The pre-draft process ahead of the 2023 NBA Draft was unlike any that we’ve seen in quite some time. Victor Wembanyama, long touted as one of the top basketball prospects regardless of draft class, was finally eligible to hear his name called. And with that came the constant hype machine, which he lived up to in leading Metropolitans 92 to the championship series of France’s top professional division.
The Spurs won the right to select Wembanyama with the first overall pick, and the hope in San Antonio is that he can be as successful as the last two players the franchise drafted in that spot: David Robinson and Tim Duncan. The question now: what should we expect from Wemby in his first NBA season regarding both “real” basketball and that of the fantasy variety? Rotoworld staffers Raphielle Johnson, Noah Rubin, and Zak Hanshew offer their thoughts on Wembanyama ahead of his preseason debut.
Raphielle Johnson: My fantasy expectations for Wembanyama are that he finishes his rookie season as a top-50 player with regard to per-game value. Something that caught the eye of many was San Antonio labeling him as a forward when they announced the signing of his contract. While Wemby will have center eligibility in most (if not all) fantasy leagues, the distinction is an important one. It makes it clear that the Spurs don’t want him to take the hits that centers can take at the NBA level, which should give him ample opportunities to serve as a “rover” of sorts defensively. That will help him in the blocks category and possibly steals as well.
Offensively, sharing the court with a true center (Zach Collins) should free up Wembanyama to play on the perimeter as well as the post. He did have some issues with physicality in his first Summer League outing, and there will be moments when that happens now that he’ll be up against proven NBA players, but he was able to adjust in his second game. I expect him to do so during the regular season as well. It also helps to be coached by Gregg Popovich, who has been down this road before (Duncan) and is definitely capable of putting Wembanyama in spots where he can be at his best.
The one lingering question for me is, will Wembanyama win Rookie of the Year honors? He’s the betting favorite to win the award, but the eligibility of one Chet Holmgren could bring team success into the equation. While the Spurs did get better with the arrival of Wembanyama, the same can be said of an emerging Thunder squad now that Holmgren is healthy. Look for Wembanyama to live up to the hype, even if it doesn’t result in him winning Rookie of the Year.
Get an assist with your draft with the Rotoworld Basketball Draft Guide. Use promo code PRESEASON25 at checkout and score a 20% discount, a $10 eGift card to Fanatics and free Season Tools with your draft guide.
Noah Rubin: I’m a bit more cautious when it comes to Wemby in fantasy this season. Sure, there have been rookies who have been elite in fantasy basketball, and it’s certainly not outside of his range of outcomes. However, there are far more scenarios where he doesn’t live up to the hype as a rookie than scenarios where he does. That’s not to say that I don’t believe he’ll win Rookie of the Year or be a good player in fantasy basketball. His current Yahoo ADP is around pick 30, and he’s going before players like Dejounte Murray, Paul George, and Bam Adebayo. Those are players that I feel much better about drafting than Wemby this season.
I have no doubt in my mind that Wemby will be one of the best shot-blockers in the league. He’ll also be one of the most fun players in the league (I mean, c’mon. 7’4” and shooting step-backs?) However, opposing teams will be far more keyed in on him than anyone else on the team. He shot 47% last season in France, and I expect his percentage to be lower than that this season. He’ll also be playing power forward with Zach Collins at center. Wemby averaged 10.4 rebounds per game in France last year, but I’m expecting that to be closer to eight per game this season, despite how tall he is. Eventually, these won’t be a concern, which is why he’s ranked third in my dynasty rankings. He might even improve on the field goal percentage by the end of his first year.
My other concern is his team. The Spurs were the perfect landing spot for him, but now he’s playing in the West. Let’s face it: adding Wemby doesn’t make San Antonio a playoff team immediately. Houston, Portland, Utah, and San Antonio are likely on the outside looking in, but the Rockets added a lot of talent this summer, and Portland is more talented than people may think. The Spurs are going to play it smart with Wemby. They want him to be dominant for 15-20 years, not 8-10. If they have to limit him to 26-28 minutes per game and only 55 games as a rookie, then they’ll do it with no hesitation.
Wemby isn’t a player I won’t draft, but I’m trying to be cautious. He’s an incredible talent, but that doesn’t mean he’ll dominate from day one. I’ll let other managers overdraft him this year unless he’s available for me in Round 4. He’s going to be really good for a rookie, but that doesn’t mean that he’ll be better than other stars who are going in the same range as him. You probably won’t get your return on investment with Wemby this season because of how early he’s going, which is why I won’t have him in many redraft leagues.
Zak Hanshew: LeBron James, Zion Williamson… Victor Wembanyama. Expectations for a rookie are rarely as high as they are for Wemby this season, but can he live up to the hype? At 7’4, he’s one of the Association’s tallest players, but he boasts an elite skillset that few big men possess. Wemby handles the ball like a guard, and he passes like one, too. He can also shoot an outside shot, rebound effectively, and block shots at a high level.
The skills that earned him the moniker “alien” were on full display in Saturday’s open “Black and Silver Scrimmage” in San Antonio. Greeted by a standing ovation of over 13,000 fans, Wemby made numerous highlight plays, including catching an alley-oop from Devonte’ Graham (and narrowly missing another from Tre Jones), hitting a step-back three-pointer and making a fantastic wrap-around pass to a wide-open Graham for an easy three-pointer.
Wemby goes behind the back and then slings a filthy skip pass #PorVida👽 pic.twitter.com/UVmvYXjJAo
— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) October 7, 2023
Most notably, Wemby (who scored nine points in the contest) played all his minutes with a center on the court. Listed as a forward on the team’s depth chart and sporting forward eligibility in fantasy, Wemby should get plenty of opportunities to shine as an outside scorer and facilitator, while limiting his risk of getting worked in the paint by bigger centers such as Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic.
Speaking after the scrimmage, Zach Collins noted that he and Wemby can both operate as true bigs, but both have the ability to hit outside shots. Said Collins, “It’s a pick-your-poison type thing. So, hopefully, we can get that chemistry going. I think we have the skill sets, now it’s just about knowing where the other guy’s going to be at all times.” Collins alluded to both players taking turns at C and PF, which should mean plenty of opportunities for Wemby to rack up boards, blocks, points, dimes, and even triples.
San Antonio Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama going to work 👀 pic.twitter.com/Wqg2hMDTXo
— No Ceilings (@NoCeilingsNBA) October 7, 2023
Rookie production is tough to predict, especially in fantasy hoops, but Wemby is “the alien” for a reason. I’m expecting a top-40 per-game fantasy season from the French phenom, but there are obvious concerns that he’ll get rested toward the end of the season if the Spurs are out of the playoff race, and injury concerns about his slender frame holding up against bigger opponents are real. The hype is tremendous, so managers hoping to roster Wemby in redraft leagues will have to pony up and take him in the second round. That’s a bit too rich for my blood, but if he’s available in the third round, my interest will be piqued.
