Kyle Dvorchak breaks down potential trade targets and landing spots for key players ahead of the 2023 NFL trade deadline.
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
The Titans have already indicated that they are looking toward the future by trading former All-Pro safety Kevin Byard to the Eagles. An injury to Ryan Tannehill has also forced them to give second-round rookie Will Levis a look and the results were promising after one week. Keeping Henry, who is about to turn 30 and is an impending free agent, could make sense in an effort to balance Levis with a strong ground game. But if the Titans truly view Levis as the future of the franchise, Henry’s name should be floated around the league.
Henry is still performing well in the advanced metrics, averaging .68 rush yards over expected with a 42.7 percent success rate. The Titans also have a potential replacement for him on the roster in rookie Tyjae Spears. A deal would make sense for both sides. The Bills, who have been reluctant to hand the reigns over to James Cook, and the Ravens, who lost J.K. Dobbins for the season early this year, could both be potential landing spots for the Big Dog.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans
Levis’s four-score blowup in Week 8 changed a lot for the Titans. It put a win on the board, keeping them in the playoff hunt. It likely halted any trade talks surrounding DeAndre Hopkins as his best fit is on the Titans to help them evaluate their second-round rookie. Most importantly, it made Ryann Tannehill expendable. This spot was initially saved for Hopkins butnow goes to Tannehill.
The biggest issue with moving Tannehill is that he is still dealing with an ankle injury and wasn’t good to start the year.
Tannehill has a dreadful, 1.3 percent touchdowns rate this year. His interception rate is nearly three times as high and he is averaging 7.1 yards per throw. Still, he is, at worst, a starting-caliber NFL quarterback. The carnage of Week 8 has officially put that in high demand. Having benched Desmond Ridder and then denied it on camera, Arthur Smith and the Falcons are an ideal spot for Tannehill. The move would reunite him with his former offensive coordinator while giving Atlanta a shot at making a run in the weakest division in the league.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants
The Giants are now 2-6 and all but eliminated from the playoff conversation. Daniel Jones has been cleared to return but it is likely too little too late for the struggling G-Men, keeping them in sell mode at the deadline. New York coach Brian Daboll personally assured Barkley he wouldn’t be moved, though things change quickly in the NFL and roster management is a cold-hearted game.
Barkley is on an expiring contract as the Giants refused to give him a multi-year deal in the offseason. They are either set for another franchise tag plus contract standoff combo or will be forced to let Barkley walk in free agency next spring. Neither option is ideal, so they could opt to move him to a contender. Always looking to spend every pick they have before the draft happens, the LA Rams may make an offer for Barkley if they are concerned with Kyren Williams’ timetable to return from his ankle injury.
Cornerback Adoree Jackson and defensive tackle Leonard Williams are both names to watch out for at the deadline as well. Parris Campbell, who has been benched for Wan’Dale Robinson, could be sent off for a late-round swap. That is the most likely move for the Giants to make, though it’s also the least impactful.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Broncos
The Broncos, who are definitely not having a firesale at the deadline, are reportedly listening to offers.
The Broncos are NOT having a fire sale at the trade deadline, but they will listen to offers. https://t.co/KwgYgVWjxs pic.twitter.com/5qIqgzUKne
— Dianna Russini (@DMRussini) October 21, 2023
With a win versus the Chiefs, Denver gave themselves an outside chance at making the playoffs, but they are still a struggling team that has already made their intentions of moving on from veterans and giving young guys more reps crystal clear. It makes a ton of sense for them to rebuild from the ground up, starting by moving on from veterans from the previous regime. Jeudy wouldn’t incur a large cap hit this year for a team acquiring him and they would keep him on his fifth-year option in 2024. Courtland Sutton is also a possible trade candidate, though out-playing Jeudy through two months under Sean Payton should ensure he stays on the roster.
There are a few other names to monitor for the Broncos. Left tackle Garett Bolles has one year left on his deal and could fetch a pretty penny. Linebacker Josey Jewell is on an expiring contract and rookie linebacker Drew Sanders was drafted as a potential replacement for him in the spring. The Broncos also have a pair of standout players in their secondary—Justin Simmons and Patrick Surtain—that teams will call about, though I don’t see Denver parting ways with either player.
Danielle Hunter, EDGE, Vikings
Hunter has nine sacks and a dozen TFLs, which is also the most in the league. Trade rumors have surrounded Hunter for nearly two years, but the Vikings patched things over with a one-year deal in the offseason. Unless they can agree on a new deal in the spring, Hunter will become a free agency and earn a massive contract if he keeps this pace up. With Kirk Cousins out for the year, Minnesota should be ready to put their season to bed and send Hunter off as a half-season rental for a team looking to make a playoff push. According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, the Vikings “are at least listening” to offers for Hunter.
From @NFLGameDay Kickoff: While #Vikings QB Kirk Cousins isn’t expected to be traded, Danielle Hunter has been the subject of trade calls. pic.twitter.com/ZtYLGaU2vZ
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 23, 2023
Left guard Ezra Cleveland gets an honorable mention as a trade candidate as well. Cleveland played right guard as a rookie and was a three-year starter at left tackle at Boise State before being drafted by Minnesota in the second round. The Vikings signed left guard Dalton Risner early in the year and could view him as a comparable replacement for Cleveland. If that’s the case, the Vikings would be better off getting picks in return for Cleveland, an impending free agent, than keeping him on the roster.
Brian Burns, EDGE, Panthers
Burns has been the subject of trade rumors for a while. A struggling Carolina team was reportedly offered a pair of first-round picks for Burns by the Rams last fall. They obviously did not accept the offer and will now receive considerably less in return if they do move their star pass-rusher. Burns has four sacks and a forced fumble through six games. He is dealing with an elbow injury and is questionable for Week 8.
Frank Reich said he’s been told there’s a chance Brian Burns can play Sunday. The Panthers coach said Burns’ elbow injury and status not related to the trade deadline. pic.twitter.com/bg50eUGkml
— David Newton (@DNewtonespn) October 27, 2023
Frank Reich insisted that the injury wasn’t related to the trade rumors, though we should take that with a grain of salt. Set to hit free agency in the spring, Burns is the ideal trade chip for the Panthers to recover some of the draft ammo they lost via the deal to land Bryce Young. Terrace Marshall will also be on the block, though the Panthers won’t get more than a late-round swap for a receiver with 742 receiving yards and one score through two and a half season.
Chase Young & Montez Sweat, EDGE, Commanders
Per Bleach Report’s Jordan Schultz, the Commanders would need a second or third-round pick for Young or Sweat. Schultz pointed out that keeping both impending free agents is a tall order.
Talking #Commanders and Chase Young/Montez Sweat ahead of Tuesday's trade deadline.
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) October 25, 2023
🎥: @BleacherReport @brgridiron pic.twitter.com/FjBHeeld9w
It makes sense for the Commanders to get some draft capital for one of the two now and re-sign the other after the season concludes.
Young has struggled with injuries throughout his career and may not garner as much interest around the league, but he’s playing at an elite level this year. Pro Football Focus has him with a top-15 pass-rush win rate this year. He ranks top-five in total pressures. ESPN’s numbers have a similar view on him and see Sweat as a few rungs below Young.
Pass rush win rate at edge, 2023
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 25, 2023
Chase Young: 24%
Montez Sweat: 8%
Sweat is 27 and probably (?) viewed more highly by most of the league. Young is 24.
If I'm the Commanders and trading one and re-signing the other, I'd prefer to deal Sweat.
It would make far more sense for the Commanders to keep Young, who is only 24 years old, and bet on him realizing his upside in 2024 and beyond. But they had the chance to put another year on his contract via the fifth-year option and chose not to do so. They may not view him as highly as the advanced metrics do. Expect The Rich Get Richer teams like the Chiefs, Eagles, and Bills to be circling Washington’s roster like buzzards on Halloween.
Jacoby Brissett, QB, Commanders
With another loss in the books from Week 8, there’s no reason for the Commanders to hold onto veterans who won’t be contributing to the team down the road. Brissett may be a better quarterback than Washington’s starter, Sam Howell, but he is on a one-year deal and is the prototype for a journeyman thrower. Assuming the Commanders aren’t harboring playoff aspirations deep in their hearts anymore, Brissett is far more valuable as a draft pick than as a backup.
There are two obvious spots for him to land. He excelled as the stopgap start in Cleveland last year, throwing for 2,608 yards, 12 scores, and six interceptions in 11 starts. Deshaun Watson, who was suspended last year to pave the way for Brissett, is dealing with a shoulder injury. He is likely to miss at least a few more weeks. The other spot is Minnesota. The Vikings lost Cousins to a torn Achilles’ tendon on Sunday. The most prudent approach for the roster is to simply blow it up and send every player of value they have packing. However, teams rarely commit to a full tank like they are playing Madden. Instead, the Vikings will likely toe the line, moving on from players like Hunter and Cleveland while still holding onto their playoff hopes. At 4-4, those hopes are legitimate in Minnesota. They could acquire Brissett for an early Day 3 pick and attempt a playoff push while still keeping one eye on the 2024 season.
Hunter Renfrow, WR, Raiders
After topping 1,000 yards in 2021, injuries derailed Renfrow’s follow-up campaign. Then, in 2023, the additions of Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers buried Renfrow on the depth chart. He has topped out at two catches and 23 yards in a game this season. Schultz described Renfrow’s relationship with head coach Josh McDaniels as “fractured.” He also noted that the Raiders have been looking for a trade partner for Renfrow since last season. Renfrow signed a two-year, $32 million contract extension a few years back and no GM has any desire to take on the remainder of his bloated deal. If he remains on the roster through the end of the season, the Raiders will cut him for $8.2 million in savings with a $5.5 million dead cap hit. Renfrow will need to take a pay cut or Las Vegas will have to take on a large portion of the remainder of his deal to facilitate a trade.
Dalvin Cook, RB, Jets
Despite all signs pointing toward Cook being in the midst of a precipitous decline, the Jets took the plunge on him this offseason with a one-year, $7 million deal. Cook operated as New York’s lead back for a few weeks but was dreadfully inefficient. He currently ranks 47th out of 52 qualified backs (min. 30 carries) in PFF’s rush yards over expected per carry model. Hall has been more explosive than Cook at every turn and the Jets have been dishing out their carries accordingly.
The Jets have limited Cook to 16 carries over his last four games. Unhappy with his role, the veteran runner is seemingly ready to escape New York.
Dalvin Cook is tilting. Asking to talk trade, per ESPN. pic.twitter.com/WmXW52ElT4
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 27, 2023
Cook is fully in “washed” territory but could handle the body blows for a team in need of an extra man in their backfield. Ironically, one of the few backfields where Cook would be the best option by rush yards over expected is in Minnesota. Cook obviously knows the Vikings’ system as well.
The Rams have also made a habit of swapping running backs with the Vikings, sending Cam Akers to Minnesota before claiming Myles Gaskin off waivers from them. Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is a Sean McVay disciple, meaning there is a lot of overlap between the two offenses. The Rams could get Cook for virtually no cost and he would be able to get up to speed in short order, providing a stopgap option until Williams and Ronnie Rivers come off injured reserve.
Bonus!
Everyone below has had their name mentioned in trade rumors near or on the day of the deadline. This information will be out of date within a few hours so I’ll keep the section, but if you’re sweating the deadline like I am, here are the new names entering the fray.
Jaylon Johnson, Bears
Johnson has been granted permission to seek a trade by Chicago. Entering the final year of his deal, Johnson wants an extension but Chicago has been reluctant to give him what he is looking for. This could simply be a tactic to rein in his expectations in contract negotiations, but we did see the Bears send Roquan Smith off at the deadline last year, so a deal is certainly in play.
Jameis Wintons, Saints
Including Taysom Hill, the Saints have four quarterbacks on their active roster. Derek Carr isn’t getting benched so Winston is only there to be a backup, but that role could theoretically be filled by Hill or rookie Jake Haener, leaving Winston as a valuable trade asset. Winston is possibly the best quarterback on the block today, putting the Vikings, who are most in need of a starter for the remainder of the year, in position to make a run. They are reportedly eying the free agent pool as well.
Joshua Dobbs, Cardinals
Dobbs was supposedly benched for Week 9, but the real answer is almost certainly that he is expected to be dealt at the deadline.
Plot twist: #Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon told reporters that either Kyler Murray or rookie Clayton Tune -- not Joshua Dobbs -- will start Sunday against Cleveland. Murray remains on IR but obviously getting close.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) October 30, 2023
A reunion with the Browns makes too much sense not to happen. Dobbs signed with the Browns in the 2022 offseason and served as a backup until Deshaun Watson returned from his suspension. He rejoined the team this offseason but was traded to Arizona just before Week 1.
Ezekiel Elliott, Patriots
Sources: RB-needy teams have reached out to the #Patriots about the availability of RB Ezekiel Elliott.
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) October 31, 2023
Elliott will be a free agent again after this season. The 2x All-Pro has 260 yards and 2 TDs this year. @BleacherReport pic.twitter.com/ixuoa5zVcB
Zeke started the year off with a few good games but has since regressed to his the 2022 version of himself. He has fallen to a career low in yards after contact per carry and missed tackles forced per attempt. With no use for a two-down plodder on a one-year deal, the Pats could scoop up a late-round pick in exchange for Zeke.
Davante Adams, Raiders
Sources to @BleacherReport: #Raiders WR Davante Adams and his camp spoke to the team earlier this month about the possibility of a change of scenery. Las Vegas made it emphatically clear they won’t move him.
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) October 31, 2023
We’ll see if anything changes after Monday night’s game, with the trade… pic.twitter.com/X9Do3LMpIT
Schultz continues to grind the rumor mill with this scoop on Adams. Adams has openly questioned the Raiders’ direction as a franchise this year. His camp likely floated the idea of a trade earlier this year only to have it shut down. Now, after a pathetic Monday Night Football loss to the Lions, that sentiment has been leaked. It’s likely too late in the process for a trade to happen. There are only a few hours left until the deadline and a deal for Adams would likely include a first-round pick. That’s a big commitment to make on less than 24 hours of notice. But, this is one to watch out for.
Tee Higgins, Bengals
Higgins is not expected to be moved, but teams are reportedly making calls. Higgins is an impending free agent and the Bengals are about to have the GDP of a small country tied up in Joe Burrow’s contract plus Ja’Marr Chase’s upcoming extension. Even though he’s only under contract for the remainder of the reason, it would still take a fortune for the Bengals to move Higgins. This is another deal that looks unlikely to happen.
