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Week 0 CFB DFS Optimizer Lineup Analysis

Jake Haener

Jake Haener

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Our long national suffering has finally ended! After months, upon months of watching the surge of interest in College Fantasy Football, Devy and the fast rising Campus 2 Canton leagues the 2021 college football season commences this weekend! Here’s a quick pair of popular lineups utilizing the NBC Sports Edge CFB DFS Optimizer Tool:

NBC Sports Edge DFS Optimized Draft Kings Lineup:

QB - Jake Haener | Fresno State vs. UConn | $9,700 - 27.7 points - 2.86 Points Per Thousand

RB - Ronnie Rivers | Fresno State vs. UConn | $7,800 - 27.5 points - 3.53 PPT

RB - Brittain Brown | UCLA vs. Hawaii | $5,600 - 22.7 points - 4.05 PPT

WR - Keric Wheatfall | Fresno State vs. UConn | $5,500 - 15.5 points - 2.21 PPT

WR - Jared Smart | Hawaii @ UCLA | $6,200 - 15.3 points - 2.47 PPT

WR - Omar Manning | Nebraska @ Illinois |$4,000 - 14.4 points - 3.60 PPT

Flex - Kevin Mensah | UConn @ Fresno State | $4,200 - 20.2 points - 4.81 PPT

S-Flex - Adrian Martinez | Nebraska @ Illinois | $6,800 - 24.2 points - 3.59 PPT

Total - $49,800

The optimizer leans on the Adrian Martinez/Omar Manning stack against first year Illini HC Brett Bielema that is renowned for a run-heavy game script. The logic is sound considering Illinois has the lowest rated secondary in the Big Ten, allowing a paltry 69.6 completion percentage last season. Keric Wheatfall is in almost all the tool’s findings, as he is predicted to outscore 2020 standout Jalen Cropper despite a $1,800 spread between the two. The Rivers and Brittain Brown combo is going to be a staple of many chalk lineups, but Zach Charbonnet could be a nice contrarian play here at $5,300 and with UCLA likely to sit on the ball in the second half if they get a comfortable lead with a prime-time matchup against LSU on tap next weekend. Kevin Mensah is a tantalizingly low $4,200 considering he ran for 1,013 yards and nine touchdowns in 2019. Fresno State was one of the most porous defenses in the nation last year, allowing 212 yards per game on the ground, so the opportunity is there for Mensah who carried the ball at least 19 times in 7 of his 12 games in 2019. The issue is what if Fresno’s potent offense gets out to a quick lead and UConn abandons the run, but at $4,200 it’s well worth the per-touch investment and he should be heavily owned.

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Eric Froton Draft Kings Optimized Lineup:

QB - Jake Haener | Fresno State vs. UConn | $9,700 - 27.7 points - 2.86 Points Per Thousand

RB - Ronnie Rivers | Fresno State vs. UConn | $7,800 - 27.5 points - 3.53 PPT

RB - Brittain Brown | UCLA vs. Hawaii | $5,600 - 22.7 points - 4.05 PPT

WR - Samori Toure | Nebraska @ Illinois | $4,900 - 2.8 points - 2.8 PPT

WR - Josh Kelly | Fresno State vs. UConn | $4,400 - 4.7 points - 1.07 PPT

WR - Greg Dulcich | UCLA vs. Hawaii | $6,000 - 12.5 points - 2.08 PPT

Flex - Sevion Morrison | Nebraska @ Illinois | $3,000 - 7.0 points - 2.33 PPT

S-Flex - Dorian Thompson-Robinson | UCLA vs. Hawaii | $8,500 - 27.5 points - 3.24 PPT

Total Salary - $49,900

I spit out three optimized lineups and went with what I feel gives me firepower up top while targeting players at the bottom by taking shots on training camp risers. With Sevion Morrison reputed to be leading the three-headed running back hodgepodge Nebraska is trotting out, his $3,000 price tag is a reasonable low-cost dart throw who should see double digit touches. Tossed out Wheatfall’s $5,500 price tag and subbed in Josh Kelly who is confirmed to be starting, while Wheatfall could share reps with Washington transfer Ty Jones ($3,900), who is an excellent alternative to Kelly if you’re looking to shave $500. I know the lineup seems Fresno-centric, but in all sincerity UConn put together a two year run of defensive futility that can only be measured on UMass-ian levels. The last time the Huskies suited up, they returned nine starters and gave up 40.5 points per game. In 2018, Connecticut (the school, not the state) regurgitated 50.4 points a game upon their fanbase and made Quarterback David Pindell into a fantasy demi-god because he was allowed to simply be the entire offense while throwing against scout team players. He rushed 212 times for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns rushing, many of the spectacular variety. Point is - UConn isn’t going to stop anyone, all year long. And certainly not Saturday afternoon against Fresno State. I also used Samori Toure as a base at $4,900, as he has locked in first team work while boasting an absurd 87 receptions, 1,495 yards, 17.2 YPC and a touchdown for the Montana Grizzlies en route to FCS All-American recognition. I don’t usually go tight end hunting with my lineups, but Greg Dulcich is arguably the top CFF tight end in the nation, behind just Cole Turner of Nevada in the industry composite ranks. Putting him with DTR ensures I get a healthy slice of UCLA’s offense against a Hawaii team that are currently 17 ½ point underdogs according to PointsBet.com.