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At a glance:
Record: 47-35 (7th, East)
Offensive Rating: 116.2 (14th)
Defensive Rating: 113.0 (11th)
Net Rating: 3.1 (9th)
Pace: 98.17 (18th)
2024 NBA Draft Picks: 16, 41
Expected to be among the East’s elite before the season began, the Philadelphia 76ers played to that level early on despite dealing with the James Harden saga. Nick Nurse’s team won eight of its first ten games and began a late-January road trip with a 29-13 record. Unfortunately, that is when things would turn in the wrong direction, as Joel Embiid injured his knee during a January 20 loss to the Warriors. The reigning MVP did not return to action until early April, with the 76ers falling into the play-in spots in his absence.
Winning 47 games isn’t disastrous, but it’s fair to wonder what could have been for the 76ers had Embiid remained healthy. Tyrese Maxey played at an elite level, winning the league’s Most Improved Player award and looking like a player Philadelphia can build around moving forward. However, next season’s roster will look different, as many contributors will be free agents this summer. Lead executive Daryl Morey prioritized roster flexibility, and Philadelphia will undoubtedly have that once June 30 hits.
With Embiid under contract and Maxey due to a significant payday as a restricted free agent, the question is who will fill out the roster. Tobias Harris disappointed during the first-round series against the Knicks, and the feeling is that he’ll be headed elsewhere this summer. Among the other free agents are in-season additions such as Kyle Lowry and Buddy Hield and veterans such as Nicolas Batum and Kelly Oubre Jr. While evaluating the fantasy prospects of Embiid and Maxey ahead of next season will be relatively easy, they’re the exceptions in Philadelphia.
Fantasy Standout: Joel Embiid
One could argue that, for availability reasons, Embiid was a fantasy disappointment. The 2023 NBA MVP was limited to 39 games this season, the lowest tally since his rookie season (31 games in 2016-17). However, that doesn’t erase the fact that he was elite when available. According to Basketball Monster, the 2023 NBA MVP ranked first in 8- and 9-cat per-game value, averaging 34.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.7 blocks, and 1.4 3-pointers in 33.6 minutes per game. Embiid’s percentages were also elite, as he shot 52.9% from the field and 88.3% from the foul line. Before the knee injury, he was on track to have the best season of his NBA career, as he averaged career-highs in points, assists, steals, and 3-pointers.
The knee injury meant that Embiid was no help to fantasy managers looking to make a championship run in their leagues. A player selected with, at worst, a top-4 pick (Yahoo ADP: 3.5) is near impossible to replace in lineups if they’ve suffered a significant injury. Adding Paul Reed or Mo Bamba wouldn’t come close to delivering decent value, much less production par with what was lost once Embiid went down. He did play 68 and 66 games in the two seasons prior, but Embiid’s expected appearance in the Paris Olympics may concern some fantasy managers since he was not at full strength during the playoff series with the Knicks.
Fantasy Revelation: Tyrese Maxey
With James Harden making it clear during the summer that he wanted out of Philadelphia, it can be argued that fantasy managers did not adjust Maxey’s draft value enough. He had a Yahoo ADP of 57.1, and while hindsight is 20/20, that was way too high given the situation. The 2020 first-round pick was sensational in his fourth season with the 76ers, appearing in 70 games and recording averages of 25.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks, and 3.0 3-pointers in 37.5 minutes. Shooting 45.0% from the field and 86.8% from the foul line, Maxey established career-highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and 3-pointers.
Maxey was a top-25 player in totals and a top-20 per-game player in 9-cat formats. Also, he averaged 1.7 turnovers per game; despite the increase in usage (from 24.1 in 2022-23 to 28.0 this season), the offensive rating (121) was one point higher than his number the season prior. Philadelphia did not sign Maxey to a rookie extension before this season, so keeping him in restricted free agency will cost more. However, given how well he’s played, the 76ers should be happy to pay that price. Embiid remains the centerpiece, but Maxey is the reliable “second star” Philadelphia has been looking for.
Fantasy Disappointment: Buddy Hield
Throughout his NBA career, Hield has not been shy about discussing his preference for being a starter. He began this season with the Pacers and came off the bench in each of his first 12 appearances. While a move into the starting lineup in late November resulted in a short-term boost to his production, Hield had inconsistency issues. Ultimately, he was traded to the 76ers at the February deadline, a move that was viewed as one that could potentially boost his value. It did in the immediate aftermath, but Hield’s defensive struggles led Nick Nurse to move him to the bench and then back in the rotation during the postseason.
Thanks to the trade, Hield appeared in 84 games (42 starts) this season, averaging 12.1 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, and 2.6 3-pointers in 25.7 minutes. Shooting 43.6% from the field and 88.1% from the foul line, Buddy’s scoring average decreased by nearly five points compared to 2022-23 (16.8). He didn’t finish close to his Yahoo ADP (83.0), ranking well outside the top 100 in 8- and 9-cat formats. Hield will be a free agent this summer, and landing with a team that can guarantee him a starting role would boost his fantasy value. However, that kind of role would likely be available with a team that doesn’t have short-term title aspirations.
Fantasy Recaps/Look-Aheads
Tobias Harris:
While he has been no worse than a top 65 player in fantasy basketball since the 2013-14 season, Harris isn’t a player many fantasy managers are willing to take that high in drafts. The veteran forward had a Yahoo ADP of 90.3 this season and finished as a top 50 player in 9-cat formats. Appearing in 70 games, Harris averaged 17.2 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.7 blocks, and 1.3 3-pointers in 33.8 minutes per game. Shooting 48.7% from the field and 87.8% from the foul line, he certainly did not have a “bad” fantasy season.
However, there was the feeling that his production was underwhelming, especially with the Harden trade pushing Harris up in the offensive pecking order. His scoring dipped after the All-Star break, averaging 16.0 points per game on 44.6% shooting (17.7 ppg on 50.7% shooting pre-break), and the 76ers were without Embiid for most of that segment of the schedule. Not having the big man on the floor impacted Philadelphia’s offensive spacing, with Harris paying a price that Tyrese Maxey did not. Add in a poor playoff series against the Knicks, and the negative feelings are understandable. Harris will be an unrestricted free agent, and he will have suitors. If Harris can land in a spot where he’s unquestionably one of the primary scoring options, that would improve his ADP.
De’Anthony Melton:
After finishing the 2022-23 season, his first in Philadelphia, as a top 75 fantasy player, Melton appeared poised for similar success in 2023-24. Unfortunately, a lumbar spine injury limited him to 38 appearances. A starter in 33 outings, Melton averaged 11.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.6 steals, and 2.0 3-pointers in 26.9 minutes, shooting 38.6% from the field and 83.5% from the foul line. Even with the low field goal percentage, he provided 7th-round per-game value in 9-cat formats.
The problem for fantasy managers was Melton’s availability, or lack thereof. Availability was not an issue for him in the two seasons prior, so hopefully, he can avoid serious injury in 2024-25. Like many of the rotation players on the 76ers roster, Melton will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. He was a regular starter during these two seasons in Philadelphia, and a similar role gives Melton a top-100 upside.
Kyle Lowry:
Lowry’s streak of 12 consecutive top 75 fantasy seasons ended in 2022-23, but he remained a solid contributor for a Heat squad that reached the NBA Finals. His production fell off considerably this season, with Miami ultimately sending him and a 2027 first to Charlotte in exchange for Terry Rozier. Finally waived by the Hornets on February 11, Lowry officially returned to his hometown two days later and proved to be a solid contributor with the 76ers. In 23 regular season appearances for Philadelphia (20 starts), he averaged 8.0 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.6 3-pointers in 28.4 minutes, shooting 44.4% from the field and 84.8% from the foul line.
That production placed Lowry outside the top 150 in 9-cat formats from February 15 onward, not enough to justify rostering him in most leagues. He will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, but Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Enquirer reported that Lowry is one of the three veterans (Oubre and Batum are the others) the team would like to re-sign. While he has been a solid fit alongside Embiid and Maxey, Lowry no longer offers a fantasy ceiling worth gambling on in drafts.
Kelly Oubre Jr.:
After enjoying the best individual season of his NBA career in 2022-23 as a member of the Hornets, Oubre agreed to a one-year deal with the 76ers just before the start of training camp. And it proved to be a solid move by the franchise, as he appeared in 68 games (52 starts) and provided solid offensive production on the wing. Oubre finished the regular season with averages of 15.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.7 blocks, and 1.5 3-pointers in 30.2 minutes, shooting 44.1% from the field and 75.0% from the foul line.
That may not have been elite production, but the Tsunami Papi exceeded his Yahoo ADP (142.2) in per-game and total value. As a free agent this summer, Oubre’s fantasy value in 2024-25 will be dictated by where he lands and where he’ll be placed within the rotation. As noted above, he is reportedly one of the veteran free agents the 76ers hope to re-sign. However, if Philadelphia were to sign (or acquire) a star wing, that would lower Oubre’s fantasy ceiling.
Nicolas Batum:
Batum began this season with the Clippers, playing three games in a reserve role before being traded to Philadelphia as part of the Harden deal. The change of scenery was good for the veteran wing, who started 38 of the 57 games he appeared in. Batum produced averages of 5.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 1.2 3-pointers with Philadelphia, shooting 45.6% from the field and 71.4% from the foul line. Fantasy managers didn’t expect to get much value out of Batum, and that’s how things played out, as he finished the season ranked well outside the top 150. He’s one of the veterans Philadelphia is reportedly interested in bringing back, but Batum is unlikely to be a player in fantasy basketball, regardless of where he plays in 2024-25.
Paul Reed:
With Nick Nurse talking up Reed last summer, there was hope he could offer reliable late-round value, even if Embiid were to play at least 60 games. He was undoubtedly available, playing in all 82 regular season games (24 starts) and establishing career highs in points, rebounds, assists, and blocks. However, “BBall Paul” did not have the impact that fantasy managers may have hoped for. He averaged 7.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, and 1.0 blocks in 19.4 minutes, shooting 54.0% from the field and 71.8% from the foul line.
Unfortunately, his production did not increase significantly during the two months the 76ers were without Embiid. In 29 games (13 starts), Reed averaged 8.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.8 steals, and 1.5 blocks in 24.4 minutes, shooting 50% from the field and 76.7% from the foul line. While he did average more minutes per game than Mo Bamba during that period, Reed’s inability to make the starting center role his own while Philadelphia awaited Embiid’s return was disappointing. As was the case before this season, Reed will be a player worth taking a late-round flier on. However, the expectations will be tempered this time around.
Cameron Payne:
Payne was traded from Phoenix to San Antonio in mid-July, with the Spurs waiving him just before training camp. That allowed the backup point guard to seek a role with a contending team, which he appeared to find in Milwaukee. He appeared in 47 games with the Bucks, averaging 6.2 points, 1.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.5 steals, and 1.0 3-pointers in 14.9 minutes. Milwaukee’s decision to trade Payne at the February deadline benefitted the guard, as his numbers increased in Philadelphia.
In 31 regular season appearances with the 76ers, Payne accounted for 9.3 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.6 steals, and 1.7 3-pointers in 19.4 minutes, shooting 41.3% from the field and 91.3% from the foul line. While New York eliminated Philadelphia in the first round of the playoffs, Payne gave the 76ers much-needed energy off the bench after beginning the series out of the rotation. He should have options in free agency this summer, but the fantasy ceiling will be low. Payne may have streaming value at various points of next season, but that’s the most that fantasy managers should expect from him.
Restricted Free Agents: Tyrese Maxey, Terquavion Smith
Unrestricted Free Agents: Tobias Harris, Buddy Hield, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, De’Anthony Melton, Kyle Lowry, Mo Bamba, KJ Martin, Kelly Oubre Jr., Cameron Payne
