Geno

Smith

2023: Smith made another Pro Bowl but predictably regressed from his 2022 career year, watching his touchdown rate dip from 5.2 to 4.0 as he lost more than five points off his completion percentage. Smith remained a completion rate over expected darling and maintained a solid EPA, suggesting his counting stat fall-off was a bit fluky. Whatever it was, 20 touchdowns in 15 games did not pay the bills for fantasy managers.

What’s changed: Smith watched QBs coach Dave Canales go last offseason and now he’s lost his entire coaching staff. The Pete Carroll regime has been replaced in part by ex-University of Washington play-caller Ryan Grubb at OC. It’s an exciting hire considering what Grubb accomplished at UW, but the leap from the PAC-12 to the NFC West is massive. Smith maintains one of the league’s better receiver trios, though Tyler Lockett is another year older and Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s rookie season was unimpressive.

Outlook: Smith can spin the ball and thread tight windows, but his lack of a dual-threat means he needs to be in the 30-touchdown range to really get into the QB1 streamer mix. That’s bad news since his 30-score 2022 has all the hallmarks of a career outlier.