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It’s easy to become obsessed with fantasy football on the professional level. The NFL is a titan in the sports industry. People love to make money off of anything. And the growth of data and analytics, particularly at the NFL level, has propelled the industry in such a way that people like myself who despised anything that sounded even remotely like math are now scrambling to re-learn those skills they were “never going to use in the real world.”
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I tell everybody I know that if fantasy football was what it is today while I was growing up, my high school and collegiate careers would have gone much differently. And by that, I mean I highly doubt I would have found myself in an Algebra 101 class my freshman year of college had I spent more time crunching numbers in the name of fantasy football during my high school days.
Nevertheless, all of these numbers and metrics make fantasy football all the more fun to play and analyze. And at times, they feel impossibly hard to come by at the collegiate level relative to their NFL counterpart.
The goal for the 2021 college fantasy football season is to change that. Perhaps a normalization of the same metrics we know and love at the NFL level is all it will take to propel interest in the college fantasy game in 2021 and beyond.
Pulling some on-field stats from the fine folks at PFF.com and Sports-Reference.com, I factored in DraftKings fantasy scoring settings in hopes of giving us a deeper look at their Week 3 college football DFS main slate.
With 12 games on the slate this weekend, let’s have a look at some current leaders in wide receiver efficiency metrics and see who among them could make for nice bargains in our DFS lineups.
*NOTE* All fantasy data and metrics are based on DraftKings scoring settings.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
Game: Ohio State (-24.5) vs. Tulsa
DraftKings Salary: $5,500
The Buckeyes are loaded with talent at the wide receiver position, as evidenced by their production through their first two games of the season.
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | YPR | Touchdowns |
| 23 | 16 | 243 | 15.2 | 2 | |
| 25 | 13 | 197 | 15.2 | 2 | |
| 13 | 9 | 157 | 17.4 | 2 |
While Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson both got off to strong starts in Week 1 against Minnesota, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was on the outside looking in.
That changed in Week 2 against Oregon, when Smith-Njigba turned 11 targets into seven receptions for 145 yards and two touchdowns. He led the team in both yards and touchdowns last week, and has been the most efficient receiver on the team in fantasy points per target (3.1) and fantasy points per reception (4.4).
For this weekend’s matchup against Tulsa, Smith-Njigba is the cheapest of OSU’s top three receivers, coming in at $5,500. Olave ($8,100) and Wilson ($6,400) are averaging 29.2 and 23.9 fantasy points per game, respectively, but Smith-Njigba has shown an ability break games open despite being the receiver with less opportunity.
Ohio State enters this game as heavy favorites (-24.5) and are coming off a tough home loss to Oregon last week. Through two games, OSU ranks 15th in pass attempts per game (38.0), and fourth in passing yards per game (389.0).
With the game’s current O/U at 61, Ohio State has an implied team total of 42.75 points and should grab a lead early in this one.
Rather than spending up to land Olave or Wilson in what could be non-competitive game, consider taking a shot on the more efficient, cheaper option in Smith-Njigba. His efficient start to the season makes him an interesting play against a bad defense, where one big play could make him worth the acquisition.
It is worth noting that Smith-Njigba’s (and Chris Olave‘s) player projections for the week are underwhelming in the Edge Finder tool, likely due to the anticipation of OSU sitting its starters in a blowout win. However, the tool is also intriguingly high on starter Garrett Wilson. The full player prop projections for OSU receivers are provided below to better aide in any decisions for this week.
Jayden Reed, Michigan State
Game: Miami (-6.5) vs. Michigan State
DraftKings Salary: $6,900
Michigan State (2-0) looks like a much improved team through its first two games of the season after winning games over Northwestern and Youngstown to start the season in dominant fashion. The Spartans entered Week 1 as three point road underdogs against Northwestern, but walked away with a 38-21 victory over a team that had finished 7-2 in 2020.
The Spartans have been buoyed by their rushing attack early on. Running back Kenneth Walker III leads the team with a rushing line of 30/321/5, and is tops in the nation in yards per attempt at 10.7 (min. 20 attempts).
While their rushing attack has been, and likely will continue to be effective, redshirt junior wide receiver has also stood out in a big way.
Through the first two games of the season, Reed is the only receiver on Michigan State’s roster with 100+ receiving yards, despite being second on the team in targets (12). His receiving line of 9/245/2 was boosted by his performance against Youngstown State (4/181/2), but he could be in for another big day this weekend against Miami.
Of the receivers on this weekend’s slate, Reed ranks third in both points per target (4.1) and points per reception (5.5). The Spartans may need to lean more on their passing game in this weekend’s matchup, as they head into Miami as 6.5 point underdogs, but going away from their strength on the ground may not be as bad as it sounds.
After entering 2021 with high expectations, Miami was humbled by Alabama in Week 1, and barely escaped with a 25-23 home win in Week 2 against Appalachian State in a game in which they were favored by 5.5 points.
Miami has struggled in pass coverage this season. Opponents are averaging 276.5 passing yards per game against the Hurricane, while Pro Football Focus has them graded as the ninth worst passing defense in the nation with a coverage grade of 46.5.
On the flip side, Pro Football Focus has Michigan State graded as the seventh best offense in the nation at 88.7, with the 39th best passing attack at 77.4.
This weekend, Reed is priced as the eighth most expensive receiver on the slate but is fourth in fantasy points per game (24.9). Looking at the Edge Finder player props tool, Reed is projected for 6.3 receptions for 88.4 yards and 0.7 touchdowns which would be good for 19.3 points on DraftKings.
Samori Toure, Nebraska
Game: Oklahoma (-22) vs. Nebraska
DraftKings Salary: $5,600
The Cornhuskers are one of only a few teams to have played in three games this season, but Samori Toure is one of only three receivers on his team to have appeared in all three of those games. Fellow starter Oliver Martin has missed the last two games (undisclosed) but has a chance to return this week against Oklahoma.
Neverthless, Toure has dominated the target share for Nebraska thus far. His 20 targets are good for a 26% target share, as he’s hauled in 13 passes for 306 yards and two touchdowns. Toure also has two 100-yard receiving games on the season, which gives him added value in a DraftKings format that awards an additional three points to any player who goes for 100+ rushing/receiving yards in a game.
Oklahoma is allowing just 209.5 passing yards on the season, but you may recall a Week 1 scare against Tulane where they allowed 296 passing yards and three touchdowns to quarterback Michael Pratt in a game that the Sooners won 40-35 despite being favored by 31 points.
The Sooners are favored by 22 points in this game, which could lead to a pass heavy game script for the Cornhuskers.
The current O/U for this game sits at 61.5, which could have a good chance of going over, as both teams are in the top-24 in offensive plays per game.
Toure is currently averaging 3.4 fantasy points per target, and 5.0 fantasy points per reception, both good for sixth best among receivers on this slate. His player prop projection puts him at 17.2 fantasy points on DraftKings this weekend.
David Bell, Purdue
Game: Notre Dame (-7.5) vs. Purdue
DraftKings Salary: $7,700
If you’ve stuck with the article for this long, then you’re about to learn that the best was saved for last.
Saturday’s Notre Dame vs. Purdue game, much like Nebraska vs. Oklahoma, features two teams that run a high volume of plays per game.
Purdue currently ranks 18th in the nation at 76.0 plays per game, while Notre Dame is closely behind at 72.5 plays per game. Notre Dame is favored by 7.5 in this one, and the O/U currently sits at 58.
Perhaps the most exciting thing about this game, which features two 2-0 teams, is Purdue wide receiver David Bell.
Bell is priced at $7,700 on this week’s slate, which is the fourth highest price of any receiver, but he makes this article because his pricing feels three spots too low.
In all actuality, of the wide receivers on this slate, Bell should probably be the most expensive, but that honor belongs to Coastal Carolina’s Jaivon Heiligh ($8,300).
Of the wide receivers on this slate, Bell ranks first in fantasy points (66.1), first in fantasy points per game (33.1), fifth in points per target (3.7) and fifth in points per reception (5.1).
Per Pro Football Focus, Bell is also first amongst receivers with eight missed tackles forced and seventh in yards after catch (153). His 89.8 grade on PFF also ranks eighth best for receivers this season.
Bell has gone for over 100 yards in both contests this season, and went for an absurd 5/113/3 against UConn last week.
It’s no surprise that Bell’s player prop projection for the weekend is every bit reflective of his elite upside. His props suggest that he could be in line for 28.2 DraftKings points this weekend.
Bell is the fourth most expensive receiver on the slate, but is a tremendous bargain as the best, most efficient receiver on the slate as well.
