With summer league and the Paris Olympics completed, we’ve reached the point in the NBA calendar where there isn’t much going on. League schedules are expected to drop soon, giving us some things to discuss before training camp begins in late September. And there’s never a wrong time to discuss players whose fantasy values could improve next season due to either a change in scenery or a change to the rotation they already belong to. Here are a few players who could fit the bill and benefit your fantasy teams this winter.
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Josh Giddey (2023-24 Yahoo ADP: 62)
After improving his fantasy value from Year 1 to Year 2, Giddey took a significant hit during his third season with the Thunder. This wasn’t a complete shock, as the addition of Chet Holmgren and the continued growth of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams meant that someone would take a hit. Giddey’s per-game and totals fantasy values did not fall off significantly, and his per-36 value improved, according to Basketball Monster. However, it became apparent that a change would need to be made, especially as his minutes decreased significantly during the postseason.
Enter the Chicago Bulls, who acquired Giddey from the Thunder in exchange for Alex Caruso in one of the most surprising offseason moves (since Chicago did not get any future draft capital in addition to Giddey). The change of scenery could give his fantasy value a welcome boost, as the Bulls need a rebuild and improved playmaking at the point. What should also encourage fantasy managers was Giddey’s play in Paris, as in four games, he posted averages of 17.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.3 blocks, and 2.3 3-pointers, shooting 50.0% from the field, 47.4% from three, and 53.8% from the foul line.
Whether the perimeter shooting accuracy can be sustained is up for debate, especially considering the closer 3-point line (in FIBA competition) and Giddey’s free-throw struggles. However, the move to Chicago should result in him taking on a larger role than what would have been in store for him had the Thunder not made the trade.
Chris Paul (75)
By no means was Paul a “bad” fantasy player during his lone season with the Warriors, ranking just inside the top 100 in 9-cat per-game value. However, the combination of injuries (58 games played) and new role (18 starts) significantly impacted the future Hall of Fame point guard’s production. Paul finished the 2023-24 campaign with a career-low average of 9.2 points per game, and the 6.8 assists were the fewest for him since the 2018-19 season (career-low 6.7 per game in Houston). With a potential $30 million price tag for the 2024-25 season and Golden State looking to lower its tax bill, it was clear that CP3 was likely headed elsewhere.
Enter San Antonio, which had a more urgent need to improve its point guard rotation, especially with the rapid ascension of Victor Wembanyama. When a team that won 15 games has a young talent like Wemby, the “rebuilding” clock tends to get sped up. Last season was the first in which Paul finished outside the top 35 in fantasy value in his career, with the 2022-23 season in Phoenix (31st, according to Basketball Monster) being the previous low. Expecting Paul to easily crack the top 50 in fantasy value this season may be a bit much, given his age. However, moving back into a starting role while sharing the court with one of the sport’s emerging talents should benefit him (and the managers who select CP3 in drafts).
Mitchell Robinson (100)
Robinson’s issue last season was health, and that’s been the case for most of his NBA career. The Knicks center has surpassed 60 games played in three of his six seasons, and an ankle injury limited him to 31 in 2023-24. It’s fair to wonder if Robinson was fully healthy at the time of his return, especially when further issues during the postseason resulted in the 7-footer needing to undergo another ankle surgery in mid-May. At the time, it was reported that Robinson would be re-evaluated in 6-8 weeks, and the expectation is that he’ll be ready to go when the season begins.
When healthy, he’s one of the best offensive rebounders in the NBA and a capable rim protector. Robinson’s field goal percentage will be high since most of his shot attempts come in the restricted area. According to the NBA’s tracking data, 100% of Robinson’s field-goal attempts came from within 10 feet of the basket. What joins health concerns as a negative for fantasy managers is the foul shooting, which made Robinson a good option for those willing to punt that category. He made 40.9% of his attempts from the charity stripe last season and is shooting 51.8% for his career. That isn’t good. However, if Robinson can stay relatively healthy, the positives can outweigh the negatives in 2024-25.
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Terance Mann (141)
Even with his winning the right to begin last season as a starter, Mann wasn’t a player saddled with high fantasy expectations. He was still occupying a space between stars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and there was also the lingering possibility of the Clippers eventually acquiring James Harden. Harden would be traded to Los Angeles, and that trio made it incredibly difficult for Mann to exceed the expected late-round value. He didn’t even crack the top 200 in 9-cat formats despite starting 71 of the 75 games he played. Mann finished the regular season with averages of 8.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.6 steals, and 0.9 3-pointers in 25.0 minutes, shooting 51.5% from the field and 83.2% from the foul line.
Why should fantasy managers even entertain the possibility of Mann rebounding next season? George is gone, having agreed to a max deal with the 76ers. And then there’s Leonard’s health, which has remained difficult to truly predict. His time with USA Basketball was cut short, as the decision was made to replace him with Derrick White on the roster that went on to win gold in Paris. Leonard played 68 games last season, the most for him since his penultimate campaign in San Antonio (74 games in 2016-17). And that’s just the second time he’s appeared in at least 60 since then. Mann should again be a late-round pick, but the chances of him meeting (or even exceeding) that expectation in 2024-25 have increased.
Christian Braun (146)
Braun is in a similar position to Mann, although he was not on track to be a starter last season. Denver’s starting five remained intact after winning the franchise’s first NBA title, but the bench suffered significant losses, most notably Bruce Brown and Jeff Green. That opened the door for Braun to provide late-round value potentially, but he failed to do so. Posting averages of 7.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 0.8 3-pointers in 20.2 minutes, Braun finished his second NBA season ranked just inside the top 300 in 9-cat formats.
So, what’s changed? The Nuggets lost a starter, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who agreed to a three-year deal with the Magic this summer. Braun is projected to be the odds-on favorite to fill the void, even with second-year wing Julian Strawther going off in Las Vegas (in two games played) last month. CB is the better defender of the two, which may be what gives him the upper hand due to what the Nuggets lost in KCP.
A key for Braun in 2024-25 will be the 3-point shooting, as Caldwell-Pope averaged 1.6 makes while shooting 40.6% from beyond the arc. Playing off of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray as a starter should ensure Braun quality catch-and-shoot opportunities, and he could also benefit from the addition of the NBA’s all-time leader in triple-doubles (Russell Westbrook) depending on how Michael Malone sets up the rotation. If Braun can make the starting job his early in the preseason, that would give his draft value a welcome boost.
