The 2023-24 NBA preseason wraps up Friday. With the regular season just over the horizon, we’re taking some time to look back on the most notable performances of the past two weeks and what they mean for fantasy hoops managers. Raphielle Johnson, Noah Rubin and Zak Hanshew are here with preseason risers and fallers and their thoughts on how much stock should be put into preseason play.
Risers
Chet Holmgren
With Holmgren missing all of last season with a foot injury, there were some questions as to how he would look in game action. Well, he looked sharp during the preseason, including holding his own in a much-ballyhooed matchup with Victor Wembanyama. While Holmgren is on a team with multiple quality fantasy options (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Jalen Williams), his skill set is varied enough to be a very good player to have rostered this season. And I’m not on board with the idea that there’s a two-round gap between him and Wembanyama, even if the latter is on a roster that appears to be more “fantasy-friendly.” -Raph
P.J. Washington
After finishing in the top-100 last season, Washington’s role was expected to decrease with Miles Bridges back in Charlotte. That has resulted in his Yahoo ADP currently sitting at 129.2. However, after another warrant was put out for the arrest of Bridges, his chances of playing this season are in doubt. Washington’s ADP should start to rise based on the opportunity, though he also just had a 31-point game against the Thunder. His percentages are low, but he should be able to provide solid value in every other category. -Noah
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Victor Wembanyama
It’s wild to think that one of the most hyped prospects of all-time and a generational talent could actually boost his stock in the preseason, but that’s how well this man has played. Wemby has shown that he’s exactly who we thought he was. His court vision is phenomenal. He’s a world-class passer. He can close out a three-point shooter from the paint and swat the shot. He can rebound. He’s got elite handles. He can hit shots from nearly anywhere on the court. This guy is an alien in every sense of the word, and I often find myself considering him near the end of the second round in fantasy drafts. That’s how good Wemby is, and I can’t wait to see what the future holds for him. -Zak
— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) October 19, 2023
Tyrese Maxey
We all have high expectations for Maxey, so nothing has changed on that front. What has changed is James Harden ramping things up, not with his conditioning but rather his efforts to get out of Philadelphia. He’s reportedly been in Houston since Sunday, and it wouldn’t make sense for the 76ers to consider using him in a game. Maxey stands to benefit the most from Harden’s recent hijinks, especially with there being no real movement on the trade front. A player who was viewed as having the potential to approach top-50 value before training camp began, Maxey may have a top-50 floor when it’s all said and done. -Raph
Jonathan Kuminga
Kuminga has been on fire this preseason and has moved from a player that I might take in the last round to a player that I will definitely take in the last two rounds. He has averaged 24 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.5 triples per game, though he has had a much larger role with Draymond Green injured. I’m not going to reach for Kuminga, but he looks like he’s ready to break out. That is entirely dependent on what type of role he has when everyone is healthy. -Noah
Jonathan Kuminga in his 3 preseason games:
— Francesco Semprucci (@fra_sempru) October 16, 2023
24 pts, 8 rebs, 4 asts, 2 blks, 8/14 FG, 4/8 3P, 4/5 FT, 23 minutes
26 pts, 3 rebs, 3 asts, 2 stls, 9/12 FG, 3/5 3P, 5/7 FT, 27 minutes
28 pts, 6 rebs, 1 ast, 1 stl, 7/18 FG, 1/4 3P, 13/17 FT, 34 minutes pic.twitter.com/ppvAzaeVNc
Ben Simmons
Are we looking at a Most Improved Player candidate? Simmons has played well in the preseason, racking up counting stats with ease and showing why he was a mid-round fantasy pick in the not-too-distant past. A typical night for Simmons is a 7/8/7 line with two steals and two blocks while shooting 3-of-6 from the field (no three-pointers of course) and 1-of-2 from the charity stripe and committing four turnovers. He’s great for certain builds (Punt FT% for example), and he can provide plenty of value to your fantasy team, as long as you can learn to live with the warts. He looks like the Simmons of old, and that guy was absolutely useful in fantasy hoops. -Zak
Jeremy Sochan
After a summer in which many (myself included) viewed Keldon Johnson as the player most likely to move to the bench due to Victor Wembanyama’s arrival, Gregg Popovich announced on October 18 that he’s going with a big starting lineup. Sochan will serve as the starting point guard, with Tre Jones moving to the bench, and this boosts the second-year forward’s value considerably. Possessing a Yahoo ADP of 145.6 as of October 17, look for Sochan to move up draft boards in the days leading up to the start of the season. Look for Devin Vassell, the Spurs’ best fantasy option, to also receive a boost to his ADP. -Raph
Bilal Coulibaly
I didn’t initially expect the No. 7 pick to start for Washington, but he has had the starting role during the preseason. It actually makes a lot of sense, since they have enough offensive firepower in the starting unit and could use a boost defensively. Through three preseason appearances, Coulibaly already has 10 steals. The production in other categories will come and go, but there’s a chance that the rookie is among the league leaders in steals from day one. -Noah
Jordan Poole
I was bullish on him coming into the season and even predicted in our Hot Takes article that Poole would lead the Association in scoring. He casually dropped 41 points in just 27 minutes Wednesday against the Knicks, blinding Deni Avdija with the green light he’s been given to let ‘er rip. Seriously, Poole will be taking a ton of shots this season, and he’ll get a ton of value from points, triples and FT%. Finally out of Steph Curry’s shadow and out of Draymond Green’s swing radius, Poole should have more room to operate as a facilitator, which should boost his assist numbers as well. He’s got top-30 upside in 8-cat leagues. -Zak
Jordan Poole has 41 POINTS after 3 quarters!
— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) October 19, 2023
10/19 FG | 6/12 3PT | 15/16 FT pic.twitter.com/XyEOseUz6m
Fallers
Jaden Ivey
After starting 73 of the 74 games he appeared in as a rookie, Ivey appears poised to take on a reserve role under new Pistons coach Monty Williams. He hasn’t started any of the Pistons’ preseason games, with lottery pick (and better defender) Ausar Thompson slotting in alongside Cade Cunningham. While a move to the bench could get Ivey more opportunities to play with the ball in his hands, it should be noted that Killian Hayes also played well during the preseason. Ivey had a Yahoo ADP of 135.9 as of October 17, and that number stands to increase in the coming days. -Raph
Tre Jones
Well, the cat’s out of the bag now. Jeremy Sochan will be San Antonio’s starting point guard on opening night. While this doesn’t make Jones a player to drop, it certainly limits his upside. Jones will still be a solid source of assists and steals, and he should still see over 20 minutes per game. That should be enough for him to be worth rostering, and Gregg Popovich won’t shy away from changing up his starting unit throughout the season. Jones’ current ADP is 105.4, but he should probably be more of a round 10 or 11 target now. -Noah
Spurs starting lineup:
— Andrew Lopez (@_Andrew_Lopez) October 18, 2023
Jeremy Sochan
Devin Vassell
Keldon Johnson
Victor Wembanyama
Zach Collins
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Spurs starting lineup:
— Andrew Lopez (@_Andrew_Lopez) October 18, 2023
Jeremy Sochan
Devin Vassell
Keldon Johnson
Victor Wembanyama
Zach Collins
</a></p>— Andrew Lopez (@_Andrew_Lopez) <a href="
Pop says this will be the starting group heading into the season.
— Andrew Lopez (@_Andrew_Lopez) October 19, 2023
Says there’s still a lot the group has to learn. https://t.co/jMzKDCBfGM
Yikes, that escalated quickly! By all accounts, Jeremy Sochan will be the Spurs’ starting PG to open the season, leaving Jones to fight for minutes off the bench. Tre-Jay finished just inside the top-100 in per-game fantasy value last season, but it took the best statistical season of his career and a career-high 29.2 minutes per contest. Jones isn’t a particularly effective scorer, rebounder or three-point shooter, and the bulk of his value came from assists and steals in 2022-23. As the backup PG, his assists will likely wane, which drops his value precipitously. I don’t have much interest in him for this season. -Zak
James Harden
Yeah. We’ve apparently reached the “distraction” portion of Harden’s offseason, as he’s looking to apply pressure to the 76ers to trade him to the Clippers. It’s unknown when (or if) he’ll rejoin the team if a trade isn’t consummated, and why would Philadelphia want to have a known distraction around when they’re trying to contend in the East? And with the Clippers reportedly unwilling to part with Terance Mann to make a deal happen, it appears Harden has misjudged his leverage. Should fantasy managers even select him in the third round given what’s happened this week? That’s a wild question to ask of Harden given his career achievements. -Raph
Early on in mock drafts, Harden was still being drafted in the second round. His Yahoo ADP has slipped to 29.4, but at this point, it probably needs to be lower. Whenever he gets back on the court, he’ll provide significantly better value than what his ADP indicates. However, that feels like more and more of an unknown every day. There’s a real possibility that Harden is in Philadelphia until the trade deadline, and if you spend a third-round pick on him, your season may be over before you can even put him in your lineup. Proceed with caution and keep your fingers crossed for a trade if you decide to draft him. -Noah
James Harden did not attend 76ers practice today and is away due to a personal matter.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) October 19, 2023
Not exactly a hot take here, but Harden is not a guy I’ll be drafting on any of my fantasy teams this season. There’s no telling when he’ll play this season, but it’s become clear from his words and continued absence from team activities that he’s not going to be a 76er when he finally returns. It may be tempting to grab him in the third round due to the first-round ceiling, but the ambiguity surrounding his availability makes him too difficult to trust, even if you feel like you’re getting a discount. -Zak
Jonas Valanciunas
Valanciunas struggled defensively down the stretch last season, so much so that Larry Nance’s minutes as the backup center were increased. Nance hasn’t been available during the preseason due to an ankle injury, and it’s unknown if he’ll be cleared in time for Opening Night. But the Pelicans have been able to use Zion Williamson at the five at times, and that’s a look we could see more of when the games actually count. With Valanciunas also being the subject of trade rumors this summer, it feels likely that his minutes will decrease, especially if Zion can remain healthy. -Raph
Kyrie Irving/Luka Doncic
It isn’t time to sound the alarms, but the preseason injuries to Luka and Kyrie are noteworthy. Luka was awesome in his first two preseason appearances but was limited to just five minutes against Real Madrid due to a calf injury. On the other hand, Kyrie struggled in his lone preseason game and hasn’t played since due to a groin injury. In Yahoo leagues, Luka’s ADP is 2.6, and Kyrie’s is 12.6. There hasn’t been much clarity surrounding the injuries, and it wouldn’t be shocking if both players missed opening night. They shouldn’t drop down the rankings dramatically, but letting them slip a few spots isn’t the worst idea. -Noah
How much stock do you put into the preseason?
For me personally, the emphasis should be placed more on the role than the production in most cases. What role will a player have within a team’s rotation, and how well does said role fit his skill set? For example, even if Jordan Poole struggled to knock down shots during the preseason, we know his role with the Wizards will be better for him regarding individual production than his role with the Warriors had he remained there. A player putting up quality numbers during the preseason is great, but that can be fool’s gold, as rotations look nothing like they do when the games actually matter. -Raph
When I’m looking at preseason production, I’m looking more at why something is happening than what is happening. Sure, you should do that during the regular season as well, but it is even more vital during the preseason. What lineups are coaches experimenting with? Is a player only playing well because someone in front of him is injured? Will he have that same role during the regular season?
Here are a few examples and whether or not they are legit:
Bilal Coulibaly starting in Washington: LEGIT
Payton Pritchard averaging 18.8 points per game: NOT LEGIT
Coulibaly has started with everyone healthy in Washington, so it should continue during the regular season. Pritchard saw a larger role with Boston resting their top six players, and while he is certainly capable of production, he won’t have a large enough role during the regular season to be worth a roster spot. -Noah
The preseason isn’t everything, but it’s certainly something. Preseason play often sets us up to reinforce existing beliefs. “Payton Pritchard will be a microwave scorer off the bench with a strong and well-defined role for Boston.” He goes off, and you cling to your belief. This is also true for players performing poorly. The most important exercise we can perform in the playoffs is watching the games with an open and objective mind so that you’re absorbing and analyzing the facts and not just the performances that fit your narrative. -Zak
