Patrick

Mahomes

2023: It was a season of career lows for the best player in the league, with Mahomes slumping not just from a counting stats perspective - Patrick Lavon Mahomes II threw for only 27 touchdowns - but advanced, as well. His average intended air yards fell from 7.5 in 2022 to a Daniel Jones-ian 6.6. On attempts of 20-plus yards, 19 quarterbacks - including Desmond Ridder - generated more gains. The caveat, of course, is that the Chiefs won yet another Super Bowl, but fantasy managers received “only” QB7 returns by average points. 

What’s changed: Although it’s tempting to believe the Chiefs will stick with the game manager approach after it worked so well the past two seasons, every offseason move has signaled otherwise. The front office finally addressed the receiver corps by signing Marquise Brown and using a first-round pick on Xavier Worthy, and Mahomes has said head coach Andy Reid prioritized the deep ball in offseason practices. No one wants a sub-7.0 aDOT again, or 4.5 touchdown percentage, for that matter. 

Outlook: Although the days of endless deep bombs might be gone for good, Mahomes’ improved supporting cast will almost certainly have him regressing to the explosive play mean. A once-in-a-lifetime player still on the right side of 30, Mahomes should never fall beyond the top five quarterbacks in fantasy drafts.