Identifying value is essential to fantasy basketball drafts, but it’s an inexact science. With that in mind, the Rotoworld staff has identified a few of its “studs” and “duds” ahead of the 2024-25 season, predicting high- and low-value options projected to go in the early, middle, and late rounds of drafts. Next up is Zak Hanshew, who’s high on Phoenix’s newest addition and potential starting PG.
STUD: Trae Young
Some fantasy basketball enthusiasts - including my esteemed colleague Raphielle Johnson - are skeptical of Young’s outlook heading into the 2024-25 season. It’s understandable, considering Young’s high turnover rate and low FG%. Hey, nobody’s perfect, right? You’d be hard-pressed to find a high-usage guard with phenomenal efficiency and elite ball security. Despite two notable deficiencies, Young is excellent as a scorer and tremendous as a facilitator. He finished 36th in per-game value in 9-cat leagues but 14th in 8-cat leagues last season. For managers in 8-cat leagues punting FG%, Young was a top-10 option.
Since his rookie season in 2018-19, Young has increased his assists per game in five straight campaigns. Over the last two seasons, Young averaged a healthy 25.9 points, 10.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.7 triples while shooting 43% from the floor, 87.4% from the charity stripe, and committing 4.3 turnovers. Young produced at an elite level over those two seasons despite sharing the backcourt with Dejounte Murray, but Murray was traded to New Orleans in the offseason. Young’s 30.4 Usage Rate in 2023-24 was the lowest since his rookie campaign, and fantasy managers should expect that to tick up with Murray out the door. We project Young to lead the NBA in assists this season, and I expect him to finish as a top-10 player in 2024-25.
DUD: Joel Embiid
I’m not touching this dude with a 10-foot pole in 2024-25 fantasy basketball drafts. Early ADP data (via Hashtag Basketball) shows Embiid going on average at pick 8.2. For a guy perennially in the top 3 in per-game fantasy hoops value, his opening draft position reflects fantasy managers’ weariness. Embiid is a perennial per-game monster, but he’s also perennially injured, which is why I’m out on him.
The big man appeared in 68 games in 2022-23 and 66 games the season prior, but he logged only 39 games in 2023-24. Embiid’s per-game numbers were ridiculous, as he posted 34.7 points, 11 boards, 5.6 dimes, 1.2 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.4 triples. As good as those numbers were, managers who spent a top pick on Embiid couldn’t reap the benefits for most of the campaign. Philly brought in Andre Drummond to operate as a true backup big man and take some pressure off of Embiid, and the team brought in superstar Paul George to take off even more pressure. It wouldn’t be surprising if Philly consciously limited Embiid’s games for the upcoming season to ensure he won’t break down in the playoffs.
STUD: Jalen Johnson
Johnson was fantasy’s breakout darling of the 2023-24 campaign, finishing with career-high averages of 16 points, 8.7 boards, 3.6 dimes, 1.2 steals, 0.8 blocks, and 1.3 triples. He shot efficiently from the floor with a 51.1% mark and committed just 1.8 turnovers. The Duke product finished 48th in per-game fantasy value, but multiple injuries limited him to 56 appearances. He’s set to open the season as Atlanta’s starting PF, and our projections predict he’ll be even better in 2024-25, finishing as fantasy’s 40th-ranked player.
Johnson’s only real limitation is his lackluster FT%; otherwise, he can stuff the stat sheet any night. As a stretch four, Johnson can hit triples, rack up defensive stats, score, rebound, and facilitate, making him a Swiss army knife for fantasy managers.
DUD: Khris Middleton
Middleton hasn’t been the same over the last two seasons due to recurring injuries and procedures. In July, he underwent surgery on both ankles, marking the third straight offseason undergoing a procedure. In 2022, he had wrist surgery that cost him the first 20 games of the 2022-23 season, and he sprained his MCL in the 2023 playoffs, which prompted knee surgery. Middleton has played 88 games over the last two campaigns, and health concerns are at an all-time high for the 33-year-old.
Middleton is a critical player in Milwaukee’s rotation as a scorer, playmaker, and floor-spacer, and his per-game numbers have been respectable when on the court. Middleton has started slowly in the last two while slowly ramping up and finishing strong. He’s averaged 15.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and had 5.1 assists and 1.6 triples, and those numbers were good for a finish inside the top 90 in per-game fantasy value. We’re projecting Middleton to play 57 games in 2024-25, but that number could be less.
STUD: Tyus Jones
Jones went from Memphis, where he was the team’s top backup PG, to a starting gig in Washington, where he flourished. Jones enjoyed the best season of his career, putting up career highs across the board with 12 points, 2.7 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 1.6 triples while shooting 48.9/80 shooting splits and committing just one turnover per game.
Jones was solid for the entire 2024-25 campaign but was particularly effective over his final 14 games. Jones averaged 9.8 points, 2.4 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 1.6 triples, and 1.4 turnovers in that span. He most notably handed out 10.6 dimes in those games and dished at least 10 in seven. Devin Booker played great as Phoenix’s de facto PG last season, but Jones should step into the starting PG role for the Suns, where he’ll be set up for success immediately. Jones was an assist machine while playing for the last-place Wizards, and he should have no trouble increasing his assist total while feeding Phoenix’s big three of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Booker. Jones has a top-70 ceiling for the 2024-25 season.
DUD: Jerami Grant
Grant averaged 21.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 2.1 triples across 33.9 minutes per game in his second season with the Blazers. He logged only 54 games and has averaged just 54.5 games across his last four campaigns due to injuries and playing for bad teams. Grant posted three straight top-85 seasons before falling outside the top 100 in 2023-24. His blocks fell, and his turnovers increased, which were two big reasons for the decline in fantasy value.
Portland traded Malcolm Brogdon, the No. 14 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, and a 2029 pick for Deni Avdija in the offseason, and the former Wizard is expected to steal some minutes and counting stats from Grant. Grant led Portland in scoring last season, and he shot better than 40% from beyond the arc for the second straight season. Points and triples are his two best categories for fantasy managers, but if he’s not protecting the ball or getting close to a block per game, he won’t hope to crack the top 100. Shaedon Sharpe is expected to be healthy to open the season, Scoot Henderson is ascending, and Avdija is now in the mix. Grant’s role may be muted compared to what it’s been in previous seasons, making him a risky option in drafts with significant dud potential.
