Last year, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Tyrese Haliburton made the leap into the first round.
In 2021-22, it was Dejounte Murray.
In 2020-21, it was Nikola Vucevic and Myles Turner.
Who will it be this season? Which player will take a huge step forward and reward fantasy managers with a top-12 season? Finding a diamond in the rough is the goal of each and every fantasy draft, and fortunately, we have seven guys who can be the best of the best without costing you a first-round pick.
As a rule of thumb, we’re excluding guys like Donovan Mitchell, Lauri Markkanen, Domantas Sabonis, Brook Lopez and Nicolas Claxton. All of them finished as top-24 options in 2022-23, and we’re looking for players whose best fantasy finishes have been outside that range and who have first-round ceilings in 2023-24.
Here are the picks, starting with a pair of Raptors ready to rise after the departure of their PG:
OG Anunoby
Last three fantasy finishes: 28 (‘22-23), 52 (‘21-22), 35 (‘20-21)
Three-season averages: 16.6 points, 5.3 boards, 2.3 assists, 1.6 steals 0.6 blocks, 1.8 TOs, 2.3 triples, 46.5 FG%, 79.7 FT%
Who he is: Anunoby has spent all six seasons of his career with Toronto, operating as a key role player during the team’s 2018-19 run to the Finals and establishing himself as one of the NBA’s best two-way players.
How he can jump into the top-12: Anunoby had a strong 2022-23 season and provided career-best marks in FT% (83.8) and steals (1.9). His averaged just 2.0 assists and 2.1 triples - both three-year lows - but with Fred VanVleet gone, both of those numbers could realistically increase. VanVleet averaged 19.3 points, 7.2 dimes, 16.1 FGA and 23.2 usage last season, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Anunoby to boost his value in points, three-pointers and assists. As a solid shooter and last season’s steals leader, he’s got the fantasy skillset to be a top-12 option if he can put it all together at the same time.
OG Anunoby's stats vs. Los Angeles:
— NBA Canada (@NBACanada) March 11, 2023
31 PTS | 86% FG | 4 3PT | 5 STL | 2 REB @Raptors | #WeTheNorth pic.twitter.com/EOLUVhLSTE
Scottie Barnes
Last two fantasy finishes: 85 (‘22-23), 66 (‘21-22)
Two-season averages: 15.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.8 blocks, 0.8 triples, 45.6 FG%, 77.2 FT%
Who he is: Barnes won a closely-contested Rookie of the Year race in 2021-22, making a name for himself as a high-level scorer, rebounder and playmaker with upside as a defender. He didn’t experience a sophomore slump, but he didn’t take a big step forward, either. He disappointed plenty of fantasy managers who spent a valuable pick on him, meaning he’ll likely come at a discount in 2023-24 drafts.
How he can jump into the top-12: While Barnes didn’t have a strong encore to his ROY season, he showed improvement as a playmaker, handing out a career-high 4.8 assists per game. He compiled 13 double-doubles and even recorded a triple-double with an 11/11/10 stat line against the Mavs on November 4. “Point Scottie” ran the offense at times throughout the season, and the departure of FVV could mean more of that in 2023-24. Barnes has room to grow as a scorer and three-point shooter, and improvements in shooting percentages could boost his value in points and triples. A higher-usage role and an increase in efficiency are on the table for Barnes, as he figures to play a big role for a Toronto team with one of the worst benches in the NBA. Beam me up!
Scottie Barnes (age 21 years, 95 days) becomes the youngest player in Raptors history to record a triple-double. pic.twitter.com/qxszjZEbup
— NBA.com/Stats (@nbastats) November 5, 2022
Mikal Bridges
Last three fantasy finishes: 32 (‘22-23), 54 (‘21-22), 42 (‘20-21)
Three-season averages: 15.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.7 blocks, 1.0 TOs, 1.8 triples, 50.4 FG%, 86.3 FT%
Who he is: Like Anunoby, Bridges has made a name for himself as an elite, two-way option. After spending the first four seasons of his career in Phoenix, he was traded to Brooklyn midway through Year 5 as part of the Kevin Durant deal. Bridges is an iron man, who has never missed a game in his NBA career and finished with 83 under his belt after being traded.
How he can jump into the top-12: Bridges broke out last season, posting career-high marks in a number of categories with 20.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.0 three-pointers. Increased usage and a nearly 50% spike in FGAs (10.5 in 2021-22, 15.3 in 2022-23) led to a career-high 1.5 TOs and the second-lowest FG% of his career (46.8). His production in those categories took a turn in the wrong direction, but 1.5 TOs and 46.8% shooting are not inherently bad numbers for a guy operating as his team’s go-to option on offense.
After arriving in Brooklyn, Bridges averaged 26.1 points, 4.5 boards, 1.0 steals, 2.7 assists and 2.0 triples in 27 games, while shooting 47.5% from the field and 89.4% from the charity stripe. We should see high usage and plenty of scoring in his first full campaign with Brooklyn, but Bridges can boost his fantasy stock and move into the top-12 with manageable improvements in shooting percentages and assists. He’s pushed for a 50/40/90 shooting season before, and his assist numbers had the most substantial growth of his career in 2022-23.
Mikal Bridges scored 44 points and I’m running out of things to say about him because he’s been so consistently good for BKN.
— V̷a̷t̷o̷r̷ (@Vator_H_Town) March 27, 2023
So smooth getting to his spots and that middy is cash money. pic.twitter.com/OUzhRZ6gb9
Desmond Bane
Last three fantasy finishes: 36 (‘22-23), 36 (‘21-22), 211 (‘20-21)
Three-season averages: 16.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.5 TOs, 2.5 triples, 47.1 FG%, 88.7 FT%
Who he is: One of the best three-point shooters in the NBA, Bane is also a quality defender and playmaker. After signing a monster, five-year, $207 million extension at the end of June, Bane has been cemented as a franchise cornerstone in Memphis’ future plans.
How he can jump into the top-12: Bane’s averages in most categories have grown in each of the last two seasons, resulting in the best statistical season of his career in 2022-23. Last season, he posted 21.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.9 triples while shooting 47.9% from the field and 88.3% from the charity stripe. He’s shot no worse than 40.8% from beyond the arc in any of his three NBA seasons, and it wouldn’t be surprising for him to hit north of three triples per game in 2023-24. Bane’s usage has also gone from 16.2 in his rookie campaign to 23.2 in 2021-22 and finally to 26.1 in 2022-23. Last season’s usage broke down to 25.6 with Ja Morant 28.5 without Morant.
Morant will miss the first 25 games of the season while serving a suspension, which means Bane should be in line for substantial usage and an increase in scoring opportunities. The Grizzlies added Marcus Smart in the offseason, but Bane finished as a top-36 option alongside a much more talented high-usage PG in each of the last two seasons. Smart will likely be utilized more as an elite defender than a true facilitator, which opens the door for Bane to take another step forward in the assists department. Memphis also lost Tyus Jones, so this isn’t a deep roster at guard. High-level shooting, scoring and facilitating could push Bane into the first round of fantasy hoops even after Morant returns.
Desmond Bane scored 32 second-half points in the win vs the Nets 🔥
— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) October 25, 2022
38 Points (Career-High)
14/21 Shooting
8/11 Threes
7 Assists
1 Turnoverpic.twitter.com/e82KwE1srL
Anthony Edwards
Last three fantasy finishes: 40 (‘22-23), 42 (‘21-22), 119 (‘20-21)
Three-season averages: 21.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.6 blocks, 2.7 TOs, 2.7 triples, 43.8 FG%, 76.9 FT%
Who he is: One of the most talented young scorers in the game, Ant Man has shown that he’s a walking bucket who can also contribute on the defensive end. He’ll be just 22 when the season starts, and we haven’t seen his best basketball yet.
How he can jump into the top-12: Edwards isn’t an efficient shooter, and his percentages have dragged down his fantasy value throughout his career. His FG% has improved in each of the last two seasons, and he can be better from the charity stripe. Small improvements from 2022-23 could really boost his fantasy value, even though we know he won’t sniff 50% from the field or 85% from the foul line. Where he can make a major leap is as a scorer. Edwards averaged a career-best 24.4 points per game last season, but that number is sure to rise in Year 4. He can hit more three-pointers, his rebounds and assists can tick up, and his defensive numbers have room for improvement as well. Edwards averaged an eye-popping line of 31.6 points, 5.2 assists, 5.0 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 2.0 blocks against Denver in last season’s playoffs, and numbers like that over the course of an entire season would put him in the first-round conversation. He’s got all the tools to be a top-12 fantasy option in 2023-24.
Anthony Edwards has 129 points in the series vs the Nuggets. This is the 3rd-most all-time by a player 21 or younger in their team's first four games of a postseason.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 24, 2023
🏀2006 LeBron James, 137 pts
🏀2001 Tracy McGrady, 135 pts
🏀2023 Anthony Edwards, 129 pts pic.twitter.com/uA6i5MqW35
Walker Kessler
Last season fantasy finish: 57 (‘22-23) as a rookie
Last season averages: 9.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.4 steals, 2.3 blocks, 0.8 TOs, 72.0 FG%, 51.6 FT%
Who he is: “Blocker Kessler,” “The Ranger,” “Salt Lake Swatter” - whatever you want to call him, there’s no mistaking Kessler’s enormous fantasy potential in 2023-24. He finished as the highest-ranked fantasy rookie on a per-game basis last season thanks to his outstanding blocking ability, high FG%, low TOs and strong rebounds.
How he can jump into the top-12: Kessler’s work as a shot-blocker wasn’t just good. It was historic. Since 1988, he’s one of just 12 players to average at least 2.0 blocks per game as a rookie. Since 2000? He’s one of only three players to hit that per-game average, and his total blocks in 2022-23 were the most by a rookie in that span. Kessler averaged just 23.0 minutes per game in his inaugural campaign, but his role grew steadily as the season went on. Over the final two months of the season, his minutes soared to 28.6, and he ranked 21st in per-game value behind 11.9 points, 10.6 rebounds and 3.2 swats.
In most categories, the league-leader in that particular stat isn’t head-and-shoulders above the competition. A scoring title is often decided by fractions of a point, and the same is usually true of rebounds and assists. Steals and particularly blocks are different. In 2020-21, Myles Turner’s 3.5 blocks per game were 1.1 more than the runner-up, Rudy Gobert. That cavernous gap gave Turner such insane value in the blocks category that it propelled him into the first round that season.
Clutch blocks... that's Walker Kessler's thing.
— NBA (@NBA) March 21, 2023
The @utahjazz rookie center helps seal a second-consecutive game on the defensive end! 💯 pic.twitter.com/PS1f5ToYVU
In 2020-21, Turner averaged 12.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 3.4 blocks and 1.5 triples while shooting 47.7% from the field and 78.2% from the free-throw line. Kessler doesn’t shoot threes, but his elite production in rebounds and FG% are more than enough to compensate. It’s not a bold take to guess that Kessler leads the league in blocks this season, and if he does so by a significant margin, he can elevate into the top-12. We can certainly count on him averaging better than 23.0 minutes per game, which should lead to improved production in points and rebounds as well.
Most blocks since the All-Star break:
— StatMuse (@statmuse) March 28, 2023
51 — Walker Kessler
45 — Brook Lopez
43 — Jaren Jackson Jr
The rook is averaging 3.6 BPG in that span. pic.twitter.com/aAHJN24Diw
Jalen Brunson
Last three fantasy finishes: 45 (‘22-23), 98 (‘21-22), 183 (‘20-21)
Three-season averages: 17.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.6 TOs, 1.5 triples, 50.0 FG%, 83.2 FT%
Who he is: After four seasons in Dallas, including a (pre)breakout 2021-22 campaign, Brunson took his talents to New York last offseason. He enjoyed the best season of his career while leading the Knicks to an upset first-round playoff victory over the Cavs.
How he can jump into the top-12: Brunson’s role changed from role-player alongside Luka Doncic to leader and franchise cornerstone of a team. How did he handle the new responsibilities? He promptly increased his career-high in scoring from 16.3 to 24.0 and his career-high in assists from 4.8 to 6.2. Most impressively, his usage spiked from 21.9 to 27.2 from 2021-22 to 2022-23, yet his turnovers only increased from 1.6 to 2.1. His FG% fell from 50.2 to 49.1 despite a massive jump in FGAs from 12.8 to 17.6. Brunson maintained a high level of efficiency and relatively low turnovers while going off in the scoring and facilitating departments.
He absolutely detonated in the playoffs, averaging 27.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.5 steals and 2.4 triples while shooting 47.4% from the field and 91.2% from the charity stripe. He can still improve as a scorer and hand out more assists in his second season with New York. He shot a career-best 41.6% from beyond the arc last season, and after finding success from three-point range in the playoffs, there’s optimism he’ll attempt more three-pointers in 2023-24. Even after logging 35.0 minutes per night a season ago, it wouldn’t be shocking if head coach Tom Thibodeau gave Brunson even more playing time moving forward. Brunson averaged more than 40 minutes per game in the postseason.
The only Knicks player to show up.
— Teg🚨 (@IQfor3) May 13, 2023
Jalen Brunson following a 38-point elimination game with a 41-point elimination game. Thank you pic.twitter.com/gCRtF4OBV4
