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Quarterbacks
Sam Hartman @ Louisville - $6,800 = 22nd - Projected Points = 17.6 - PPT = 2.59
In a shortened slate with only 11 games on it, the fact that Sam Hartman is priced 22nd on the salary chart is shocking. Last game he lit up UNC for 429 yards, four passing TDs and a rushing touchdown for good measure. This week he draws a listless Louisville team that has been thinned out by key opt-outs on the offensive side and a defense that is allowing 27 PPG, including 31 points or more in three of their last four games.
Wake is running the seventh most plays per game in the country with an average of 77.5, while gaining an average of 6.3 yards per play which ranks 34th. Their 321 Passing YPG ranks 20th in the country and Hartman now finally has both Jaquari Roberson and Donavon Greene healthy and ready to roll. I expect another standout performance from the Wake Forest signal caller at a discounted price that allows you to stack your skill positions.
Taulia Tagovailoa vs. Rutgers - $7,100 = 16th - Projected Points = 24.2 - PPT = 3.41
The younger brother of Miami Dolphins QB Tua has only started four games in his fledgling career, with mixed results. He struggled on the road against two top-25 opponents with stingy defenses in Northwestern and Indiana. He threw one touchdown to six interceptions in those contests which is hardly a surprise considering the level of competition and his relative inexperience.
Conversely, Tagovailoa excelled against lower rung Big Ten teams such as Penn State and Minnesota, racking up 676 passing yards and a six-to-one TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 72 yards and two touchdowns. The young signal caller has been quite affordable for DFS purposes, posting 3.51 Points Per Thousand against Penn State and an absurd 9.17 PPT against the Gophers. By any metric that’s an impressive return on investment that won many people money who were smart enough to roster him those weekends.
This week he takes on a Rutgers team that is allowing 34 PPG on the year while ranking 111th in the country in passes defensed and 107th in sack rate. Tagovailoa should feast on the soft underbelly of the Rutgers defense.
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Top Projected QB Scorers
Micale Cunningham - $8,900 - 28.3
Mac Jones - $9,500 - 27.4
D’Eriq King - $9,300 - 27
Taulia Tagovailoa - $7,100 - 24.2
Jordan Travis - $7,000 - 23.4
Running Backs
Christian Beal-Smith @ Louisville - $6,600 = 10th - Projected Points = 13.6 - PPT = 2.05
With Kenneth Walker now opting out, “CBS” is the direct beneficiary of a full rushing load for the Demon Deacon offense that is averaging the 20th most rushing attempts in the country while racking up 171 YPG on the ground. As stated with Hartman, Wake plays lightning fast, averaging 77.5 plays per game, and is ruthlessly efficient in posting 42 points per game which is good for the 10th most in the country. In short, Wake Forest is one of the most underrated potent offenses in the country, and now Beal-Smith has the backfield all to himself.
I’m calling for 20+ points this week against a passive Louisville defense, and a struggling offense that is missing their two most dangerous weapons in Javian Hawkins and Tutu Atwell.
Jalen Berger @ Iowa - $5,400 = 19th - Projected Points = 10.9 - PPT = 2.02
The four-star true freshman has only appeared in three games this season, but he has made a distinct impact upon his arrival on campus. Most pre-season prognosticators had pegged Nakia Watson as the likely successor to Jonathan Taylor in the Wisconsin running back dynasty. However much like when Taiwan Deal was passed over by Taylor in his freshman season, Berger has surpassed the mediocre Nakia Watson in relatively short order.
In his first three games, the freshman tailback has logged exactly 15 carries per contest while averaging 89 yards per game and sporting a 5.9 YPC. A model of consistency despite his young age, Berger has performed well against upper echelon Big Ten defenses Indiana and Northwestern. Though Wisconsin’s reputation is that of a slow, methodical offensive system, they have actually averaged 75 plays per game, which ranks 22nd in the country. With top WR Danny Davis out, I am expecting a heavy dose of Jalen Berger who could have an official coming out party if things break right against Iowa. Considering he’s only the 19th ranked RB salary-wise, the freshman is a worthy stab for a moderate investment.
Keyvone Lee vs. Michigan State - $5,100 = 20th - Projected Points = 10.8 - PPT = 1.98
When Journey Brown was forced to retire from football due to an undiagnosed heart condition and Noah Cain went down to injury on their very first drive of the season, Devyn Ford was tasked with taking the reins in the PSU backfield. He carried 20 times for just 69 yards, then followed up with back-to-back showings of exactly 36 yards. In six games, he has only eclipsed 4.5 YPC once. When it comes to the eyeball test, Ford lacks the kind of explosiveness and punch usually associated with a Penn State bell cow running back. He feels like a 2020 version of Ricky Slade who is acting as a placeholder before a better option comes along.
When Ford was injured against Iowa, an opportunity presented itself for four-star freshman Keyvone Lee (6’0/220) to carve out a niche in the Nittany Lion backfield. He handled a full compliment of snaps the following week against Michigan, carrying 22 times for 134 yards with a 6.1 YPC and a touchdown in the victory. Lee then led Penn State in carries with 17 while gaining 95 yards and sporting a 5.6 YPC last week at Rutgers. He runs with a physical style, attacking the hole and rarely shying away from contact. Lee fits the mold of departed PSU legends Journey Brown and Saquon Barkley and is my bet to take over the Penn State RB room in short order. He did exit PSU’s game late in the fourth quarter last week, so as long as he’s good to go, I want the burly freshman toting the rock for me in several DFS lineups.
Top Projected RB Scorers
Najee Harris - $9,200 - 19.3
Larry Rountree - $7,100 - 18.3
C.J. Marable - $8,400 - 15.8
Isaih Pacheco - $4,500 - 15.3
Jake Funk - $6,900 - 15.2
Wide Receivers
Donavon Greene @ Louisville - $5,600 = 18th - Projected Points = 6.5 - PPT = 1.16
With star receiver Sage Surratt moving on, promising redshirt freshman Donavon Greene was expected to fill his shoes. Fate intervened as Greene sustained a back injury early on that slowed down his productivity as Jaquari Roberson took over number one wide receiver duties. With Roberson drawing the attention of opposing defenses, Greene showed the kind of ability that had CFF owners drooling by catching eight passes for 170 yards and two touchdowns in his last game against UNC.
With Wake Forest now facing off against a soft Louisville defense that will be forced to defend 75+ plays thanks to a punch-less offense that has been gutted by opt-outs, Greene is primed to put up another 100-yard performance. He is priced well below his at $5,600, which ranks 18th in salary for the 11 game main slate. I’m predicting a 15 point+ showing from Greene this week and am extremely high on Wake Forest’s offense in general this week.
Dee Wiggins vs. UNC - $4,600 = 30th - Projected Points = 11.1 - PPT = 2.41
Wiggins took a little while to get going as the offense adjusted to new QB D’Eriq King. He failed to gain more than 25 yards or score a touchdown in three of his first four games. However the Hurricane wideout has emerged since the calendar turned to November, averaging 16.6 points per game over his last three contests as Miami’s passing attack hit it’s stride and Wiggins has established himself as the preferred outside target for King.
UNC is winning games thanks to an offense that is averaging 41 PPG. If Miami is going to beat the Tarheels, they are going to have to score with them. That shouldn’t be a problem, as UNC is allowing 29 PPG while Miami is putting up 35 PPG and distributing 291 passing yards per game. On the passing side, OC Rhett Lashlee is putting the ball in the air 34 times per game on average, though I am expecting an output closer to 40 passes in order to keep pace with UNC’s offensive juggernaut. Wiggins is a steal as the 30th priced wideout in a game that should be one of the premier shootouts of this weekend’s slate.
Shameen Jones @ Maryland - $3,400 = 83rd - Projected Points = 9 - PPT = 2.65
Every DFS lineup needs a sub-$3,500 punt play to help squeeze in their bankable high-rent district investments. I’m projecting another points explosion between two of the worst defenses in the Big Ten, as each team is allowing 33 PPG while ranking 92nd and 94th for interceptions per game. Though Maryland has the more explosive offense, Rutgers is throwing the 25th most passes in the country with an average of 36.4 per game and will likely be forced to increase that pace in order to keep up with the Terps. Rutgers is also running 74 plays per game which ranks 23rd nationally.
While the much more expensive Bo Melton has been the Scarlet Knights’ top receiving option, Shameen Jones has emerged as a legitimate threat for a fraction of the price. Jones has posted at least 22.7 points in two of his last three games and stands to gain from a game script likely to favor the pass against the Terrapins. He is far and away the sub-$4,000 receiver with the most big game potential given the relatively high passing volume from RU and the likelihood of a high scoring affair between to 33+ point defenses. He’s my punt play of choice for the Saturday main slate.
Top Projected WR Scorers
Devonta Smith - 10,000 - 18.8
Dyami Brown - $6,600 - 16.5
Calvin Austin III - $7,900 - 16.4
Bo Melton - $7,000 - 16.4
Treylon Burks - $6,000 - 2.62
