At the end of Zion Williamson’s introductory press conference on Friday, he said that he likes to root for the bad guy in the movies sometimes. Gangster movie fans may remember Tony Montana from Scarface calling himself the bad guy, but Tony also said, “Fly pelican! Fly!” Well, that looks like what the Pelicans No. 1 pick will do this year.
Fantasy basketball and rookies tend not to mix, but there have been several instances when the stars align and a rookie can put up big numbers. It takes a combination of talent, health, and opportunity for a rookie to exceed a high ADP. It looks like Zion is heading to the highest ADP for a rookie in the history of fantasy hoops on the internet. So, is he going to be worth what could be a top-20 price tag in nine-category leagues? Let’s take a look.
He’s arguably the biggest stat-stuffing player we’ve ever seen, averaging 22.6 points, 8.9 boards, 2.1 dimes, 2.1 steals, 1.8 blocks, 2.4 turnovers and 0.7 treys in 30.0 minutes per game last season. Fantasy owners love volume, efficiency and especially defensive stats, and Zion is the only NCAA player since 1995 with at least 20 points, 1.5 blocks and 2.0 steals. He’s also the only player since at least 1993 with 20 points and at least a 70 TS%. Williamson’s 40.84 player efficiency rating (PER) is the highest in the Sports-Reference database (2009). He is also the only player to get drafted this decade to score 22-plus points with a sub-29 usage rate. Put all these rare feats together, and it’s easy to see why the bar is so high.
He is likely going to get a boost from his 30.0 minutes per game. Besides the obvious point of the NBA game having eight more minutes than NCAA games, Zion more than proved he is fully capable of playing heavy minutes. After his minor knee injury in February, Zion averaged 36.9 minutes per game over his final seven games at Duke, maintaining his 70 TS% while upping his points to 26.4 per game. Those games also came against better competition than he faced prior to injury. He should have a shot at 36 minutes, especially down the stretch.
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Zion’s offensive game is all about interior scoring with an absurd 72.0% of his shots coming at the rim. Even more impressive than that, Zion made 79.2% of those shots and he was only assisted 44.4% of the time overall for some Giannis Antetokounmpo-like productivity at the rim. He’s arguably just as strong as anyone in the NBA already, and he projects as someone who could be near 70% at the rim with a very, very high volume in the Pelicans style for possession. He can get to the basket a variety of ways and having more space with better facilitators could set him up with a litany of easy looks. Duke was also a horrendous 3-point shooting team, ranking just 339th in 3P% with middle-of-the-road volume from deep. More space should only help even in half court sets. Zion himself wasn’t a great 3-point shooter at 33.8%, but he did make 47.1% of his 153 two-point jumpers with only 18 makes of those coming off an assist. He might be able to push his range out a little more this summer, too.
Zion also has it all as a scorer. Perhaps nothing illustrated that more than his Synergy stats.
Stupid spot-up shots. The PNR ball-handler stats on 22 possessions indicates some untapped potential, and it’s fascinating that he was used as a roll man on just seven possessions. With how he can get off the floor, the lobs should be coming in bunches. The high-volume transition attempts should also have a seamless... transition. His 83.6% FG% on transition is better than Anthony Davis’ 83% in 2012, too.
Speaking of which, Zion should find himself in an optimal position for his skill set. During Zion’s Friday introductory press conference, coach Alvin Gentry and executive vice president David Griffin mentioned pace countless times with Griff summing it up best. “What we’ve done is we’ve put a lot of emphasis on finding people who can play defense like Zion loves to do, to play defense like Jrue loves to do, so then we get out in transition to take advantage of those gifts as opportunities to score,” Griffin said. The EVP also mentioned “Gentry’s system” numerous times, and Griff said he wants guys to “create and terminate plays.” That means Zion should have plenty of chances to put up more steals and blocks in a free-safety, roaming role. They clearly want Zion flying around on both ends and that style should create boundless fantasy goodies -- good news for Jrue and all the other Pelicans, too. Gentry also said Zion “more than fits in with the offense we want to run.” With all the transition chances, he might be a focal point on both ends.
To hammer it home even more, the Pelicans continue to improve their speed off a defensive rebound. They have increased their time per possession in every season under Gentry (12.8 seconds in 2015-16, 12.3, 11.2, 10.9 last year), and many times it was with larger personnel. Secondly, he will absolutely be playing at a faster pace than he did at Duke. The Blue Devils played at a 1.87 possessions per minute pace, which doesn’t touch the 2.17 possessions per minute the Pelicans put up last year. What’s more, Julius Randle’s pace was at 109.8 when he wasn’t next to Jahlil Okafor or Anthony Davis (104.4 with AD), so it’s not totally outlandish to think the Pels could get to 2.3 possessions per minute.
Besides the system, Zion himself should have a big piece of the pie in putting his fingerprints on this offense. Gentry told him that he wants the rookie to push the ball after his rebound, and to “rebound and run” as basically his credo. Gentry also said he wants Jrue Holiday to play off the ball and that Zion has a green light right away. “I’m gonna let him shoot a lot,” Gentry said.
At Duke, Zion had a 28.6 usage rate, putting him at a distant second behind RJ Barrett’s 32.2 -- Zion’s TS% was 17.0 higher, though. Williamson is unlikely to play next to a ball-hog teammate this year with the Pelicans losing their top usage rate guy in Anthony Davis (28.7) and second-ranked Julius Randle (27.2) almost a lock to leave, as well. Even Christian Wood was able to put up a 24.9 usage rate in his eight games with the Pelicans late in the season, so a 25 usage rate isn’t an unrealistic expectation at all for Zion. And by the way, Brandon Ingram only had a 22.6 usage rate while Lonzo Ball was at just 16.6. They shouldn’t suck out too many shots from the favorite for Rookie of the Year.
We don’t have much data on Zion’s speed and agility drills because there was no point in him going to the combine, but the Duke Basketball Twitter account tweeted that Zion set a record in max vert, and Duke alum Jay Bilas said that Zion out-jumped the measuring device that tops out at 45 inches. Plus, if you’ve seen him close out on guys, he’s not just a pure leaper like some of the lanky, string-bean style centers we’ve seen that put up 40-inch vert with weak lateral movement. He won’t be struggling with the NBA play types, tempo and switching.
Zion’s injury history also looks to be pretty clear. Yes, it took a busted Paul George signature shoe to keep Zion off the court last year. As violent as it looked, Zion only had a Grade 1 sprain, which is something guys often play through. He was held out for a few weeks as a precaution and played 36 minutes in his first game back. He did suffer a minor foot injury in 2017, but it was not serious. Williamson was also held out for a couple months in the summer while in high school for a minor bruised left knee injury, and he also had a minor thumb injury. Not bad at all for a guy that tried to end would-be rim protectors several times per game.
As mentioned above, Zion should have some freedom to handle the rock with Jrue and Lonzo Ball playing off the ball. Williamson was a point guard before he had a major growth spurt after his freshman year in high school, saying his back and knees hurt just because of him growing so fast. “Once the pain went away,” Williamson said in 2017, “I picked up all this newfound athleticism. I don’t know where it came from. I just accepted it. Now, I had my ball handling and size, and the power forwards and small forwards who tried to guard me, I could fly by them. It’s like a mismatch problem for me.” If you’ve seen Zion maneuver through traffic, you know he can handle the ball extremely well.
When Jrue does handle the rock, it should only help Zion with strong play. Anthony Davis saw a 4.6 TS% with Jrue compared to without him, and Julius Randle saw a 2.9 TS% boost with Jrue. They both also were much better at taking care of the ball with fewer turnovers per minute. The Pelicans do still have some cap space, so we’ll re-address how he’ll fit with his teammates a little more next month.
So with what could be 3-6 more minutes per game and possibly be a 33% increase in possessions per minute in an extremely favorable system, there’s a very good chance all those extra opportunities could offset the increase in talent of the NBA. Is Zion going to have a 70 TS% in the NBA? No, but 65 TS% is something he should be able to approach, especially with all of those easy dunks he’ll be getting in transition.
Zion’s fantasy value really comes down to his defensive output, but let’s look at some of the other factors first. For his offense, it’s fair to say he should be able to get to 17 points per game. Over the last four seasons, six rookies have scored 17 points per game (KAT, Okafor, Embiid, Mitchell, Luka, Young), and it’s possible he climbs even higher than 20 with the best FG% by far (KAT 54.2 FG%). On the glass, seven rookies in the last four years got to 7.5 boards, and many of them won’t see the amount of possessions Zion will see. Plus, Zion may have a shot at 2.0 dimes, too.
Based on the “create and terminate” up-tempo style, Zion should have a shot at 2.0 steals and 1.5 blocks -- more? If Zion can get 17 points, eight boards, two steals and 1.5 blocks, he’d be the first player to hit all of those marks since David Robinson in 1991-92. Sure, he’ll likely pull you down in FT% after making just 64.0% last season, but he figures to improve now that he doesn’t have to go to class, and he has a decent jumper anyway. Maybe 70-74% is doable.
A non-offensive comparison to what that kind of output Zion could yield is what Gerald Wallace did in the 2005-06 season. He’s the last player to hit the two-steal, 1.5-block threshold, averaging 15.2 points, 7.5 boards, 1.7 dimes, 2.5 steals, 2.1 blocks, 1.8 turnovers and 0.3 treys on a 54/28/61 shooting line over those 55 games. Even with Crash having the fifth-worst impact in FT% that year (Shaq, Ben Wallace, Dwight, Duncan), he still put up first-round value per game. If you punted properly, Crash Wallace was a top-four player (value info via Basketball Monster). Add a couple points per game at least, a hefty FG% boost, a little more from deep, and take a little away from defensive stats, you’ll have a top-five player.
Another major advantage Zion will have is not having to worry about rest as much as some of the other veterans. Kawhi Leonard said on ESPN that he wouldn’t have been in championship position without rest. “I don’t think I’d be playing right now if I would’ve tried to go through that season [without it],” Leonard said during the Finals. You can bet that rest is going to be en vogue this year.
OK, so where am I drafting Zion in nine-category re-draft leagues right now? It’s early and a lot will change, but I have him No. 12 behind James Harden, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis, Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokic, Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Paul George, Rudy Gobert, Andre Drummond and Jrue Holiday. As crazy as that sounds, there is just too much rest risk for me to pounce on Kawhi, Joel Embiid and LeBron James. Plus, I just don’t trust the front offices (or lack thereof) in Phoenix for Devin Booker and in DC for Bradley Beal. The Pelicans front office was beyond impressive this month and that clear direction should give fantasy owners confidence in drafting Pels.
This is going to be an epic offseason and it starts with what should be an epic season from the best rookie we’ve seen in quite some time. Zion might have a Saquon Barkley-like rookie season.
