With the major free agency moves already in the books, Noah Rubin, Zak Hanshew and Raphielle Johnson got together to weigh in on the early 2024-25 NBA power rankings.
Post Free Agency Power Rankings
The team was aligned at the top, as the Celtics and Thunder (the No. 1 seeds in 2023-24) finish atop our early power rankings. The new-look Knicks come in just behind the Wolves, while the reigning Western Conference champions Mavs round out the top-5.
Once considered the next dynasty after their 2022-23 championship run, the Nuggets are now outside the top-5 thanks to another brutal offseason in which Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was lost. Philly comes in at No. 6 thanks to the Big 3 of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George, and the Milwaukee Bucks come in at No. 8 after standing pat in free agency.
The team agreed on Boston, OKC, Cleveland, Utah and the Lakers, but opinions varied on the Pacers and Kings. Indiana made an improbable run to the Eastern Conference Finals, but can the team find sustained success without an eventful free agency period? Sacramento made a spashy trade for DeMar DeRozan, but will it move the needle in a competitive Western Conference?
Q: Which five teams were the biggest risers in free agency?
- Knicks. Losing Isaiah Hartenstein isn’t ideal, but adding Mikal Bridges gives them one of the best perimeter defenses in the league.
- 76ers. Replacing Tobias Harris with Paul George is a massive upgrade and gives them a talented trio on which to build this team.
- Kings. It may not be the best “fit”, but DeMar DeRozan makes this team a lot more talented, especially since he is replacing Harrison Barnes.
- Warriors. Losing Klay Thompson isn’t ideal, but adding Buddy Hield, De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson will help make up for it.
- Mavericks. If Klay is able to play better than he did last season, Dallas should have a good chance of returning to the NBA Finals. -Rubin
- Knicks. The Villanova band added another rockstar in Mikal Bridges, and re-signing OG Anunoby gives the Knicks one of the best starting fives in the NBA.
- 76ers. Who doesn’t love a good Big 3? PG should be the third option behind Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, making this a lethal trio. Andre Drummond is a sneaky-good addition who will provide quality backup depth behind Embiid, which the team sorely missed a season ago.
- Kings. De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis get an excellent teammate in DeMar DeRozan, who’s an instant upgrade to Harrison Barnes.
- Thunder. Oklahoma City got crushed on the boards last season, so the team addressed that concern by signing Isaiah Hartenstein. Trading Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso was another savvy move to upgrade the perimeter defense and eliminate some redundancy in the backcourt.
- Magic. Orlando’s defense was one of the best in the league last season, and the team improved even more by adding Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. KCP also provides some much-needed three-point shooting for the worst long-range team in the Association. -Hanshew
- Mavericks. The Western Conference champions lost a little defensive versatility with Derrick Jones Jr. moving on, but the additions of Klay Thompson and Naji Marshall will help matter. Another reason for this pick: Luka Doncic will have a full offseason to get healthy after Slovenia failed to qualify for the Paris Olympics. Don’t be surprised if he wins his first NBA MVP award.
- Pacers. I’m not sure people are giving the Pacers enough respect after their run to the Eastern Conference Finals. The only player exit of note was Jalen Smith, whose minutes can easily be absorbed by the bigs currently on the Pacers roster. Re-signing Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin keeps the numbers where they need to be rotation-wise, and they’ll have a healthy Bennedict Mathurin as well.
- Grizzlies. Given the many injuries the Grizzlies had to endure last season, this is an easy choice. Having a healthy Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Marcus Smart on the perimeter will do wonders for this team. Also, adding Zach Edey to the frontcourt rotation will help Jaren Jackson Jr., who’s at his best defensively when allowed to essentially function as a “free safety” on the back line.
- Rockets. The Rockets made significant strides in Ime Udoka’s first season as head coach, improving their win total by 19 games. Of course, adding veterans such as Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks and draft pick Amen Thompson also helped matters. This season, the additions of Steven Adams and lottery pick Reed Sheppard will help the Rockets continue to move in the right direction, and having a healthy Tari Eason will also be impactful.
- Spurs. We expected Victor Wembanyama to be good as a rookie, but he managed to be even better than advertised. With a season of NBA experience under his belt, I expect Wemby to be even better. What will also help are the additions to the roster, with the Spurs signing Chris Paul and acquiring Harrison Barnes to become more experienced. Also, lottery pick Stephon Castle has immense potential and is good enough to make an impact as a rookie. -Johnson
Q: Which five teams were the biggest fallers in free agency?
- Nets. They’re building towards the future, and they got a lot of draft capital back for Mikal Bridges. Will Cooper Flagg be a Net?
- Clippers. Losing Paul George for nothing is suboptimal, and they haven’t made many moves to replace his production.
- Bulls. They didn’t get much back at all for DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso. They still have moves to make, but this roster is weaker than last year.
- Nuggets. They let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope go to the Magic, and they haven’t replaced him yet. That may end up being a costly loss for them.
- Hawks. If Dyson Daniels develops, it will make things a little better. However, if he doesn’t take a step forward, then the Hawks will certainly take a step back after trading Dejounte Murray. - Rubin
- Nuggets. Bruce Brown and Jeff Green left last season. KCP left this season. This team is still wildly talented with the reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, but the loss of Caldwell-Pope will definitely be felt, and the bench is ridiculously thin.
- Clippers. No PG and a weak bench make this team a tough sell. Health is a major concern for Kawhi Leonard and James Harden.
- Bucks. Philly and New York loaded up, Boston locked up its starting five and Milwaukee… stood pat with one of the oldest teams in the league. Big time L.
- Bulls. The rebuild is on, and it won’t be shocking if Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic are in different uniforms when the 2024-25 campaign tips off.
- Nets. Mikal Bridges was the last vestige of stardom on the roster, and he was sent to the cross-town rivals for peanuts. Brooklyn is in full “drag for Flagg” mode. -Hanshew
- Clippers. Had the Clippers simply lost Paul George in free agency, I would not have been too concerned. But Kawhi Leonard having to leave Team USA training camp due to his knee, which was believed to be at full strength, is an issue. While James Harden can take on an expanded role with George in Philadelphia, PG’s exit makes Leonard’s health even more important. And with some of the West’s non-playoff teams improving, I think the Clippers take a hit in 2024-25.
- Lakers. This pick isn’t about any JJ Redick skepticism, but rather questioning if this roster improved. With LeBron James and Anthony Davis leading the way, the Lakers should enter any game with confidence. However, there were no significant additions to the roster; the front office is essentially betting on a combination of player development (Max Christie and Austin Reaves, especially), Gabe Vincent staying healthy, and first-round pick Dalton Knecht being ready to make an impact as a rookie. Similar to the Clippers, with some of the other teams in the West getting better, the Lakers are one of the teams that will take a hit.
- Nets. Get ready for some high-scoring “in a losing effort” performances from Cam Thomas. While trading Mikal Bridges to the Knicks restocked the Nets’ once-barren draft coffers (as did recouping the picks they gave Houston in the James Harden trade), Brooklyn appears poised to take a major hit in 2024-25. Re-signing Nic Claxton means this team will have at least one fantasy stud, and I like Noah Clowney’s potential. But where will the scoring come from beyond Thomas and Claxton?
- Heat. The Heat were the 8-seed in last season’s playoffs, and while I do like the addition of Kel’El Ware via the draft, I’m not sure this team can regain its status as one of the East’s elite. Jimmy Butler, who did not receive a contract extension, has played 65 games or more just once since his final season with the Bulls (2016-17). Even with some of the other talents on this roster, the Heat go as Jimmy does. And I’m not sure he’ll play the games needed to make the Heat a contender.
- Bulls. No DeMar DeRozan, no Alex Caruso...and the Bulls moved both without getting credible draft capital in return. Meanwhile, they can’t move Zach LaVine’s contract, and Nikola Vucevic appears destined to stick around as well. Watching Matas Buzelis develop will be fun, but I have a hard time seeing this team hang around for a play-in spot next season. -Johnson
Q: Which team will improve its record by the most games?
Grizzlies. After winning 51 games during the 2022-23 season, Memphis only won 27 last year due to the injuries they dealt with. As long as they’re able to stay relatively healthy, they should be able to win at least 20 more games. The Grizzlies faltered in the first round two years ago, so there should be some added motivation to remind the league of how good this team is when they’re all on the court together. -Rubin
Spurs. As Noah mentioned, the Grizzlies dealt with a ton of injuries last season, so picking them to improve their record dramatically makes sense. I’m going a different route here and looking to a team with a transcendent talent in Victor Wembanyama. Wemby was the easy choice for 2023-24 Rookie of the Year, and he did things on the basketball court we’ve never seen. San Antonio added Stephon Castle in the lottery and landed Chris Paul in free agency to bolster the backcourt, and Harrison Barnes adds needed depth and talent at forward. The Spurs won only 22 games a season ago, so adding 15-20 wins wouldn’t be out of the question. Honorable mention goes to the 21-win Hornets who could be so much better with a healthy LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams and another season of Brandon Miller. The East is top-heavy and got much weaker at the bottom. -Hanshew
Grizzlies. Again, this is an easy choice. After winning 56 and 51 games the two seasons prior, the Grizzlies dropped to 27 wins in 2023-24 due largely to a rash of injuries. Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Marcus Smart being available will give Taylor Jenkins’ team a welcome boost, as will having Brandon Clarke for a full season. Add in lottery pick Zach Edey, and there’s no way the Grizzlies approach the depths they reached in 2023-24. The question is whether or not they can crack the Oklahoma City/Denver/Minnesota triumvirate that finished atop the Western Conference standings last season. I believe they’re capable of doing so. -Johnson
Which team’s record will decrease by the most games?
Clippers. With respect to Derrick Jones Jr., he won’t be able to replace Paul George’s production. They still have time to make more moves, but as of now, Jones Jr. should be the player that fills out the open starting spot. Kawhi Leonard is dealing with another knee issue, which forced him to withdraw from the Olympics. Hopefully, that will allow him to be healthy to start next season, but can an aging Kawhi and James Harden guide this team to 50 wins again? It doesn’t feel likely. -Rubin
Clippers. I’ve got to go with my man Noah here. Los Angeles overachieved a season ago thanks to healthy seasons from all of the team’s Big 3. Paul George left in free agency, and Kawhi Leonard missed four of six playoff games. It’s hard to imagine Leonard or James Harden staying healthy in consecutive seasons, and this roster is quite weak after the top two players. There’s no way this team will crack 50 wins again. -Hanshew
Nets. Cam Thomas is prone to offensive explosions, and Nic Claxton is a talented big man who will take on an increased role next season. Then what? Dennis Schroder played well after he was acquired from the Raptors, but he, Dorian Finney-Smith, and even Cameron Johnson look like players the Nets may be willing to move for the right price. While I am looking forward to more Noah Clowney minutes and a healthy Dariq Whitehead can be a productive player in time, on paper, the Nets do not look like a good basketball team. They won 32 games last season, a decrease of 13 from the season prior. I don’t see the dip being that severe, but Brooklyn will be hard-pressed to reach 30 wins. -Johnson
