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At a glance:
Record: 49-33 (3rd, East)
Offensive Rating: 117.6 (6th)
Defensive Rating: 115.0 (19th)
Net Rating: 2.6 (10th)
Pace: 100.5 (8th)
2024 NBA Draft Picks: 23, 33
It’s been a tough three years for Milwaukee since hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy back in 2021. The following season, the Bucks were bounced in the Eastern Conference semis, and Milwaukee has made a first-round exit in two straight playoffs. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed all six games of the 2023-24 playoffs, and he was largely unavailable in 2022-23.
The Bucks brought in Damian Lillard last summer in a blockbuster deal that was expected to put Milwaukee over the top in the Eastern Conference. Instead, the Bucks finished with their lowest winning percentage in six seasons and came away with the No. 3 seed. Antetokounmpo missed the playoffs, but both he and Dame logged 73 games apiece. Curiously, coach Adrian Griffin led the team to a 30-13 record before getting fired and replaced by Doc Rivers, who guided the team to a 17-19 record.
The Bucks have won their division six straight seasons, but the Indiana Pacers may be knocking on the door after an improbable run to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Cavaliers could make some noise if the team is able to avoid major injuries. The Bucks’ place in the Central Division is far from secure, and Milwaukee’s place in the Eastern Conference pecking order is tenuous with Boston, Philadelphia and New York in position to improve in 2024-25.
While things haven’t gone as planned in the realm of real-world hoops, Milwaukee still boasts a pair of elite fantasy options and some worthwhile draft picks. Here’s how things went in 2023-24 and what fantasy managers should expect for next season.
Fantasy Standout: Damian Lillard
As mentioned above, Dame’s first season in Milwaukee wasn’t all sunshine, lollipops and rainbows. His 73 games played were his most since the 2018-19 season, but his averages fell in a number of categories. Lillard finished 21st in per-game fantasy value after finishing seventh (second-best of his career) in 2022-23. He was drafted as a first-round fantasy option, but he finished as a back-end second-rounder, making him a candidate for “fantasy disappointment.” He had the best per-game season of anyone in Milwaukee, so he earns a place as the standout.
Lillard averaged 24.3 points, 4.4 boards, 7.0 dimes, 1.0 steals and 3.0 triples while shooting 42.4% from the floor and 92.0% from the charity stripe. While his overall production left fantasy managers wanting, Lillard tapped the imaginary watch on his wrist more than once, accumulating 12 double-doubles and posting three 40-point games.
Dame becomes the first player in @Bucks history with 40+ points, 10+ assists and 5+ threes in a game!
— NBA (@NBA) January 20, 2024
45 PTS
12-22 FGM
16-16 FTM
5 3PM
11 AST
W pic.twitter.com/C1eQrVewRl
The Bucks aren’t in a position to make another major move this offseason, and there’s no reason to expect a decline in minutes or production heading into his second season with Milwaukee. Lillard missed two playoff games due to an Achilles injury, but he’s fully expected to be healthy heading into the 2024-25 campaign. Fantasy managers can draft him confidently at the end of the second round.
Fantasy Revelation: Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Greek Freak had a “freaky” 2022-23 season in which he finished outside the top-100 in per-game fantasy value. That’s not a typo, but his “down year” was horribly marred by his shooting from the charity stripe. Giannis led the league in FT attempts but shot below 65% at the line. Just like Walker Kessler’s monster blocks buoyed his fantasy value, Giannis’ value was tanked due to his poor showing in just one category.
In 2023-24, he was back as a third-rounder and finished 32nd in per-game fantasy value thanks to a dip in FT attempts and a small improvement (65.7%) in efficiency from the line. He averaged 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists (career high), 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks. His efficiency from the line improved marginally, but he shot a career-best 61.1% from the field. He’s now put up at least 27/11/5 for six straight seasons, and he’s averaged at least one steal and one block in eight of his last nine.
Giannis was HEATED when the Pacers took the game ball after his 64-point career night 😳
— Basketball Forever (@bballforever_) December 14, 2023
(via @NBA) pic.twitter.com/8noQksb67c
Overall, per-game fantasy value is a good barometer for how a player performs relative to his peers, but simply looking at that number doesn’t paint the full picture. Antetokounmpo is easily a first-round draft pick every season, and managers who take him there understand his limitations in the FT% category. Those drafting him will likely employ a punt-build to mitigate that poor production, and Giannis was fantasy’s third-best player in a punt-FT% build. He’s still in his prime and should be taken in the top-10 without hesitation.
Fantasy Disappointment: Khris Middelton
Coming off of a 33-game, injury-riddled season in 2022-23, Middleton’s fantasy stock hit the skids heading into the 2023-24 campaign. He was drafted as a seventh-rounder on average, and he finished 90th in per-game fantasy value. He was available more often but stil appeared in just 55 games thanks to more injuries.
Middleton averaged 15.1 points, 4.7 boards, 5.3 dimes, 0.9 steals and 1.7 triples while shooting 49.3% from the floor and 83.3% from the charity stripe. He averaged just 27.0 minutes per tilt, up slightly from the 24.3 he averaged the season prior. After eight straight top-65 fantasy seasons, Middleton has finished 90th or worse in two straight.
Khris Middleton in Game 3:
— Overtime (@overtime) April 27, 2024
42 PTS
16/29 FG
4/9 3PM
10 REB
5 AST pic.twitter.com/fNcCZ8O6Yh
With Giannis injured in the playoffs, Middleton stepped up and averaged 24.7 points, 9.2 boards and 4.7 dimes, scoring 42 against Indiana in Game BLANK and showcasing just how good he can still be. The problem with his flashes of greatness is that they don’t appear to be sustainable anymore. Fantasy managers should approach Middleton with caution in 2024-25 fantasy drafts and target him around the top-100 turn. Taking him earlier than that presents a big risk.
Fantasy Recaps/Look-Aheads
Brook Lopez: I once called Brook Lopez the “most boring player you can draft in fantasy hoops,” and I’ll stick with that heading into the 2024-25 season. There’s nothing exciting about this guy, but he’s always available, and he’s elite in a category where production is scarce. He may be boring, but he’s certainly worth a pick in the mid-to-later rounds of fantasy drafts.
BroLo finished 47th in per-game fantasy value in 2023-24 behind 12.5 points, 5.2 boards, 1.6 assists, 2.4 blocks and 1.9 triples. The blocks and three-pointers were the second-most of his career, and he appeared in 79 games. In six seasons with the Bucks, Lopez has played at least 70 games four times and at least 68 games five times. He’s been a top-100 player in five of those and a top-50 player in four. Lopez swatted at least two shots in 56 games this season. He just turned 36 in April, but Lopez looks like he still has enough left in the tank to be a worthy fantasy option for his blocks alone.
Bobby Portis: Big Bobby P took a step back in 2023-24, and he finished with averages of 13.8 points, 7.4 boards, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.4 blocks and 1.2 triples. He averaged just 24.5 minutes, and aside from his steals, all of his counting stats were three-year lows. Fortunately for fantasy managers who rostered him, he was available for all 82 regular-season games. He finished 108th in per-game fantasy value and 64th in totals.
Portis has had success in his own right throughout his tenure with the Bucks, and he’s finished inside the top-125 in per-game fantasy value in every season he’s played with Milwaukee. He’s at his best, however, when Giannis Antetokounmpo is unavailable.
“That’s for you, Hubie!”
— Malika Andrews (@malika_andrews) March 17, 2024
Love this moment from Bobby Portis, who finished with 31 points in the Bucks win over the Suns. pic.twitter.com/OTMfSeoYm4
Portis averaged 16.7 points, 10.6 boards, 1.4 dimes and 1.1 steals over the final nine games of the season (regular season and playoffs) with Giannis out, and over the last three seasons, he’s averaged 17.7 points and 10.4 boards in 37 such appearances. Portis should be taken at the end of 2024-25 fantasy drafts as an end-of-bench option who can put up strong numbers when inserted into the starting five.
Malik Beasley: Beasley enjoyed the second-best fantasy finish of his career, ending the 2023-24 campaign 154th in per-game fantasy value. He went for 11.3 points, 3.7 boards, 1.4 assists, 0.7 steals and 2.8 triples across 29.6 minutes per game. The minutes were the second-most of his career, and he knocked down at least 2.8 three-pointers for the fourth straight season. Beasley was available for 79 games, and he offered quality production from beyond the arc. Aside from his strong output in that one category, he wasn’t a great fantasy option, and he can be left on the waiver wire outside of deeper leagues in 2024-25 fantasy drafts.
Restricted Free Agents: None
Unrestricted Free Agents: Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Jae Crowder, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Danilo Gallinari
