In the 10 games since Paolo Banchero went down with a torn oblique, Franz Wagner is averaging 25.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.4 steals and 2.1 threes per game. Here are the players that have averaged those marks over the course of a full season:
James Harden (3x)
Luka Doncic (3x, including this season)
Russell Westbrook (MVP season)
Nikola Jokic (this season)
Jayson Tatum (this season)
It took him and the team a few games to adjust to life without Paolo, but it is clear that they’ve figured things out, which will make them even more dangerous by the time the playoffs come around. Orlando has now won six games in a row and have held their opponents to fewer than 100 points in all six games.
The defense has been elite, but the offense was a concern when it was announced that Banchero would be sidelined until at least early December. Clearly, responsibility was going to shift to Wagner. Can he play the role of a superstar? Or would the defensive attention be too much for him to handle?
It’s a small sample size, but Wagner has thrived with the opportunity to spread his wings and lead the team. Can he maintain this over the course of a full season? Perhaps not, but they don’t need him to. If he can keep the Magic afloat until Banchero returns, things will get easier for him. However, this is also a great chance for both him and the rest of his teammates to grow. Wagner is figuring out how to be a superstar in this league, and having that type of player next to Paolo is going to give the Magic a chance to make a run this season.
— Noah Rubin (@NoahRubin22) November 19, 2024
Shooting/scoring
Wagner is one of the best finishers in the league, but he actually hasn’t been quite as efficient in that area this season. He has shot 62.8% in the restricted area this year, which is actually down from 67.5% last season. Wagner has taken 6.3 shots per game in the restricted area, and the only non-centers that have shot a higher percentage and taken at least six shots per game in that zone are Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, LeBron James, Jeremy Sochan and Banchero. Even if he has been slightly worse this season, he’s still among the elite that the league has to offer.
— Noah Rubin (@NoahRubin22) November 19, 2024
Where he has improved this season is as a jump shooter. Wagner didn’t utilize the mid-range shot often last season. On mid-range shots from outside the paint, he made just 16 of his 47 attempts (34%). So far this season, he has shot 11-of-22 (50%) on mid-range jumpers. A player that has his bag of finishing tricks doesn’t need to shoot the in-between shot, but it just makes him even more dynamic as a scorer.
— Noah Rubin (@NoahRubin22) November 19, 2024
One issue that plagued Wagner last season was his 3-point shooting. He was an average deep-range shooter over his first two seasons, but his percentage dropped to 28.1% last year. So far this season, it is back up to 36%, which would be the best mark of his career. He has already hit 32 threes after hitting just 89 total last season. Wagner has been a true three-level scorer this season, and there’s no reason to think that will change when Banchero returns, even if his volume may take a hit.
— Noah Rubin (@NoahRubin22) November 19, 2024
Playmaking
Orlando is set up differently from most NBA teams. Even the ones that have an elite playmaking forward usually have a guard as the secondary playmaker. However, Wagner and Banchero were the team’s assist leaders last season, and that has held true so far this year. With Paolo out, Franz has taken on more responsibility initiating the offense and has had at least five assists in seven straight games.
— Noah Rubin (@NoahRubin22) November 19, 2024
Wagner’s numbers as the PnR ball handler aren’t outstanding, but he has a knack for it. He is patient when coming off screens and does a great job of sealing his defender on his back. That allows him to see the floor in front of him and make the best decision. He can go for a layup, a floater, dump it off to the roll man or hit an open shooter. He creates a numbers advantage by sealing his defender and opens up plenty of options to get Orlando good looks at the basket.
— Noah Rubin (@NoahRubin22) November 19, 2024
Defense
Wagner isn’t known for his defense, but he isn’t a traffic cone. He is more than capable of staying in front of players and uses his active hands to make plays. Franz does that whether he’s on or off the ball, but one of his best abilities is turning defense into easy offense. He does a great job of getting his hands into passing lanes, stripping the ball from offensive players and simply poking it out when they try to drive by him. Playing on an elite defensive team helps, but he’s still given tough assignments every night. To be getting it done on both ends is impressive.
— Noah Rubin (@NoahRubin22) November 19, 2024
Situation
Of course, Paolo’s absence is inflating Wagner’s numbers. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with that, and it shouldn’t be seen as a negative thing. Enjoy the production boost! However, recognizing that it is a real factor is important. Wagner is producing at a higher level than we should typically expect from him, but that doesn’t mean that his development isn’t real.
— Noah Rubin (@NoahRubin22) November 19, 2024
Orlando is in a great spot. They have a lot of young talent on their roster, and a lot of those players are developing. Jalen Suggs is a legit part of their future. Anthony Black is showing flashes. Tristan da Silva has been relied on to play big minutes. They also have some solid veterans like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jonathan Isaac playing big roles. Teams change quickly in the NBA, but one thing is for sure: a core of Banchero and Wagner will be leading the charge for the Magic for years to come as 1A and 1B on offense. They may cycle through the players around them, but this forward duo has the talent to rival the success of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in Boston. They made the playoffs in year two of Banchero’s career and should make some noise in the postseason in year three.
That’s a good thing for Franz. Even if he’s sharing a workload, he’ll continue to develop chemistry with Paolo, and they’ll both only get better. Despite not being the face of the franchise, Wagner is more than capable of providing top tier value moving forward.
Overall outlook
I had Wagner ranked 30th in my dynasty rankings that were part of our draft guide, and I think he’s only helped his rank with his early performance. This stretch as the focal point of the offense will benefit him long-term, and he should absolutely be considered for a spot in the All-Star Game if he keeps this up. The Magic have a special pairing in the frontcourt that will make this team a perennial contender.
There truly aren’t many players in the league that can match Wagner’s offensive versatility, and I hope I got that across. He tends to under the radar because of Banchero and the other talented players in his draft class, but he’s a true star. However good you think Franz is, trust me, he’s better.
Stats via NBA.com/stats
