We have yet another robust week of CFB Player Props to analyze from our friends over at Draft Kings. I like a few of these plays very much, let’s dig in.
Treylon Burks @ Missouri - O/U 87.5
Burks has vaulted himself into the Biletnikoff conversation with his play recently. He eclipsed 90 yards in four of his last five games and has done it in style. The only time he hasn’t crossed the 87.5 yard mark was against a Florida team that was obsessed with slowing him down. If we’re spotting season long trends, he has gone over the mark in five-of-seven games, with the only other Under coming against Mississippi State back on October 3 when he got injured after only one catch. I”m understandably considering that game an outlier.
OC Kendall Briles is a legitimate offensive guru who knows where his bread is buttered. It’s understandable for a team to struggle a bit when installing a new system, then improve as the season unfolds. Arkansas has ditched all memory of the failed Chad Morris era and embraced a pass-first approach behind experienced starting QB Feleipe Franks, averaging 253 passing yards per game. Their opponent Missouri has allowed 227 YPG passing while averaging 267 yards passing themselves on offense. I’m all-in on Burks cranking out another 100-yard performance. He’s a strong Over play this week.
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Javon McKinley @ Syracuse - O/U 85.5
My only assumption on this line is that the oddsmakers over at Draft Kings are expecting Notre Dame to throttle the hapless Orange so badly that the Irish take their foot off the gas pedal by halftime and put their offense in cruise control for the entire second half. McKinley started the season slow, missing their game against Duke and then only catching two passes or less in three of his first four games played as ND searched for their replacement for Pittsburgh Steelers star Chase Claypool. However he has solidified his deep-threat role over the last four, surpassing the 93 yard plateau in three of those contests while registering at least five receptions in all four.
The pecking order is clearly established, Bennett Skowronek is the red-zone vulture, while McKinley gets on top of the secondary and breaks the big plays. This week he faces an inept Syracuse team that just wants the season to end and is on the verge of quitting on their head coach. He’s bound to break a few big plays and is a great shot to hit the Over against a fairly low 85.5 mark.
Tank Bigsby vs. Texas A&M - O/U 72.5 Rushing
Seth Williams vs. Texas A&M - O/U 74.5 Receiving
I watched the entire Auburn vs. Alabama game last week, as I have Seth Williams in CFF and laid heavy money against Bama WR John Metchie to go Under 82 yards receiving, which he did. Let it never be said that I don’t sacrifice for the good of this column! In regards to Bigsby, the eyeball test was a dire warning of what happens when a talented back tries to play through a debilitating injury. He carried 11 times for only 39 yards and recorded a long rush of only six yards. Yikes. He was clearly still not right in his recovery from a hip injury sustained the previous week against Tennessee when he exited the game after just three totes. He was observed on the sideline shaking his head and contorting his body in an attempt to loosen up a hip ailment that never got right. He was listed as a true “questionable” call to play against a stout Texas A&M defense that smashed LSU last week and is looking to protect their claim as the fifth ranked team in the country. This is a clear Unde72.5 play due to injury.
On Williams’s side, the athletic wideout’s role in the offense has steadily declined as Gus Malzahn had tried, and failed, to force feed him with 13 targets, catching only four, against South Carolina back in Week 7. His catch rate of 48% is positively dismal and fellow wideouts Eli Stove and Anthony Schwartz have taken on a more prominent role due to Williams’ inefficiency. Last week, he caught only three-of-nine passes for 17 yards in the pivotal Iron Bowl, and the week before he only managed five receptions for 52 yards against Tennessee. With Williams failing to surpass the 70 yard mark in his last three games, i’m betting for a continuation of the trend and taking the Under 74.5 yards.
Bijan Robinson @ Kansas State - 64.5
This week, former starting RB Keaontay Ingram announced he will be departing the Texas program. A large unsaid contributing factor into his decision is the emergence of five’star true freshman Bijan Robinson who has wrested control of the Texas backfield and marginalized the sophomore who obviously had hoped to stave off the uber-talented neophyte. Though Bijan started out slowly averaging only five carries in his first three contests, he has gradually received an increased share of work recently. Robinson has carried at least 12 times for 54 yards in each of the last four games, while rushing for a career high 113 yards two games ago against an excellent West Virginia defense. Last game against a similarly strong Iowa State defense, he logged 16 carries for 54 yards in the loss.
This week he has the distinct pleasure of lighting up a Kansas State defense that has gotten destroyed by Baylor, West Virginia and Iowa State over the past four games. Tom Herman is feeling the heat and will want to showcase his new bell cow in a prime matchup. I’m predicting Robinson obliterates the 64.5 mark while announcing the arrival of the Longhorns next great back. Pound the Over on my favorite play of the week.
Last Week: 4-0
Overall: 37-16 (70%)