A Look Back at the Bruski 150

Long time no talk, folks. I hope you’re all enjoying the playoffs and how could you not now that we’re back to the Spurs and the Heat already punching it out. With all the time between the games it’s a perfect time to take a look back at the rankings, and while we’re at it I’ll break out a quick look at the Bruski 150 and how it did. As usual, these are roto ranks (the only way to play the game in my opinion) and I also organize the list by 8-cat, primarily, which along with roto is the only way to play (IMO). The ranks are cumulative, so games played is a factor just as it was when you set your lineup all year long. Here’s a big shout to the Basketball Monster guys for the data, and off we go….

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8-cat rank	Player	Games	ADP (8)	B150 (8-cat)	9-cat rank	ADP (9)	B150 (9-cat)
1	Durant, Kevin	81	1	1	1	1	1
2	Curry, Stephen	78	5	5	2	5	4
3	James, LeBron	77	2	2	3	2	2
4	Love, Kevin	77	7.5	9	4	7.5	8
5	Harden, James	73	3.5	3	8	3.5	5
6	Anthony, Carmelo	77	9	25	7	9	23
7	George, Paul	80	9.5	8	11	9.5	11
8	Wall, John	82	19	14	14	19	22
9	Nowitzki, Dirk	80	22	77	6	22	54
10	Davis, Anthony	67	18.5	7	5	18.5	7
11	Paul, Chris	62	4.5	4	10	4.5	3
12	Lowry, Kyle	79	81	62	12	81	76

Notes: Durant was a golden god and Curry showed what 78 games of fury looks like. LeBron fizzled as his blocks evaporated and Kevin Love shook off the injury risk. Harden’s late charge saved him from being a total loss, while fellow top-5 pick Chris Paul’s 62 games were a big loss for owners. Carmelo Anthony outperformed expectations and Paul George slid into his ADP for the most part. John Wall was a big win and Dirk was an even bigger win. Kyle Lowry came out of nowhere to carry teams to titles and Anthony Davis lived up to the hype, even though he missed 15 games.

8-cat rank	Player	Games	ADP (8)	B150 (8-cat)	9-cat rank	ADP (9)	B150 (9-cat)
13	Ibaka, Serge	81	16.5	6	9	16.5	6
14	Griffin, Blake	80	35	35	15	35	45
15	Noah, Joakim	80	31	80	13	31	63
16	Cousins, DeMarcus	71	38	22	28	38	30
17	Lillard, Damian	82	27	21	17	27	25
18	Dragic, Goran	76	66	41	25	66	69
19	Batum, Nicolas	82	20	18	24	20	15
20	Ellis, Monta	82	40	39	41	40	56
21	Millsap, Paul	74	48	20	21	48	13
22	Rubio, Ricky	82	24	19	33	24	29
23	Irving, Kyrie	71	7.5	11	30	7.5	14
24	Young, Thaddeus	79	57	33	26	57	19
25	Thomas, Isaiah	72	99	63	38	99	73
26	Jefferson, Al	73	17	56	16	17	35
27	Bosh, Chris	79	40	57	18	40	48
28	Ariza, Trevor	77	NR	179	22	NR	179
29	Jordan, DeAndre	82	122	79	20	82	63
30	Aldridge, LaMarcus	69	15	52	23	15	39
31	Drummond, Andre	81	68	49	19	44	40
32	Gay, Rudy	73	31	29	47	31	43
33	Hawes, Spencer	80	118	66	36	78	78
34	Hayward, Gordon	77	50	24	50	80	31
35	DeRozan, DeMar	79	96	91	42	96	98
36	Conley, Mike	73	35	13	37	35	12
37	Teague, Jeff	79	58	16	59	58	24
38	Duncan, Tim	74	38	59	40	38	46
39	Parsons, Chandler	74	71	71	35	71	67
40	Thompson, Klay	81	43	70	34	43	57
41	Gortat, Marcin	81	102	118	31	102	110
42	Matthews, Wesley	82	74	81	32	74	61
43	Lopez, Robin	82	127	97	27	127	91
44	Green, Gerald	82	NR	NR	44	NR	NR
45	Leonard, Kawhi	66	50	10	29	26	10
46	Meeks, Jodie	77	NR	NR	39	NR	NR
47	Walker, Kemba	73	42	23	54	42	21
48	Oladipo, Victor	80	55	30	101	95	66

Notes: Serge Ibaka beat his ADP but didn’t live up to my lofty 8-cat ranking, though he came close in 9-cat. Aside from Russell Westbrook’s injury healing up quickly, Scotty didn’t really care about structuring the offense in a way that used the unique big man’s skill-set. Blake Griffin improved his free throw shooting and it helped in a big way. Hopefully the low B150 rating on Kyrie Irving kept some folks away.

Paul Millsap and Thaddeus Young were big wins, while uber-consistent Mike Conley was a frustrating loss due to ankle issues. With third round value the controversial LaMarcus Aldridge and Al Jefferson rankings ended up being a wash. They didn’t live up to their draft day ADP and by that hopefully my rankings dissuaded folks from jumping on board, but they both managed to stay healthy and effective enough to put some heavy distance between their actual ranks and my ranks. Would I take the bet again? Yep. I’m borderline shocked that Al lasted as well as he did and Aldridge reversed some career trends and bucked efficiency norms (more shots without a drastic impact on FG%) as both guys operated at or around their ceilings.

Kawhi Leonard hurt, however, and though we saw what he was capable of with a blistering late-season run his missed games and lack of a solid start killed his rankings. Hopefully owners used his ADP as a guide and didn’t overpay for him. Other wins included Isaiah Thomas, Andre Drummond, Goran Dragic and Gordon Hayward, while Joakim Noah, Tim Duncan, and Chris Bosh were all losses – reminding folks that aging or injury-risk All Stars can often post solid returns. Klay Thompson and Chandler Parsons weren’t losses by the ADP, but I’m not sure that the ADP truly reflected where they were going in competitive leagues. I was happy with where Victor Oladipo landed in the 8-cat rankings after I had him so high.

8-cat rank	Player	Games	ADP (8)	B150 (8-cat)	9-cat rank	ADP (9)	B150 (9-cat)
49	Lawson, Ty	62	34	31	70	34	32
50	Carter-Williams, Michael	70	120	100	103	120	NR
51	West, David	80	61	87	46	61	86
52	Jennings, Brandon	80	41	84	91	41	88
53	Monroe, Greg	82	59	44	60	59	65
54	Korver, Kyle	71	115	90	43	115	60
55	Stephenson, Lance	78	140	102	89	140	114
56	Calderon, Jose	81	70	105	45	70	108
57	Foye, Randy	81	NR	NR	56	NR	NR
58	Favors, Derrick	73	60	26	51	30	27
59	Pierce, Paul	75	60	82	63	79	79
60	Lee, David	69	37	54	61	37	53
61	Jackson, Reggie	80	75	53	76	125	58
62	Faried, Kenneth	80	78	69	57	78	51
63	Morris, Markieff	81	125	124	67	125	137
64	Randolph, Zach	79	64	96	84	64	96
65	Brewer, Corey	81	152	122	53	152	123
66	Howard, Dwight	71	23	42	117	23	70
67	Williams, Deron	64	14	34	72	14	49
68	Smith, Josh	77	32	50	109	32	71
69	Knight, Brandon	72	100	88	105	100	138
70	Frye, Channing	82	NR	156	52	NR	-
71	Carroll, DeMarre	73	130	109	48	170	90
72	Chalmers, Mario	73	127	85	88	127	83
73	Collison, Darren	80	NR	NR	71	NR	NR
74	Johnson, Joe	79	100	148	68	100	142
75	Hibbert, Roy	81	44	32	79	44	36
76	Marion, Shawn	76	126	112	55	126	99
77	Green, Jeff	82	61	40	99	61	44
78	Crawford, Jamal	69	106	120	78	106	128
79	Johnson, Amir	77	92	73	69	92	50
80	Jones, Terrence	76	NR	196	104	NR	196
81	Dunleavy, Mike	82	NR	193	66	NR	193
82	Gibson, Taj	82	140	136	85	140	144
83	Tucker, PJ	81	NR	NR	62	NR	NR
84	Middleton, Khris	82	NR	NR	75	NR	NR
85	Bogut, Andrew	67	-	157	58	-	157
86	Westbrook, Russell	46	-	58	112	-	77
87	Gasol, Pau	60	40	61	86	40	62
88	Afflalo, Arron	73	127	132	96	127	132
89	Wade, Dwyane	54	18	60	102	18	68
90	Johnson, Wes	79	NR	NR	64	NR	NR
91	Beal, Bradley	73	40-65	37	87	40-65	34
92	Martin, Kevin	68	95	75	73	95	52
93	McRoberts, Josh	78	NR	167	65	NR	167
94	Ginobili, Manu	68	125	127	98	125	145
95	Butler, Jimmy	67	93	67	74	93	47
96	Valanciunas, Jonas	81	50-75	47	95	50-75	42

Notes: Kyle Korver and Lance Stephenson paid off well and were trailed in 8-cat by a pair of overachievers in Jose Calderon and waiver-wire wonder Randy Foye. Derrick Favors was a big loss for me and along with his teammate Enes Kanter I cost a lot of you some jack. I didn’t foresee a few things there, including the idea that Ty Corbin would be given so much rope to try and win games with Marvin Williams, and it’s unclear whether it was the chicken or the egg when it came to the youngsters’ lack of development. Kanter, in particular, looked terrible as his feet were rooted into the ground. Favors may have been playing injured. New coach Quin Snyder should be more willing to develop them with nowhere to go but up for all involved.

Reggie Jackson scared me all year but he scraped up against my 8-cat ranking, and it was funny to see everybody get all hot and bothered about Brooks moving him into the starting lineup during the playoffs. Common sense everybody! I’ve tired of this storyline about Brooks and his coaching, especially since the damage has been happening for four years, but it really can’t go away since the Thunder have the talent to expect championships and everybody is really confused about why they aren’t putting their best foot forward. The bar is so low here that Twitter barely makes a sound when Kendrick Perkins gets more run than Steven Adams against the Spurs, or the bench can’t perform because the veterans were developed all season in lieu of the raw, young and important guys.

Hopefully I scared some folks away from Deron Williams. Yeesh. Ditto Josh Smith. I was simply happy to have Channing Frye on the sheet and he quietly had a great, understated year (at least until the end). Mario Chalmers was another quiet win for me, while Joe Johnson finally got me after all these years of successfully fading him.

Speaking of fading, the Twitterati talk about Roy Hibbert’s defense is your echo-chamber event of the year and I wonder how long it will take folks to figure out that he’s closer to average than elite. I thought he’d take a step forward this season but his lack of athleticism made him a liability way too much. It’s hard to listen to talk about his prowess when teams regularly targeted him when on the floor. Teams stay away from top-tier defenders, and that’s really the bottom line. Folks really ought to reevaluate attaching opposing squads’ FG% at the rim solely to the big man. He’s surrounded by scores of athletic defenders and that’s probably where the disconnect is between perception and reality.

I’m kicking myself for not having Terrence Jones higher (within reason). I had him floating around the bottom of the 150 until I chickened out at the end. His D-League stats and other indicators wholly supported his relative breakout. Andrew Bogut destroyed me this year by being healthy, and then he destroyed fan-me by missing the NBA playoffs.

Russell Westbrook ended up being more trouble than he was worth, but I think he’s the No. 3 player in the NBA right now, so put that in your corn-cob pipe and smoke it. Dwyane Wade predictably fell like a rock. Neither Bradley Beal nor Jonas Valanciunas lived up to the hype. I saw the JV drop coming but didn’t have the stones to lower him, while the Beal situation deteriorated as his defense didn’t hold and his numbers didn’t take the leap that many hoped.

Another guy that didn’t take the leap was Jimmy Butler, who couldn’t break the Mendoza line from the field (39.7%) and in return his owners took a loss.

8-cat rank	Player	Games	ADP (8)	B150 (8-cat)	9-cat rank	ADP (9)	B150 (9-cat)
97	Evans, Tyreke	72	70	68	123	70	85
98	Carter, Vince	81	139	111	82	139	102
99	Vucevic, Nikola	57	39	38	81	39	26
100	Gasol, Marc	59	12	27	83	12	17
101	Lin, Jeremy	71	80	98	131	80	119
102	Hill, George	76	67	55	77	67	41
103	Smith, JR	74	80	126	92	80	121
104	Nelson, Jameer	68	100	123	129	100	139
105	Bass, Brandon	82	NR	190	90	NR	190
106	Parker, Tony	68	32	74	124	32	87
107	Turner, Evan	81	93	83	151	93	127
108	Belinelli, Marco	80	NR	192	93	NR	192
109	Augustin, DJ	71	NR	NR	115	NR	NR
110	Green, Draymond	82	NR	NR	94	NR	NR
111	Mozgov, Timofey	82	NR	NR	113	NR	NR
112	Mills, Patrick	81	NR	NR	80	NR	NR
113	Henson, John	70	130	115	114	130	124
114	Livingston, Shaun	76	NR	NR	111	NR	NR
115	Ross, Terrence	81	NR	NR	104	NR	NR
116	Sullinger, Jared	74	150	121	119	150	97
117	Iguodala, Andre	63	61	92	110	61	112
118	Green, Danny	68	90	48	97	90	28
119	Anderson, James	80	120	107	116	170	136
120	Boozer, Carlos	76	89	101	148	89	118
121	Dalembert, Samuel	80	150	110	106	110	104
122	Gordon, Eric	64	93	141	140	93	171
123	Diaw, Boris	79	NR	NR	128	NR	NR
124	Singler, Kyle	82	NR	NR	107	NR	NR
125	Plumlee, Miles	80	NR	187	120	NR	187
126	Varejao, Anderson	65	104	113	100	104	93
127	Burks, Alec	78	144	128	154	144	204
128	Blatche, Andray	73	NR	176	130	NR	176
129	Young, Nick	64	NR	173	122	NR	173
130	Lee, Courtney	79	NR	NR	108	NR	NR
131	Deng, Luol	63	70	93	138	70	95
132	Kanter, Enes	80	83	46	156	80	80
133	Sessions, Ramon	83	NR	193	163	NR	193
134	Thompson, Tristan	82	110	114	137	110	117
135	Morris, Marcus	82	NR	NR	127	NR	NR
136	Bledsoe, Eric	43	58	17	164	58	20
137	Jack, Jarrett	80	122	140	158	122	150
138	Burke, Trey	70	110	145	161	110	175
139	Aminu, Al-Farouq	80	NR	189	126	NR	189
140	Hinrich, Kirk	73	NR	NR	152	NR	NR
141	Henderson, Gerald	77	107	89	149	107	94
142	Felton, Raymond	65	100	129	162	100	141
143	Allen, Ray	73	NR	158	133	NR	158
144	Hill, Jordan	72	NR	NR	121	NR	NR
145	Crawford, Jordan	81	NR	164	167	NR	164
146	Jefferson, Richard	82	NR	NR	142	NR	NR
147	Pekovic, Nikola	54	69	108	134	69	105
148	Harris, Tobias	61	81	78	132	81	75
149	Waiters, Dion	70	115	104	185	115	132
150	Williams, Mo	74	NR	162	178	NR	162
151	Harkless, Maurice	80	115	106	141	115	93
152	Vasquez, Greivis	79	NR	160	170	NR	NR
153	Webster, Martell	78	NR	198	125	NR	198
154	Beverley, Patrick	56	119	43	136	119	37
155	Andersen, Chris	72	NR	NR	118	NR	NR
156	Chandler, Wilson	62	106	86	144	106	84
157	Barnes, Matt	63	140	103	147	140	92
158	Williams, Marvin	66	NR	NR	135	NR	NR
159	Bradley, Avery	60	NR	199	166	NR	199
160	Chandler, Tyson	55	82	95	145	82	82
161	Humphries, Kris	69	NR	NR	143	NR	NR
162	Shumpert, Iman	74	133	125	159	133	111
163	Stuckey, Rodney	73	140	143	192	180	153
164	Patterson, Patrick	65	188	134	150	188	107
165	Brand, Elton	73	NR	182	146	NR	182
166	Brooks, Aaron	72	NR	NR	188	NR	NR
167	Marshall, Kendall	54	NR	NR	214	NR	NR
168	O’Quinn, Kyle	69	NR	NR	160	NR	NR
169	Antetokounmpo, Giannis	77	NR	NR	193	NR	NR
170	Lamb, Jeremy	78	NR	NR	153	NR	NR
171	Cole, Norris	82	NR	NR	206	NR	NR
172	Roberts, Brian	72	NR	NR	172	NR	NR
173	Olynyk, Kelly	70	NR	165	183	NR	165
174	Wright, Brandan	58	NR	159	139	NR	NR
175	Hickson, JJ	69	120	138	210	120	131

Notes: Let’s not hide here, the Patrick Beverley thing blew up in my face. I can make excuses about the 55 games he played but the bottom line is that offensively he took backward steps within the system. An overreliance on 3-point shooting kept his field goal percentage down. He didn’t improve on his blocks despite nearly doubling his minutes, and his steals didn’t improve at the same per-minute rate, either (which isn’t terribly uncommon, but he could have done better).

Whether it was a lack of confidence with the ball, a single-minded focus on defense embraced by the player and encouraged by his coach, or teammates like James Harden and Dwight Howard pounding the air out of the ball – he went backward or held pat in enough statistical areas to flub my ranking. It’s also worth noting that the Rockets slowed their pace to accommodate for Howard’s postups, which improved as the year went on. Beverley probably gains up to 50 ranks by playing a full slate of games, but I was expecting the Rockets to run the ball more with PB-and-the-D wreaking havoc all over the place. He did wreak havoc, but nobody noticed it – not the DPOY voters and most certainly not your stat tracker.

Games played killed both Marc Gasol and Nikola Vucevic, and hopefully my lower ranking of Gasol helped keep you guys away. It will be easy to point to Gasol’s injury to explain his year away, but the regression in foul shooting stands out like a sore thumb and his activity numbers were on the decline the year before. I still like him as a player, obviously, but he strikes me as a guy that will really need to watch his weight this offseason.

I nearly shed a tear seeing where Eric Bledsoe landed, which owners shouldn’t get worked up about. Every year there is a younger, explosive player that gets the bad luck.

Check out Patty Mills eking out top 80-110 value on the year. In deeper leagues these nightly singles-hitters are cheap and a sneaky way to plug holes when you’re facing injury issues. Nikola Pekovic suffers from points-and-boards fatigue and eventually put a cherry on top by succumbing to injury issues.

As usual, the top 100-150 is a mish-mash of guys that accumulated low-end value and didn’t get hurt, and the only way to get utility out of them is to set-it and forget-it, which is something owners aren’t likely to do as they lean toward bigger names and also chase upside. Let this be a friendly reminder that these guys exist and they are what they are.

All in all I don’t know how the rankings stood up to the competition. I wasn’t all that happy, but part of this job is being extremely critical of the picks so maybe I did better than I thought. I took 1-of-2 National Fantasy Basketball Championship leagues, and the one I lost I had to autodraft my first four picks due to a family emergency (helloooooo Larry Sanders). I’m not going to be like some of those guys that only publicize the wins and never the losses (that would be “evil”). I got absolutely smoked in a ringer league this year. My first mistake was taking a chance on Kobe just hours before the first really bad report came out, and my second mistake was just about everything else. It happens to the best of us.

The good news is that I was able to dig into some very interesting trends and back into a handful of predictive formulas that have tested well so far. I am the proverbial team that didn’t make it all the way that spends the offseason grinding its teeth. That, of course, will make for a very interesting summer as we get ready to do it all over again.