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Last week I published By the Numbers: Statistical Comparisons for 2022 Quarterback Class, which looked at player comps for quarterbacks that Thor Nystrom mocked to the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft.
This article, published with the help of the the Box Score Scout tool that can be found over at RotoViz, used statistical comparisons to see how players in this year’s draft comped to past and present NFL talent (since 2000).
Thor mocked four quarterbacks to the first round in his latest mock draft, but also had five wide receivers going in the first.
Not wanting to overlook the receiver talent that could go in the first round of this year’s draft, I am heading back to the Box Score Scout to see how they comp to recent players.
NOTE: To understand the process and how the RotoViz Box Score Scout Works, go back to my first article, where I explain how the comps are found.
Treylon Burks - Arkansas
Thor’s Mock Draft 1.0: New York Jets - 10th overall
In recent weeks, former Arkansas wide receiver Treylon Burks has gained a lot of hype as the potential top wide receiver of the draft. Thor added to that hype by making Burks the overall WR1 of this class when he mocked him to the Jets with the 10th overall pick. During his final two seasons at Arkansas, Burks totaled 118 receptions for 1,943 yards and 11 touchdowns, and also rushed 29 times for 187 yards and one score.
In his final season he posted a line of 67-1123-11 and had a receiving yards market share of 42%.
Desperate for wide receiver talent, here are the comps for Burks after we apply first round (top-32) draft capital to him in the Box Score Scout.
Looking at the comps for Burks, the easiest way to summarize what we see here would be to say that this is very good. Several good players pop in Burks’ comp, and the Sim Scores are relatively strong, with the weakest being DeAndre Hopkins/Alshon Jeffery at 70, which is still decent.
Given the elite list of names we see here, I decided to take a look at how each of these receivers performed over the first three years of their NFL careers.
Things remain pretty strong for Burks’ comps after you look at their production over their first three years in the league. Certainly guys like Earl Bennett and Anthony Miller won’t get fans too excited, but fans would love to get a receiver who produces like Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins or Jordy Nelson for the next 10 years.
Hakeem Nicks even had a solid six-year career with the Giants, which included back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in his second and third years.
Burks has a big week coming up with the NFL Scouting Combine on the horizon. Already viewed as an elite talent, he could shoot up draft boards with an explosive combine.
Chris Olave - Ohio State
Thor’s Mock Draft 1.0: New Orleans Saints - 18th overall
Former Ohio State wide receiver Chris Olave strung together a strong career with the Buckeyes. In four seasons, he posted a receiving line of 176-2711-36, but had 729 or more yards in each of his final three season.
Saving his best for last, Olave went for 65-936-13 (14.4 YPR) in 2021, and posted a receiving yards market share of 22%. His market share from last season is a steep drop off from the 37% receiving yards market share he enjoyed in 2020, but the Buckeyes also had two receivers go for over 1,000-yards.
The Saints have several things to address in the 2022 season, including a salary cap situation that is unlike any other in the league (-$80,390,406). With receiver being one of those needs, and the future of Michael Thomas being up in the air, Olave in this spot is a solid pick.
Olave gets a mixed bag of comps here, with names as exciting as Deebo Samuel, to as underwhelming as Laquon Treadwell (who doesn’t have a strong Sim Score).
His closest comps of Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie would be incredibly underwhelming, as the two were barely role players in the NFL. Massaquoi posted a receiving line of 118-1745-7 in four seasons with the Browns, while Robiskie spent five seasons in the league going 43-485-4.
Other close comps like Samuel or the Colts’ Michael Pittman are much more enticing. Samuel enjoyed a tremendous 2021 with the 49ers when he caught 77 passes for 1,405 yards and six touchdowns, and also rushed 59 times for 365 yards and another eight scores. Pittman went for over 1,000-yards in his second year with the Colts and also found the end zone six times.
If there’s one alarming thing to Olave’s game it’s his inability to make yards after the catch.
Per Pro Football Focus, Olave has a career YAC of 3.7 and has just 654 total yards after catch for his career. For some perspective, Treylon Burks had 607 YAC in 2021 with Arkansas and averaged 7.6 YAC per reception.
Of the five receivers Thor mocked in the first round, Olave’s career 3.7 YAC per reception ranks dead last. The fourth ranked receiver of this group is fellow Buckeye Garrett Wilson (5.2). PFF.com also shows that Olave forced just nine missed tackles in his career. Alabama wide receiver Jameson Williams is next fewest with 15 missed tackles forced, but didn’t see significant playing time until 2021, when he forced 12 missed tackles.
Olave could flip the narrative and become a YAC guy at the next level. But with stiffer competition at the NFL and a four-year body of work that suggests that isn’t his game, it’s unlikely. He will likely be best served as a field stretcher and contested catch guy.
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Garrett Wilson - Ohio State
Thor’s Mock Draft 1.0: Las Vegas Raiders - 22nd overall
Moving to the 22nd overall pick, we get back-to-back Ohio State receivers off the board with the Raiders’ selection of Garrett Wilson. The Raiders are in need of wide receiver help after slot receiver Hunter Renfrow led the receiver group in 2021 (103-1038-9) and the now departed Nelson Agholor (48-896-8) led their receiver group in 2020.
Former 2020 first round pick Henry Ruggs was cut from the team following a horrific car accident that took place last season, which further adds to the need for the Raiders to take a shot on a receiver in the first round this year.
With Wilson mocked to the Raiders, here is a look at his player comps.
Percy Harvin comes in as the strongest comp for Wilson, which would be truly something, as Harvin was one of the most explosive players in the NFL during his prime years with the Vikings. But it’s unlikely Wilson brings the same rushing upside that Harvin did in his career.
Underwhelming NFL producers Justin Hunter, Titus Young and Phillip Dorsett never posted more than 607 receiving yards in a single season (Young), with Dante Pettis’ best season coming as a rookie (27-467-5).
During his three seasons at Ohio State, Wilson totaled 143 receptions for 2313 yards and 23 touchdowns. In 2021, Wilson went for 70-1058-12 and saw 27% of the team’s receiving yards market share playing alongside Olave and breakout star Jaxon Smith-Njigba (95-1606-9). Wilson was one of the top receivers in the nation last season in yards per route run (3.0) and missed tackles forced (19), and ranked 40th in yards after catch (417).
Playing with a loaded receiving corps that should have had three receivers with 1,000+ yards had Olave not opted out of the Rose Bowl, it speaks well of Wilson to see him top the 1,000-yard mark in his final season. Wilson went for 100 or more yards in five games last season, and closed out his final three games with 27 receptions for 371 yards and six touchdowns.
Wilson has a chance to be a very good NFL player. If he goes to the Raiders, we will need to see if quarterback Derek Carr and company can unlock him, something they’ve struggled to do with Ruggs and 2020 pick Bryan Edwards.
Drake London - USC
Thor’s Mock Draft 1.0: Buffalo Bills - 25th overall
Drake London probably goes much higher in this year’s draft if not for a fractured ankle that ended his 2021 season in Week 9. But just how good was London last year?
Prior to going down, London had posted a receiving line of 88-1084-7 and was averaging a blistering 135.5 yards per game. Of his 1,084 yards, 460 came by way of yards after catch (57.5 YAC/gm) while his 3.52 yards per route run was good for fifth best on the year per PFF.com.
London would finish the year with the 27th most receiving yards in the nation amongst FBS players, but was the only player to have played fewer than 11 games while going for 1,000+ yards. He played only eight games.
So what about his comps?
In large, London projects like the star we’d expect him to be. At 6-foot-5, he has the potential to be a legitimate downfield threat and red zone target. His 19 contested catches in 2021 led the nation despite the fact that he played in six fewer games than San Diego State’s Jesse Matthews, who had 16 contested catches.
London’s top comp, Reuben Randle, played just four seasons in the league with the New York Giants. During his time in the league he amassed 2,644 yards and 20 touchdowns, with his best season coming in 2014 when he went for 71-938-3. London having a career trajectory of Randle would be an underwhelming one to say the least, but he follows that comp up with a star-studded trio of CeeDee Lamb, DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley, who have all enjoyed successful NFL careers thus far.
As Thor mentions in his article, London has the potential to pair nicely with the rocket arm of quarterback Josh Allen. Playing opposite of Stefon Diggs and with other respected receivers like Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis, London could be the final piece of a potentially elite receiving corps for the Bills in 2022.
Jameson Williams - Alabama
Thor’s Mock Draft 1.0: Miami Dolphins - 29th overall
As if losing to Georgia in the national championship was a bad enough ending to the 2021 season for Alabama fans, they had to watch Jameson Williams exit the game with a torn ACL, bringing an end to a breakout season for the junior wideout.
Williams transferred to Alabama for the 2021 season after spending the first two years of his career at Ohio State stuck behind Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson.
During his time at Ohio State, Williams caught just 15 passes for 266 yards and three touchdowns (17.7 YPR). Upon transferring to Alabama, Williams immediately established himself as one of the premiere field stretchers in the nation. Boasting an average depth of target of 14.5 yards, Williams finished last season as the WR12 in yards per route run (3.12), and was fourth in the nation in yards after catch (722). His 6.3 YAC/reception tied for sixth best with Treylon Burks.
In his lone season at Alabama, Williams posted a receiving line of 79-1572-15 and had a 31% receiving yards market share. He had an elite breakout season while playing in the nation’s toughest conference, and in his first game against Georgia, went for 7-184-2 in what was an SEC Championship game victory.
Taking a look at Williams’ comps, the upside appears to be utterly ridiculous with strong Sim Scores next to some elite names. Flameouts like Cody Latimer, Justin Hunter and Laquon Treadwell would be the obvious worst case scenario here, but if he enjoys a career similar to that of any of his top-5 comes, he should stick around in the league for a long time.
Williams likely has more long speed than top comps Michael Thomas, Tee Higgins and DeAndre Hopkins, as neither cracked 4.5 in the 40-yard dash, but unfortunately we won’t get to see him run before the draft. Williams reportedly ran a 4.40 in high school and beat that time at Alabama, although no official time has been recorded.
At 6-foot-2, 189-pounds, the sky could be the limit for Williams once he recovers from his torn ACL surgery. He is reportedly already ahead of schedule in his recovery, as surgery showed a “clean tear” per an article on 247Sports.com. He should be ready to suit up at some point during the NFL season, and could turn into a tremendous value for any team that gets him late in the first round. Pairing him with second-year wideout Jaylen Waddle, another Alabama product, could give the Dolphins a lethal receiver combo for years to come.
