Devin Booker was just too good for Summer League. We’ve also talked about him constantly on our podcast, so I thought it might be a good idea to dig in on one of the most impressive rookies last season.
There was really no need for Booker to play in Summer League with how he led the Suns in total points, assists and turnovers in the 2016 portion of last season. In an interview on ESPN, the Suns didn’t want him to play in the second game, but Booker wanted to get out there on national TV to show what he can do and lead the team.
Not surprisingly, he was outstanding in Las Vegas, averaging 26.0 points, 5.0 boards, 6.5 assists, 1.0 blocks, 3.5 turnovers and 3.0 treys. Booker had arguably the best quarter of the event with 18 points in the third quarter during his first outing. The Suns have been talking about his post-up game a ton, which was on display for the 19-year-old guard. That’s definitely going to be something to watch in camp, especially with Booker now listed at 6’7”. Basically, his awesome run this month was totally expected.
So, let’s think about what he’s looking at going forward and where he needs to improve. As much as we look at Booker’s 19.2 points per game after the break and think that’s awesome for fantasy, it actually wasn’t. He was only a 12th-round value for nine-category leagues on total value. A big reason was he made just 40.1 percent from the field on 17.0 attempts per game. In fantasy, that actually made him the third worst for total value in field goal percentage (Matt Barnes and Kobe Bryant). Yes, worse than Marcus Smart and Emmanuel Mudiay.
So where can he improve? Let’s take a look at his post-break shot chart first:
That’s pretty average, right? Well, it’s actually below average in every shot location except on his non-restricted paint shots. A big reason why it’s so underwhelming is he was unassisted on 56 percent of his post-break buckets. Unless you’re Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant or a superstar, you’re going to have a tough time hitting 45 percent from the field with that many unassisted buckets. For what it’s worth, his 86 percent from the free throw line and his 1.5 treys per game in this span helped him get to 50.6 true shooting percentage. That’ll work.
Digging a little deeper, how about his performance when he didn’t have to work hard? Here’s a look at his post-break closest defender stats on shots from at least 10 feet away:
Yeah, those tighter defender shots hurt him. Those shots accounted for 31.1 percent of his shot total, but he made just 28.4 percent of them. That’s a serious problem right there, but it’s also extremely rare for a rookie to get that kind of challenge.
What’s more, he wasn’t even really that great when he was open. Specifically on 3-pointers after the break, he only hit made 33.3 of his 105 attempts. He was also just 36.1 percent on catch-and-shoot treys, but he was awful on his pull-up triples at 20.3 percent.
OK, so as bad as this sounds, Booker is still only going to be 19 years old when the next season starts, so this shouldn’t be a doom and gloom moment. Before we look ahead, let’s just take a look at how well-rounded Booker’s game is:
I absolutely love these two blocks. First one is on Dion Waiters in the regular season and the second on R.J. Hunter in Las Vegas:
And how can we forget the LeBron staredown?
Moving on, let’s go over some quotes here. We have to start with general manager Ryan McDonough’s comments on his future star guard. He said he wants to see Booker improve on the defensive side of the ball and mentioned how he wants to add more to his game. After Las Vegas, McDonough said Booker has been improving as rapidly has anyone he’s ever seen. Another interesting point is Booker called McDonough about drafting players — Booker wanted fellow Kentucky guard Tyler Ulis, of course.
Coach Earl Watson was also on NBATV praising Booker for his passing along with the post-up game. Watson absolutely loves Booker and even called him ”the maestro of music” back in March. Although, Watson did know that Booker was pressing a bit last year and mentioned Brandon Knight returning would give Booker more breathing room.
Looking ahead, the first question that comes to mind would be how many minutes and does he start? Based on the lineup data from last year, you’d think he starts next to Eric Bledsoe. In 148 minutes last year, the Bledsoe-Booker combo posted a -3.4 net rating. The Booker-Knight combo was only a -12.3 on net rating in their 712 minutes. Furthermore, Knight without Bledsoe or Booker led to a net rating of -4.8 net rating — Knight had an overall net rating of -6.8 on the season. It seems like an obvious call.
So if he does start, what’s he looking at for minutes? Since there is talk of him getting some minutes at the three, let’s just say he’ll play five minutes there. Secondly, the Suns tried out T.J. Warren at the two a bit last year and it didn’t really work out. That would suggest he’ll only have to fight for minutes from Leandro Barbosa, which figures to be about 12 minutes. With Knight and Bledsoe both looking to take about 60-65 minutes out of the 96-minute allotment at the guard spots, that puts us at 24-29. Of course, Barbosa might fall out of the rotation to make sure Booker gets his 29-31 minutes. Basically, there shouldn’t be a big concern about the minutes for arguably the most untouchable Suns player.
A Bledsoe-Knight-Booker lineup would be foreign territory. For what it’s worth, Booker only shot the ball eight times in his 43 minutes in this lineup combo — 87.5 true shooting percentage, though! It goes without saying Booker didn’t really come out swinging until Bledsoe went down, so this is fairly moot.
As Watson said, Booker should have a lot more breathing room and open shots. Those contested shots should really drop, so he should see a noticeable increase in his efficiency. He should see close to a five-point bump in true shooting percentage and he could get closer to 45 percent from the field overall.
The other factor here would be a trade of Knight or Bledsoe. The Suns are going to see if they can make it work with three impact guards for now. Of course, Suns fans know this didn’t work out last time with Bledsoe, Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic. Still, with three potential impact players taken in the last two drafts, Booker, Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss, they might want to try to add another draft pick in a deeper draft for 2017.
The bottom line on Booker for fantasy is he’ll probably be a bit over-drafted. I love Booker long term, but it’s going to be hard to pick a guy before 100 in nine-category leagues. Shooting guard is always a tough position in fantasy, too. He’s definitely worthwhile in the middle rounds for points leagues and we’ll be talking about him a ton in DFS. I think he’s one year away from being a stud. For Dynasty, I love him as a potential early-round guy.
