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Auction Prices w/ Excel Sheet

Auction drafts can be terrific. The tyranny of snake-draft positions can’t prevent you from acquiring your favorite players. You watch as opposing owners squander their salary cap on players you despise, and fill your final roster spot with a $6 roll of the dice. When you look back at the roster you’ve assembled, you find…a top-heavy team with no clear identity and a plethora of injury risks? How did this happen?

Russell Westbrook cost $84 and getting him felt great. With just $116 left for 12 more roster spots, however, you watched helplessly as player after player went far below market value in the mid-tier range. D’Angelo Russell for $16? You should have had him. Myles Turner for $31? Highway robbery. And that final player you spent $6 to acquire? That was Greg Monroe -- you took him because you desperately needed another center, and you only spent $6 because you miscalculated and had too much cash at the end of the draft.

Auction drafts are terrific...when they go well. When they go poorly, you destroy your chances of winning a league before it even begins. The good news is that simple planning can tilt the odds in your favor -- the first step is to have a working knowledge of auction-style drafts, and to come in with a clear strategy. For this, refer to Jared Johnson’s aptly-titled article, Auction Draft Strategy Guide.

The next step is to understand how much a player should be worth, roughly, given your league’s size and settings. With that goal in mind, I’ve created ‘theoretical auction values’ for the top-175 players in the 2017-18 season, as determined by my projected stats and fantasy values.

The auction prices below are based on 8-cat values, weighted by projected games played. To change individual players’ projected fantasy values, the league size, or the salary cap, just download the Excel file this is based upon! Before we get to individual prices, however, let’s step back and look at the big picture.

2cvAYTl.png

This chart is self-explanatory, showing the average cost of a pick in each round (the assumption is that there are 12 picks per round, but this too can be manipulated in the Excel file above). There’s a premium for elite players, clearly, whereas most auction owners can fill out their bench with a handful of guys in the $1-$5 range.

My projected values suggest that owners tend to overpay for elite options -- about $4.25 per positive z-score (for simplicity’s sake) in the first round, a figure that falls steadily as the draft progresses. This is somewhat misleading, however, since the limited number of elite players creates a classic free-market conundrum, wherein demand outstrips supply. Elite players often increase their appeal by contributing to categories which are harder to find late in drafts -- high-volume points and percentages, blocks and assists.

Let’s move on to the next chart.

8Q2MNiF.png

There’s a lot of data in this chart. A few takeaways:

1) Every position’s price plummets after the first few rounds, and small forward is no exception. Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard lead the charge, after which there’s a steep drop-off to Paul George, another drop to Gordon Hayward, and then a relative plateau with Khris Middleton, Otto Porter, Andrew Wiggins and Nicolas Batum (pre-injury).

2) Shooting guards go from James Harden ($75) to Jimmy Butler ($41), after which there’s a pool of guys in the $30 range -- C.J. McCollum, Klay Thompson, DeMar DeRozan and Bradley Beal.

3) Power forwards have the fewest players who cost at least $30 -- Anthony Davis, Draymond Green and Kristaps Porzingis. The PF position drops off quickly this year, in terms of fantasy talent -- if you don’t land a top-tier power forward, you’ll probably end up relying on someone like Thaddeus Young, James Johnson, Markieff Morris or Zach Randolph.

4) Take another look at the elevated cost of point guards throughout fantasy drafts. You may be best served by acquiring an elite PG (or two) in the early goings, to avoid bidding wars as the draft progress. On the other hand, you could adopt a punt-assists strategy and build toward everything else, before filling out your PG spot with affordable, solid options like Pat Beverley, George Hill and Marcus Smart.

5) Look at the table below the chart, which shows the cost for each position. The 15th center being drafted in Yahoo leagues ($200 budget) is still commanding $10, whereas the 15th shooting guard and small forward both cost $3. Aside from point guards, centers have the longest ‘tail’ for auction prices -- we’re short on supply, but demand remains high throughout drafts.

Without further ado, here are my ‘theoretical’ auction prices, based on my own projected stats and fantasy values. As a final reminder, you can download all this stuff right here! I’ve made the Excel sheet as intuitive as possible, with instructions to change league size, salary cap totals, and more. If you have specific questions, send me a message on Twitter or an email.

8-cat Values

(WEIGHTED BY PROJECTED GAMES PLAYED)

Theoretical Auction Price$

(assuming $200 per team)

% of Individual Team Budget
James Harden16.34$70.0235.01%
Giannis Antetokounmpo14.92$63.9331.96%
Russell Westbrook14.78$63.3131.66%
Karl-Anthony Towns14.19$60.8130.41%
Stephen Curry14.12$60.5130.25%
Kevin Durant13.17$56.4528.23%
LeBron James13.06$55.9727.98%
Anthony Davis12.40$53.1126.56%
John Wall12.14$52.0326.02%
Damian Lillard11.56$49.5224.76%
Nikola Jokic11.53$49.4124.71%
Kyrie Irving11.42$48.9324.46%
DeMarcus Cousins11.33$43.4221.71%
Rudy Gobert11.15$42.7121.35%
Chris Paul10.99$42.1021.05%
Paul George10.87$41.6620.83%
Kawhi Leonard10.84$41.5420.77%
Jimmy Butler10.81$41.4220.71%
Kyle Lowry10.32$39.5619.78%
Myles Turner9.84$37.7018.85%
Hassan Whiteside9.30$35.6317.82%
Draymond Green9.27$35.5017.75%
Kristaps Porzingis9.14$35.0317.51%
C.J. McCollum9.05$34.6817.34%
Kevin Love8.90$31.8215.91%
Kemba Walker8.80$31.4915.74%
Brook Lopez8.71$31.1615.58%
Bradley Beal8.58$30.6815.34%
Mike Conley8.29$29.6414.82%
Eric Bledsoe7.94$28.3914.20%
Marc Gasol7.56$27.0413.52%
Blake Griffin7.52$26.8813.44%
DeMar DeRozan7.50$26.8413.42%
Klay Thompson7.32$26.1713.08%
Victor Oladipo7.30$26.1213.06%
D’Angelo Russell7.22$22.6611.33%
Otto Porter7.20$22.6111.31%
Dennis Schroder7.04$22.1111.05%
Gordon Hayward7.03$22.0711.04%
Jeff Teague7.03$22.0711.03%
Ricky Rubio6.98$21.9010.95%
Paul Millsap6.86$21.5210.76%
Devin Booker6.78$21.2810.64%
Joel Embiid6.73$21.1210.56%
Khris Middleton6.59$20.6810.34%
Nicolas Batum6.58$20.6410.32%
Al Horford6.54$20.5210.26%
Jusuf Nurkic6.53$16.988.49%
Dennis Smith Jr.6.48$23.1811.59%
Aaron Gordon6.32$16.458.22%
Goran Dragic6.23$16.208.10%
Jrue Holiday6.18$16.078.03%
Nikola Vucevic6.02$15.667.83%
Serge Ibaka6.00$15.617.80%
Gary Harris5.91$15.377.69%
Marquese Chriss5.64$14.677.33%
Elfrid Payton5.55$14.427.21%
Jamal Murray5.51$14.337.17%
Andrew Wiggins5.44$14.157.07%
James Johnson5.43$14.117.06%
Ben Simmons5.34$12.066.03%
Marcus Smart5.21$11.795.89%
Jae Crowder5.21$11.775.88%
Trevor Ariza5.19$11.745.87%
Carmelo Anthony5.14$11.625.81%
Lonzo Ball5.11$11.555.78%
Avery Bradley5.04$11.395.70%
George Hill5.02$11.355.68%
LaMarcus Aldridge4.99$11.295.64%
Taurean Prince4.96$11.225.61%
Andre Drummond4.90$11.075.54%
Isaiah Thomas4.85$10.965.48%
T.J. Warren4.83$8.594.30%
Harrison Barnes4.79$8.524.26%
Buddy Hield4.79$8.514.26%
Danilo Gallinari4.75$8.444.22%
Jeremy Lin4.72$8.394.20%
Tobias Harris4.71$8.384.19%
Robert Covington4.71$8.384.19%
Tim Hardaway Jr.4.58$8.144.07%
Nerlens Noel4.54$8.074.03%
DeAndre Jordan4.53$8.044.02%
Patrick Beverley4.45$7.913.96%
Julius Randle4.44$7.893.95%
Willie Cauley Stein4.44$6.723.36%
Clint Capela4.38$6.643.32%
Rodney Hood4.35$6.583.29%
Malcolm Brogdon4.12$6.253.12%
Gorgui Dieng4.04$6.123.06%
Lou Williams3.98$6.023.01%
Steven Adams3.96$6.003.00%
John Collins3.95$5.992.99%
Rajon Rondo3.84$5.812.91%
Jonas Valanciunas3.82$5.782.89%
Dwyane Wade3.82$5.782.89%
JaMychal Green3.77$5.712.85%
Darren Collison3.77$4.502.25%
Brandon Ingram3.75$4.482.24%
Joe Ingles3.73$4.452.23%
Marvin Williams3.68$4.402.20%
Terrence Ross3.66$4.382.19%
Alex Len3.65$4.372.18%
Rudy Gay3.63$4.342.17%
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist3.62$4.332.16%
Thaddeus Young3.62$4.322.16%
Norman Powell3.56$4.252.12%
Seth Curry3.51$4.192.10%
Kent Bazemore3.46$4.132.07%
Dwight Howard3.37$2.871.43%
Skal Labissiere3.35$2.851.43%
Evan Fournier3.33$2.841.42%
Derrick Favors3.32$2.831.41%
Richaun Holmes3.27$2.791.39%
Ersan Ilyasova3.27$2.781.39%
De’Aaron Fox3.23$2.751.38%
Dewayne Dedmon3.23$2.751.37%
Jordan Clarkson3.22$2.741.37%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope3.22$2.741.37%
Wesley Matthews3.20$2.721.36%
Markieff Morris3.18$2.711.35%
Greg Monroe3.18$2.081.04%
Reggie Jackson3.17$2.081.04%
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson3.14$2.061.03%
Josh Jackson3.10$2.031.01%
Allen Crabbe3.04$1.990.99%
Josh Richardson3.04$1.990.99%
Tyler Johnson3.03$1.980.99%
Nikola Mirotic3.03$1.980.99%
J.J. Redick2.94$1.930.96%
Eric Gordon2.93$1.910.96%
Markelle Fultz2.91$1.900.95%
Moe Harkless2.90$1.900.95%
Milos Teodosic2.90$0.440.22%
Tyreke Evans2.82$0.420.21%
Wilson Chandler2.77$0.420.21%
Dirk Nowitzki2.76$0.410.21%
Al-Farouq Aminu2.69$0.400.20%
Will Barton2.68$0.400.20%
Zach LaVine2.60$1.000.50%
Pau Gasol2.50$0.380.19%
Jaylen Brown2.50$0.370.19%
Patty Mills2.44$0.370.18%
Boban Marjanovic2.39$0.360.18%
Caris LeVert2.38$0.360.18%
Ryan Anderson2.36$0.170.08%
Kelly Olynyk2.33$0.170.08%
Marcin Gortat2.30$0.160.08%
Dion Waiters2.28$0.160.08%
Dario Saric2.28$0.160.08%
Danny Green2.27$0.160.08%
Marcus Morris2.19$0.160.08%
Enes Kanter2.19$0.160.08%
Robin Lopez2.18$0.150.08%
Andre Iguodala2.17$0.150.08%
Stanley Johnson2.10$0.150.07%
Bojan Bogdanovic2.06$0.150.07%
Courtney Lee2.04$0.150.07%
C.J. Miles1.93$0.140.07%
Trevor Booker1.82$0.130.06%
Tyler Ulis1.80$0.130.06%
Larry Nance1.72$0.120.06%
Derrick Rose1.69$0.120.06%
Evan Turner1.67$0.120.06%
Tony Allen1.62$0.120.06%
Chandler Parsons1.54$0.110.05%
Taj Gibson1.50$0.110.05%
Lauri Markkanen1.50$0.110.05%
Caleb Swanigan1.41$0.100.05%
Cody Zeller1.39$0.100.05%
Austin Rivers1.27$0.090.05%
Kyle Kuzma1.17$0.080.04%
Justin Jackson1.17$0.080.04%
Jayson Tatum1.08$0.080.04%
Jarrett Allen0.97$0.070.03%
Jabari Parker0.82$0.060.03%