One year after winning a national championship at Kansas, Christian Braun was drafted in the first round by Denver and added another ring to his collection. He showed flashes in a small role as a rookie, and with Bruce Brown gone, he had some expectations to step up in year two. However, Braun’s minutes only jumped from 15.5 to 20.2, and his numbers weren’t much better.
This past summer, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope signed a deal to head East to Orlando, opening the door for a new starter at shooting guard. The Nuggets opted against bringing in a new face and made it a position battle between Braun and Julian Strawther, a second-year guard that can space the floor well. With KCP gone, would Mike Malone value shooting in the starting lineup or a guy that can do a bit of everything else?
He went with Braun, and the early results have shown that it was the correct choice. He is averaging career-highs across the board with 16.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks and 1.7 threes in 35.3 minutes per game. The increase in volume hasn’t negatively impacted his efficiency. Braun is shooting 55.2% from the floor, 81.1% from the free throw line and 50% on 3-pointers, all of which are career-highs.
Denver is one game out of first place and has won five games in a row. Braun’s leap is a big reason why they’re still among the elite teams in the league despite not making many improvements to their roster during the offseason. But just how good is Braun, and how should dynasty managers value him?
Let’s get one thing straight: Nikola Jokic deserves a ton of credit for Braun’s statistical leap. Jokic is obviously one of the best playmakers in the league, and Braun’s playstyle is maximized by playing alongside him. They spend 34.4 minutes per game on the court together, which means that Braun has played about nine minutes through 10 games with Jokic on the bench.
— Noah Rubin (@NoahRubin22) November 11, 2024
This isn’t to discredit Braun, because he really is having an awesome season. The context is important for dynasty managers, since if he were to be traded tomorrow, his value would likely dip. That isn’t going to happen, but it alters how we should value him when looking ahead to the future. Of course, there is certainly a chance that this team continues to opt for continuity, and these two spend many years playing together. To a lesser extent, this is like the Warriors maximizing the careers of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green by having them all on the same team. All of them are Hall of Famers, but Thompson or Green may not have had the same success if they weren’t maximized in Golden State.
Shooting/scoring
Playing next to Jokic makes life easy, and it has shown in Braun’s numbers this season. His 2-point percentage has jumped from 49.8% last year to 57.7% this year, and his 3-point percentage has leaped from 38.4% to 50% on 3.4 attempts per game. Managers shouldn’t expect for him to continue to make half of his 3-point attempts, but he has improved in that area.
Braun isn’t much of a shot creator. 100% of his 3-pointers and 84.5% of his total makes this season. have been assisted. 26 of his 58 field goals made have come off of a Jokic dime. Just to be clear, 45% of Braun’s buckets have been set up by Jokic. Again, this isn’t to knock Braun, but it does show that this is an excellent fit.
— Noah Rubin (@NoahRubin22) November 11, 2024
His shot chart this season epitomizes what the modern NBA looks for in role players. He pretty much shoots only 3-pointers and layups. Just three of his shot attempts have been mid range shots from outside the paint. Braun knows what he’s good at and makes sure to make an impact there. He ranks in the 83rd percentile on spot up attempts, the 75th percentile in transition and the 91st percentile on cuts to the basket.
— Noah Rubin (@NoahRubin22) November 11, 2024
Braun is currently shooting 67.3% in the restricted area on 5.5 attempts per game. The only guard that is shooting a better percentage on at least five attempts per game is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is known as one of the best finishers in the game today. Braun’s attempts may be easier than the ones that SGA gets, but the effectiveness is worth noting.
Playmaking
Frankly, Braun’s game is predicated on him playing without the ball in his hands. He is more than capable of making some plays, but he’s best utilized by moving without the ball. He only averaged 2.8 assists per game in college, so the expectation was never for him to make a huge impact in that category. When playing alongside Jokic, Jamal Murray, Russell Westbrook and Aaron Gordon, there’s no reason for Braun to be the primary ball handler. He’ll get the occasional assist in transition or within the flow of the offense, but this is a weakness to his fantasy stat set.
— Noah Rubin (@NoahRubin22) November 11, 2024
On-ball defense
There are currently 14 players averaging at least 5.4 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 0.9 blocks per game. Just three of them are guards: SGA, James Harden and Braun. He’s not an elite defensive player, but he has taken on the toughest assignments every night, which has made his advanced defensive numbers look bad. In reality, he’s an agile defender that can stay in front of tough matchups and make plays with his active hands. His negative wingspan was certainly a question mark entering the draft, but his instincts are good enough for him to make plays.
— Noah Rubin (@NoahRubin22) November 11, 2024
Off-ball defense
Braun always has his head on a swivel. He times the ball well and seems to find himself in the right spot to make a play. That may seem like he lucks into defensive stats at times, which is partially true. However, it can mostly be attributed to simply being aware of his surroundings.
— Noah Rubin (@NoahRubin22) November 11, 2024
What Braun does best, whether he’s on or off the ball, is turn defense into easy offense. He pushes the ball in transition for easy layups after getting the ball, and when he isn’t involved in getting the stop, he leaks out quickly, knowing Jokic will find him for an easy two. Denver is 4th in league in fastbreak points per game (18.3), and Braun is currently 8th in the league in total fastbreak points with 48.
— Noah Rubin (@NoahRubin22) November 11, 2024
Situation
Perhaps I’ve harped on how Braun has benefitted from his situation enough already. They picked up his team option for next season, which means that if he doesn’t get a rookie extension by next year, he’ll enter restricted free agency in 2026. Basically, his play this season will be the freshest thing on the minds of the front office when they’re negotiating a new contract for him. This isn’t to say that he’s “having a contract year”, but the early results are indicative of a new contract coming his way next fall. Things change quickly in the NBA, but it appears that Braun is on track to share the court with Jokic until at least 2027, when the MVP will be able to decline his player option (if he wants) and enter unrestricted free agency.
Overall outlook
The best case scenario for Braun is that this season is enough to earn him a nice extension, and he continues to start alongside Jokic until the Joker rides off into the sunset. Braun is more than capable of being a fantasy stud in a different situation, but there simply isn’t a better scenario for him. He has been a fifth round producer in 9-cat leagues thus far, though managers shouldn’t expect him to continue to grow in that regard. He’s playing at a high level, and it’s difficult to imagine him producing significantly better value than what he has shown this season.
You can look at that in one of two ways. The first is that this is a perfect situation. He’s playing this well without hitting ridiculously tough or lucky shots. He’s simply getting open and making plays on both ends. Nothing crazy is happening, so this is sustainable production, even if the 3-point shooting takes a slight hit. The other side is that these shooting numbers are unsustainable, and he’s going to regress. Making 50% of your 3-point attempts after hitting 38.4% the year before isn’t going to stick, and the volume is low enough that it could change quickly. Not to take the easy way out, but I find myself in the middle. Braun is playing at an incredibly high level, and if you don’t believe that will continue, selling high isn’t a bad option. However, I don’t think this production is fluky or simply a result of more minutes. Braun has been legitimately good this season and will be a big reason for Denver’s continued success.
Stats via NBA.com/stats
