Auction drafts can be terrific. The tyranny of snake-draft positions can’t prevent you from acquiring your favorite players. You watch as opposing owners squander their salary cap on players you despise, and fill your final roster spot with a $6 roll of the dice. When you look back at the roster you’ve assembled, you find…a top-heavy team with no clear identity and a plethora of injury risks? How did this happen?
Russell Westbrook cost $84 and getting him felt great. With just $116 left for 12 more roster spots, however, you watched helplessly as player after player went far below market value in the mid-tier range. D’Angelo Russell for $16? You should have had him. Myles Turner for $31? Highway robbery. And that final player you spent $6 to acquire? That was Greg Monroe -- you took him because you desperately needed another center, and you only spent $6 because you miscalculated and had too much cash at the end of the draft.
Auction drafts are terrific...when they go well. When they go poorly, you destroy your chances of winning a league before it even begins. The good news is that simple planning can tilt the odds in your favor -- the first step is to have a working knowledge of auction-style drafts, and to come in with a clear strategy. For this, refer to Jared Johnson’s aptly-titled article, Auction Draft Strategy Guide.
The next step is to understand how much a player should be worth, roughly, given your league’s size and settings. With that goal in mind, I’ve created ‘theoretical auction values’ for the top-175 players in the 2017-18 season, as determined by my projected stats and fantasy values.
The auction prices below are based on 8-cat values, weighted by projected games played. To change individual players’ projected fantasy values, the league size, or the salary cap, just download the Excel file this is based upon! Before we get to individual prices, however, let’s step back and look at the big picture.
This chart is self-explanatory, showing the average cost of a pick in each round (the assumption is that there are 12 picks per round, but this too can be manipulated in the Excel file above). There’s a premium for elite players, clearly, whereas most auction owners can fill out their bench with a handful of guys in the $1-$5 range.
My projected values suggest that owners tend to overpay for elite options -- about $4.25 per positive z-score (for simplicity’s sake) in the first round, a figure that falls steadily as the draft progresses. This is somewhat misleading, however, since the limited number of elite players creates a classic free-market conundrum, wherein demand outstrips supply. Elite players often increase their appeal by contributing to categories which are harder to find late in drafts -- high-volume points and percentages, blocks and assists.
Let’s move on to the next chart.
There’s a lot of data in this chart. A few takeaways:
1) Every position’s price plummets after the first few rounds, and small forward is no exception. Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard lead the charge, after which there’s a steep drop-off to Paul George, another drop to Gordon Hayward, and then a relative plateau with Khris Middleton, Otto Porter, Andrew Wiggins and Nicolas Batum (pre-injury).
2) Shooting guards go from James Harden ($75) to Jimmy Butler ($41), after which there’s a pool of guys in the $30 range -- C.J. McCollum, Klay Thompson, DeMar DeRozan and Bradley Beal.
3) Power forwards have the fewest players who cost at least $30 -- Anthony Davis, Draymond Green and Kristaps Porzingis. The PF position drops off quickly this year, in terms of fantasy talent -- if you don’t land a top-tier power forward, you’ll probably end up relying on someone like Thaddeus Young, James Johnson, Markieff Morris or Zach Randolph.
4) Take another look at the elevated cost of point guards throughout fantasy drafts. You may be best served by acquiring an elite PG (or two) in the early goings, to avoid bidding wars as the draft progress. On the other hand, you could adopt a punt-assists strategy and build toward everything else, before filling out your PG spot with affordable, solid options like Pat Beverley, George Hill and Marcus Smart.
5) Look at the table below the chart, which shows the cost for each position. The 15th center being drafted in Yahoo leagues ($200 budget) is still commanding $10, whereas the 15th shooting guard and small forward both cost $3. Aside from point guards, centers have the longest ‘tail’ for auction prices -- we’re short on supply, but demand remains high throughout drafts.
Without further ado, here are my ‘theoretical’ auction prices, based on my own projected stats and fantasy values. As a final reminder, you can download all this stuff right here! I’ve made the Excel sheet as intuitive as possible, with instructions to change league size, salary cap totals, and more. If you have specific questions, send me a message on Twitter or an email.
8-cat Values (WEIGHTED BY PROJECTED GAMES PLAYED) | Theoretical Auction Price$ (assuming $200 per team) | % of Individual Team Budget | |
James Harden | 16.34 | $70.02 | 35.01% |
Giannis Antetokounmpo | 14.92 | $63.93 | 31.96% |
Russell Westbrook | 14.78 | $63.31 | 31.66% |
Karl-Anthony Towns | 14.19 | $60.81 | 30.41% |
Stephen Curry | 14.12 | $60.51 | 30.25% |
Kevin Durant | 13.17 | $56.45 | 28.23% |
LeBron James | 13.06 | $55.97 | 27.98% |
Anthony Davis | 12.40 | $53.11 | 26.56% |
John Wall | 12.14 | $52.03 | 26.02% |
Damian Lillard | 11.56 | $49.52 | 24.76% |
Nikola Jokic | 11.53 | $49.41 | 24.71% |
Kyrie Irving | 11.42 | $48.93 | 24.46% |
DeMarcus Cousins | 11.33 | $43.42 | 21.71% |
Rudy Gobert | 11.15 | $42.71 | 21.35% |
Chris Paul | 10.99 | $42.10 | 21.05% |
Paul George | 10.87 | $41.66 | 20.83% |
Kawhi Leonard | 10.84 | $41.54 | 20.77% |
Jimmy Butler | 10.81 | $41.42 | 20.71% |
Kyle Lowry | 10.32 | $39.56 | 19.78% |
Myles Turner | 9.84 | $37.70 | 18.85% |
Hassan Whiteside | 9.30 | $35.63 | 17.82% |
Draymond Green | 9.27 | $35.50 | 17.75% |
Kristaps Porzingis | 9.14 | $35.03 | 17.51% |
C.J. McCollum | 9.05 | $34.68 | 17.34% |
Kevin Love | 8.90 | $31.82 | 15.91% |
Kemba Walker | 8.80 | $31.49 | 15.74% |
Brook Lopez | 8.71 | $31.16 | 15.58% |
Bradley Beal | 8.58 | $30.68 | 15.34% |
Mike Conley | 8.29 | $29.64 | 14.82% |
Eric Bledsoe | 7.94 | $28.39 | 14.20% |
Marc Gasol | 7.56 | $27.04 | 13.52% |
Blake Griffin | 7.52 | $26.88 | 13.44% |
DeMar DeRozan | 7.50 | $26.84 | 13.42% |
Klay Thompson | 7.32 | $26.17 | 13.08% |
Victor Oladipo | 7.30 | $26.12 | 13.06% |
D’Angelo Russell | 7.22 | $22.66 | 11.33% |
Otto Porter | 7.20 | $22.61 | 11.31% |
Dennis Schroder | 7.04 | $22.11 | 11.05% |
Gordon Hayward | 7.03 | $22.07 | 11.04% |
Jeff Teague | 7.03 | $22.07 | 11.03% |
Ricky Rubio | 6.98 | $21.90 | 10.95% |
Paul Millsap | 6.86 | $21.52 | 10.76% |
Devin Booker | 6.78 | $21.28 | 10.64% |
Joel Embiid | 6.73 | $21.12 | 10.56% |
Khris Middleton | 6.59 | $20.68 | 10.34% |
Nicolas Batum | 6.58 | $20.64 | 10.32% |
Al Horford | 6.54 | $20.52 | 10.26% |
Jusuf Nurkic | 6.53 | $16.98 | 8.49% |
Dennis Smith Jr. | 6.48 | $23.18 | 11.59% |
Aaron Gordon | 6.32 | $16.45 | 8.22% |
Goran Dragic | 6.23 | $16.20 | 8.10% |
Jrue Holiday | 6.18 | $16.07 | 8.03% |
Nikola Vucevic | 6.02 | $15.66 | 7.83% |
Serge Ibaka | 6.00 | $15.61 | 7.80% |
Gary Harris | 5.91 | $15.37 | 7.69% |
Marquese Chriss | 5.64 | $14.67 | 7.33% |
Elfrid Payton | 5.55 | $14.42 | 7.21% |
Jamal Murray | 5.51 | $14.33 | 7.17% |
Andrew Wiggins | 5.44 | $14.15 | 7.07% |
James Johnson | 5.43 | $14.11 | 7.06% |
Ben Simmons | 5.34 | $12.06 | 6.03% |
Marcus Smart | 5.21 | $11.79 | 5.89% |
Jae Crowder | 5.21 | $11.77 | 5.88% |
Trevor Ariza | 5.19 | $11.74 | 5.87% |
Carmelo Anthony | 5.14 | $11.62 | 5.81% |
Lonzo Ball | 5.11 | $11.55 | 5.78% |
Avery Bradley | 5.04 | $11.39 | 5.70% |
George Hill | 5.02 | $11.35 | 5.68% |
LaMarcus Aldridge | 4.99 | $11.29 | 5.64% |
Taurean Prince | 4.96 | $11.22 | 5.61% |
Andre Drummond | 4.90 | $11.07 | 5.54% |
Isaiah Thomas | 4.85 | $10.96 | 5.48% |
T.J. Warren | 4.83 | $8.59 | 4.30% |
Harrison Barnes | 4.79 | $8.52 | 4.26% |
Buddy Hield | 4.79 | $8.51 | 4.26% |
Danilo Gallinari | 4.75 | $8.44 | 4.22% |
Jeremy Lin | 4.72 | $8.39 | 4.20% |
Tobias Harris | 4.71 | $8.38 | 4.19% |
Robert Covington | 4.71 | $8.38 | 4.19% |
Tim Hardaway Jr. | 4.58 | $8.14 | 4.07% |
Nerlens Noel | 4.54 | $8.07 | 4.03% |
DeAndre Jordan | 4.53 | $8.04 | 4.02% |
Patrick Beverley | 4.45 | $7.91 | 3.96% |
Julius Randle | 4.44 | $7.89 | 3.95% |
Willie Cauley Stein | 4.44 | $6.72 | 3.36% |
Clint Capela | 4.38 | $6.64 | 3.32% |
Rodney Hood | 4.35 | $6.58 | 3.29% |
Malcolm Brogdon | 4.12 | $6.25 | 3.12% |
Gorgui Dieng | 4.04 | $6.12 | 3.06% |
Lou Williams | 3.98 | $6.02 | 3.01% |
Steven Adams | 3.96 | $6.00 | 3.00% |
John Collins | 3.95 | $5.99 | 2.99% |
Rajon Rondo | 3.84 | $5.81 | 2.91% |
Jonas Valanciunas | 3.82 | $5.78 | 2.89% |
Dwyane Wade | 3.82 | $5.78 | 2.89% |
JaMychal Green | 3.77 | $5.71 | 2.85% |
Darren Collison | 3.77 | $4.50 | 2.25% |
Brandon Ingram | 3.75 | $4.48 | 2.24% |
Joe Ingles | 3.73 | $4.45 | 2.23% |
Marvin Williams | 3.68 | $4.40 | 2.20% |
Terrence Ross | 3.66 | $4.38 | 2.19% |
Alex Len | 3.65 | $4.37 | 2.18% |
Rudy Gay | 3.63 | $4.34 | 2.17% |
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | 3.62 | $4.33 | 2.16% |
Thaddeus Young | 3.62 | $4.32 | 2.16% |
Norman Powell | 3.56 | $4.25 | 2.12% |
Seth Curry | 3.51 | $4.19 | 2.10% |
Kent Bazemore | 3.46 | $4.13 | 2.07% |
Dwight Howard | 3.37 | $2.87 | 1.43% |
Skal Labissiere | 3.35 | $2.85 | 1.43% |
Evan Fournier | 3.33 | $2.84 | 1.42% |
Derrick Favors | 3.32 | $2.83 | 1.41% |
Richaun Holmes | 3.27 | $2.79 | 1.39% |
Ersan Ilyasova | 3.27 | $2.78 | 1.39% |
De’Aaron Fox | 3.23 | $2.75 | 1.38% |
Dewayne Dedmon | 3.23 | $2.75 | 1.37% |
Jordan Clarkson | 3.22 | $2.74 | 1.37% |
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 3.22 | $2.74 | 1.37% |
Wesley Matthews | 3.20 | $2.72 | 1.36% |
Markieff Morris | 3.18 | $2.71 | 1.35% |
Greg Monroe | 3.18 | $2.08 | 1.04% |
Reggie Jackson | 3.17 | $2.08 | 1.04% |
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | 3.14 | $2.06 | 1.03% |
Josh Jackson | 3.10 | $2.03 | 1.01% |
Allen Crabbe | 3.04 | $1.99 | 0.99% |
Josh Richardson | 3.04 | $1.99 | 0.99% |
Tyler Johnson | 3.03 | $1.98 | 0.99% |
Nikola Mirotic | 3.03 | $1.98 | 0.99% |
J.J. Redick | 2.94 | $1.93 | 0.96% |
Eric Gordon | 2.93 | $1.91 | 0.96% |
Markelle Fultz | 2.91 | $1.90 | 0.95% |
Moe Harkless | 2.90 | $1.90 | 0.95% |
Milos Teodosic | 2.90 | $0.44 | 0.22% |
Tyreke Evans | 2.82 | $0.42 | 0.21% |
Wilson Chandler | 2.77 | $0.42 | 0.21% |
Dirk Nowitzki | 2.76 | $0.41 | 0.21% |
Al-Farouq Aminu | 2.69 | $0.40 | 0.20% |
Will Barton | 2.68 | $0.40 | 0.20% |
Zach LaVine | 2.60 | $1.00 | 0.50% |
Pau Gasol | 2.50 | $0.38 | 0.19% |
Jaylen Brown | 2.50 | $0.37 | 0.19% |
Patty Mills | 2.44 | $0.37 | 0.18% |
Boban Marjanovic | 2.39 | $0.36 | 0.18% |
Caris LeVert | 2.38 | $0.36 | 0.18% |
Ryan Anderson | 2.36 | $0.17 | 0.08% |
Kelly Olynyk | 2.33 | $0.17 | 0.08% |
Marcin Gortat | 2.30 | $0.16 | 0.08% |
Dion Waiters | 2.28 | $0.16 | 0.08% |
Dario Saric | 2.28 | $0.16 | 0.08% |
Danny Green | 2.27 | $0.16 | 0.08% |
Marcus Morris | 2.19 | $0.16 | 0.08% |
Enes Kanter | 2.19 | $0.16 | 0.08% |
Robin Lopez | 2.18 | $0.15 | 0.08% |
Andre Iguodala | 2.17 | $0.15 | 0.08% |
Stanley Johnson | 2.10 | $0.15 | 0.07% |
Bojan Bogdanovic | 2.06 | $0.15 | 0.07% |
Courtney Lee | 2.04 | $0.15 | 0.07% |
C.J. Miles | 1.93 | $0.14 | 0.07% |
Trevor Booker | 1.82 | $0.13 | 0.06% |
Tyler Ulis | 1.80 | $0.13 | 0.06% |
Larry Nance | 1.72 | $0.12 | 0.06% |
Derrick Rose | 1.69 | $0.12 | 0.06% |
Evan Turner | 1.67 | $0.12 | 0.06% |
Tony Allen | 1.62 | $0.12 | 0.06% |
Chandler Parsons | 1.54 | $0.11 | 0.05% |
Taj Gibson | 1.50 | $0.11 | 0.05% |
Lauri Markkanen | 1.50 | $0.11 | 0.05% |
Caleb Swanigan | 1.41 | $0.10 | 0.05% |
Cody Zeller | 1.39 | $0.10 | 0.05% |
Austin Rivers | 1.27 | $0.09 | 0.05% |
Kyle Kuzma | 1.17 | $0.08 | 0.04% |
Justin Jackson | 1.17 | $0.08 | 0.04% |
Jayson Tatum | 1.08 | $0.08 | 0.04% |
Jarrett Allen | 0.97 | $0.07 | 0.03% |
Jabari Parker | 0.82 | $0.06 | 0.03% |