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At a glance:
Record: 36-46 (10th, East)
Offensive Rating: 116.4 (12th)
Defensive Rating: 118.4 (27th)
Net Rating: -2.0 (21st)
Pace: 100.84 (6th)
2024 Draft Picks: 1
Now three years removed from a run to the conference finals, the Hawks have been stuck in mediocrity since their miracle run. After three straight finishes in the Play-In, the Hawks failed to make it to the playoffs after losing to Chicago in the tournament. When they traded for Dejounte Murray two summers ago, the expectations were much higher than what they’ve produced the last two seasons. Trae Young missed a long period of time due to a pinky injury, but the team’s issues were clear before Young’s injury. Now, they enter a critical summer for the future of the team. It is unlikely that they run things back with DejounTrae in the backcourt, but which one will they trade? Who else will be traded? Regardless, it will be an active summer in the trade market for the Hawks.
It isn’t all bleak. Atlanta lucked out by leaping up to the first pick of the draft despite only having a 3% chance of winning the lottery. It is widely considered a “weaker class”, but they will be able to get their favorite prospect. There is also a chance that they use it as part of a trade package to bring in another star. They also have multiple young players to be excited about, with the most promising one being Jalen Johnson. Onyeka Okongwu, Kobe Bufkin and even AJ Griffin are also players that should either be part of the team’s future or enticing pieces of a trade package. Atlanta will have plenty of choices to make over the next two months, and the results will shape the future of the team.
Fantasy Standout: Dejounte Murray
Murray’s second season in Atlanta went well from a fantasy standpoint, as he set new career-highs for both points and 3-pointers per game. However, his best production came when Young was sidelined. During Trae’s 23-game absence, Murray averaged 24.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 9.2 assists, 1.9 steals and 3.4 triples per game. He was still a third-round value in 9-cat leagues over the course of the season, but he showcased that he can get back to elite production if he is in a situation where he is the primary playmaker. Given the recent trade rumors surrounding Atlanta’s backcourt, it appears that Dejounte will be the primary ball handler next season, where that is with the Hawks or with another team.
DEJOUNTE MURRAY CALLS GAME 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/ydfAiuppfq
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 29, 2024
Assuming either Murray or Young is traded, Dejounte will move up a tier or two in fantasy. He was a top-20 player in 9-cat leagues during Trae’s extended absence despite atrocious shooting splits. Whether he is playing with a healthy Hawks team or he is traded, Murray will have more talent around him next season than he did when Young, Okongwu, Saddiq Bey and Johnson were all sidelined. He won’t be forced to take as many tough shots, which will bring his percentages up, and he will still have the ball in his hands a lot. Murray was a top ten player during his final season in San Antonio, and while it is unlikely that he produces to that level next year, he should be better than he has been the past two seasons.
Fantasy Revelation: Jalen Johnson
After spending most of his first season in the G-League and his second year at the end of the bench, Johnson burst onto the scene quickly this year. His well-rounded production allowed him to provide fourth round value in 9-cat leagues, with averages of 16.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.3 triples while shooting 51.1% from the floor and 72.8% from the free throw line. He’s only 22 years old, and this was his first season seeing real NBA minutes. His upside is through the roof, and he is clearly going to be a massive part of the team’s future.
JALEN JOHNSON POSTER ON AUSTIN REAVES 😳 pic.twitter.com/TzAvapWhPG
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 19, 2024
When Atlanta brought in Dejounte Murray, it was to take some pressure off of Trae Young, who was eaten alive by Miami’s defense in the playoffs. Now, Johnson can be the secondary playmaker that can orchestrate the offense and push the ball in transition when team’s try to take Trae or Dejounte out of the game. Johnson’s development will allow Atlanta to have success offensively without fully relying on their star point guard, which gives them the flexibility to move off one of their backcourt stars this offseason. The high-flying dunks make Johnson a ton of fun to watch, but there is so much more to his game. He was a top-50 player in 9-cat leagues this season, and he should only be better next year.
Fantasy Disappointment: Onyeka Okongwu
It’s the same story every year: when Okongwu moves into the starting unit, he’s going to pop in fantasy. Unfortunately, that was delayed at least one more year, as Okongwu only saw eight starts this season. He was effective in those games and averaged 16.1 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.6 blocks, but he still finished outside the top-100 over the course of the season and only played in 55 games. Though that lined up with his Yahoo ADP of 107.7, the expectations for him were still high. Okongwu finished just outside the top-75 in 9-cat leagues the year before, so it was disappointing to see his production drop despite a bump in minutes.
Onyeka Okongwu has made at least one three-pointer in six consecutive games
— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) February 10, 2024
He’s 8/13 from distance over that span
Last season he stretched out to long midrange; now he’s taking it a step further #TrueToAtlanta pic.twitter.com/eQ5npu8s8n
It wasn’t a completely lost season, as Okongwu did show growth. He expanded his range outside the 3-point line and knocked down 23 triples over the course of the year after only hitting four through his first three seasons combined. He’s only 23 years old, and he has shown so much through his first four years in the league. He signed a four-year, $62 million deal last summer, which is a rather team-friendly contract. It’s all about opportunity at this point, and Atlanta winning the draft lottery certainly complicates things for OO. If the Hawks choose to draft Alexandre Sarr, Okongwu will either end up in another minutes split, or with a new squad.
Fantasy Recaps/Look-Aheads
Trae Young:
As expected, Young’s field goal percentage and turnovers were both atrocious. However, managers expected that when they drafted him. He was still able to put up elite points, assists and 3-pointers, and he was also able to provide value on the defensive end with his steals. Trae set new career-highs with 10.8 assists and 1.3 steals per game, which helped him provide third-round value in 9-cat leagues. His impact was far greater than that of a third-rounder, but the shooting percentage and turnover issues dragged his value down. In the scenario where Atlanta trades Dejounte Murray, Young could be in for the best season of his career as the primary ball handler in Quin Snyder’s offense. As long as managers have a team built to deal with his weaknesses, Young will continue to be an elite fantasy asset as he enters the prime of his career.
Trae Young said the rim is up there somewhere. What a shot. pic.twitter.com/3AseuTZPVT
— Steve Jones Jr. (@stevejones20) December 1, 2023
Bogdan Bogdanovic:
After a down year during the 2022-23 season, Bogi bounced back this year and set career-highs for points, steals and games played. This was the first time as a Hawk that he entered a season fully healthy, and it was evident in his play. Bogdanovic will be 32 years old before next season starts, so there isn’t really any room for him to grow at this point. However, there’s no reason to think that he will slow down either. Most of his value will come from beyond the arc, though he was able to average 1.2 steals per game last season. He should be able to replicate top-75 production, but he isn’t a player to target that early in drafts.
Bogdan Bogdanovic’s 10 three-pointers last night ties the Hawks franchise record for three-pointers in a single game pic.twitter.com/GgmWSkKDeP
— joe schmidt (@Joe_Schmidt07) December 12, 2023
Clint Capela:
Capela’s minutes continue to go down each year, which was a theme that continued this season. His field goal percentage also took a hit and dropped from 65.3% to 57.5%. Still, he was once again an excellent source of rebounds and blocks as he finished in the top-100 in 9-cat value once again. Capela will likely be a coveted trade asset this summer, and if he lands with a team that needs him to be their primary center, he should continue to be good for a double-double every night, along with 1-1.5 blocks and a high field goal percentage. In fantasy, he is excellent at traditional center stats, but that’s about it.
Saddiq Bey:
Bey opened the year as the starting power forward, but he quickly lost his job to Jalen Johnson. However, due to the plethora of injuries that the Hawks dealt with, Bey still ended up starting 51 games. Bey was able to average a career-high 6.5 rebounds per game, but his production was rather disappointing aside from that. He played an important role for the Hawks as a floor spacing forward, but that didn’t translate to fantasy success. It is also worth noting that Bey tore his ACL in March, which means that there is a good chance that he misses time to start the season. That means no training camp for him either, so don’t be surprised if Bey gets off to a really slow start when he finally does return to the lineup.
De’Andre Hunter:
Once again, Hunter was sidelined for a large portion of the season due to a knee injury. However, he was still solid in the 58 games that he played, and he set new career-highs for both points and 3-pointers per game. He still ranked outside the top-150, but he was better than he had been the two previous seasons. Hunter is an excellent defender, but that hasn’t translated to defensive production. Unless that happens, it is difficult to imagine Hunter having success in category leagues, though he is still a decent option in points formats.
Kobe Bufkin:
Atlanta selected Bufkin with the 15th pick in the draft last summer, and while he spent most of his time in College Park with their G-League affiliate, he did show some flashes in his 17 NBA appearances. The rookie out of Michigan should be an important part of Atlanta’s future, and he could be part of the team’s rotation as soon as next season. He averaged 4.8 points, 1.9 rebounds and 1.6 assists in 11.5 minutes per game this year, though his stats were much better when he was with the Skyhawks. In 14 G-League appearances, he averaged 23.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.3 steals and 2.6 triples per game. Managers shouldn’t expect him to get to that level of production anytime soon (if he ever does), but it does help show his upside.
Restricted Free Agents: Saddiq Bey, Vit Krejci, Seth Lundy, Dylan Windler
Unrestricted Free Agents: Trent Forrest, Wesley Matthews
