scott -- make for a healthy heaping of uncertainty. It’s the kind of uncertainty that holds down ADPs like Gainwell’s.
The Eagles held Gainwell and Scott out of their preseason opener while Swift and Penny saw some run against the Ravens. The former two backs’ familiarity with the team’s offense probably have something to do with that. And just this week, rumors swirled about Penny — who signed a meager deal this offseason — not making the 53-player roster.
Gainwell seemingly has the pass-catching backfield role locked down. But wait, there’s more. In early August, Eagles beat writer Shamus Clancy said Gainwell “has increasingly been the team’s early-down back where he’s getting touches as a runner,” adding that Gainwell has had a stronger training camp than his backfield mates.
That Gainwell is the third Philadelphia running back off fantasy draft boards may prove to be the worst collective positional valuation in all of fantasy football. The best part for Zero RB zealots: Gainwell costs next to nothing and could be immediately useful as an RB2.
Jaylen Warren (PIT)
ADP: RB49
Warren is already the Steelers’ best backfield option and — as the zoomers are wont to say online — it isn’t particularly close.
Warren was far better than Najee Harris as a rusher and pass catcher in 2022, and he’s shown his big play ability — something Harris sorely lacks — in Pittsburgh’s two preseason games. Nowhere in the NFL does running back ability matter less than in Pittsburgh, with old-school Mike Tomlin wanting more than anything to wear down defenders with Harris’ big-bodied plodding style. The Steelers were tough fifty years ago; they must remain tough at all costs.
Warren should be a priority add for anyone seeking a running back lottery ticket or three. He would certainly be a workhorse if Harris misses any time in 2023. Maybe the Steelers will even consider playing their best players one day. You never know.
Chris Evans (CIN)
ADP: RB88
Evans, who’s not being drafted outside the deepest fantasy formats, has asserted himself as the Bengals’ clear No. 2 option behind 27-year-old Joe Mixon. After some 2022 struggles, Evans has reportedly earned the trust of Bengals coaches and made headway as a pass-catching option in the Cincinnati backfield.
A Mixon injury would probably lead to a split backfield, with Evans taking on pass-catching duties and rookie Chase Brown seeing the majority of the early-down work. Both Brown and Evans are interesting late-round picks.
Roschon Johnson (CHI)
ADP: RB61
The rookie popped in all the rushing metrics during his final season at Texas. Suffice it to say Johnson excelled before contact, after contact, and as a pass catcher. Apparently he’s also raised more than a couple eyebrows with his pass protection in Bears training camp. Johnson, in short, has that dawg in him. Also, running back metrics don’t matter.
The Bears had 2022’s second lowest pass rate over expected, meaning they established the run no matter what was happening. Leading in the second half? Establish it. Tie game? Establish it. Down by three scores in the fourth quarter? You know the drill: Establish (It didn’t hurt that the Bears had PFF’s sixth best run blocking offensive line in 2022).
The acquisition of D.J. Moore and another year of development for Justin Fields should remove the Bears from the ranks of the stubbornly run heavy, but there’s almost no universe in which Chicago is a balanced offense in 2023. That means plenty of rushing attempts for whichever of the three running backs -- Johnson, Khalil Herbert, and D’Onta Foreman -- emerge as the top dog.
Herbert, based on coaches’ comments and preseason usage, will enter the season as Chicago’s starting back. It remains to be seen how much work that entails in a backfield destined to be of the committee variety. The Bears are making Johnson work for it this preseason, sinking him to fourth on the backfield depth chart before bumping him up to third for the team’s second preseason tilt. His explosiveness has carried over into the preseason: Johnson has four rushes of over ten yards on his 19 attempts, with 75 of his 76 preseason rushing yards coming after contact.
Foreman also makes for a good-enough Zero RB option. Right or wrong, I’m playing the long game with the Chicago backfield.
Devin Singletary (HOU)
ADP: RB43
The Texans holding out Dameon Pierce and playing Singletary in their preseason opener is a good sign Pierce — who played with the starters in preseason Week 2 — will enter the regular season as the team’s unquestioned starter. Probably you aren’t bowled over.
Singletary, however, would likely take on an every-down role in Houston’s offense if Pierce misses time in 2023. Constantly among running backs with the best yards before contact per carry (not that it matters for NFL coaches), Singletary was a locked-in fantasy RB1 in the rare stretches in which he was Buffalo’s three-down guy. He was, in fact, the highest scoring running back in fantasy football during the final month of the 2021 regular season.
Always a coach’s favorite, Singletary would be a tremendous fantasy option if Pierce misses time this season.
Tyjae Spears (TEN)
ADP: RB57
The fantasy football landscape is littered with the graves of analysts who have talked up Derrick Henry’s backups. I’m in there, all zombified and whatnot.
We’re doing this once again with third-round rookie Tyjae Spears, an explosive runner who has averaged 6.8 yards on 13 preseason rushing attempts. His ACL issue appears, for now, to be a non-issue, and he’s established himself as Tennessee’s RB2 behind Henry, 29. Titans offensive coordinator Tim Kelly said in June that the team would give Spears “as much as he can handle,” whatever that might mean to you.
If the invincible Henry — a living, breathing exception to all the running backs rules — were to get dinged up, Spears would be an exciting fantasy option in a balanced or run-first Titans offense.
Chuba Hubbard (CAR)
ADP: RB59
Miles Sanders is struggling through a lingering groin issue that could keep him out for the entire preseason and Hubbard is set up as a fairly clear-cut No. 2 back in the Carolina backfield. Raheem Blackshear (who doesn’t have a redraft ADP) might have something to say about that.
The Athletic’s Joe Person believes Hubbard could profile as the Panthers’ Day One goal line and short yardage back. Meanwhile, head coach Frank Reich mentioned Blackshear — a preseason all-star — as a possible outlet for Bryce Young. Either Carolina back makes for a sensible late-round dart throw in case Sanders remains dinged up or loses snaps due to old-fashioned poor play.
Rostering the lead back for a Panthers offense expected to be balanced or run-first in nature isn’t the worst process for those who fade top running backs.
Keaton Mitchell (BAL)
ADP: N/A
The lightning-fast rookie enters a backfield with an incumbent (J.K. Dobbins) who has struggled to get back from his 2021 knee injury and is (very) unhappy with his contract situation. The reliable Gus Edwards -- a decent Zero RB pick himself -- would likely be Baltimore’s lead guy if Dobbins missed game action in 2023. But it’s Mitchell that intrigues those playing the long game.
A favorite of Rotoworld’s Zachary Krueger, Mitchell in 2022 led the nation in yards per carry (7.4), with an astounding 28 percent of his rushes going for at least ten yards. He was PFF’s fourth highest graded rusher in 2022, his final year at East Carolina. Mitchell won’t get an every-down role in the Ravens offense but he won’t need many touches to prove fantasy viable in a more pass heavy, open Baltimore offense. I’m rostering Mitchell in deeper 12-team leagues and all 14-team formats.
Jordan Mason (SF)
ADP: N/A
Mason, by some accounts, would be in line for nominal lead back duties if 27-year-old Christian McCaffrey were to struggle with injuries this season. Efficient as a rusher in limited work as a rookie, the mere possibility of Mason taking the No. 2 running back role from the perpetually-injured Elijah Mitchell is enough to add him to the end of your roster.
The long, storied history of the often-maddening Shanahan backfield tells us we want whoever is getting the lead-back carries in said system.
