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Which pitchers could have an innings limit?

Dodgers' Ryan offers 'all kinds of projection'
Debuting in the Los Angeles Dodgers' rotation after the All-Star Break, River Ryan is someone whose strikeout stuff and projection gives him some solid upside in fantasy baseball.

“Innings Limit” are dirty words for fantasy baseball managers. Too often teams are not clear or specific enough about where they are capping their pitchers’ workloads. Of course, that isn’t necessarily their fault. Many of them don’t exactly know when to shut someone down and there are plenty of factors at play in making that decision.

Here is a list of all the pitchers potentially facing an innings limit, where they stand right now, and what may play into their team’s decision to restrict their workload.

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Who Could Face An Innings Limit in the Second Half?

Paul Skenes, Pirates
2024: 97 1/3 Innings Pitched
2023: 129 1/3 IP
2022: 85 2/3 IP

There have been murmurs of Skenes operating under an innings limit of around 150-160 IP this season which would make sense given his workload across the last two years.

With 66 games left on their schedule, the Pirates have about 13 more revolutions through a five-man rotation the rest of the way. Skenes would blow through the 55-65 IP he theoretically has left with an average of six innings per start.

Of course, things can change. Perhaps the Pirates loosen their plan with Skenes with a playoff berth within reach. Or they transition to a six-man rotation with the emergence of Luis L. Ortiz.

Bottom line, right now Skenes is too good to take out of this rotation if the Pirates want to make the playoffs. They may skip him here and there or hold him to five innings per start, but he’ll likely be out there if the Pirates are alive. If they fall out of it, there’s a much greater likelihood of Skenes being shut down early. All Skenes fantasy managers should be big Pirates fans this summer.

Tarik Skubal, Tigers
2024: 117 Innings Pitched
2023: 95 IP
2022: 117 2/3 IP

The Tigers have given no public indication that Skubal is on an innings limit, but he hasn’t exceeded 120 IP since 2021 and has had a bevy of injuries since then. So, it would make sense if he’s shut down before the 194 IP he’s currently on pace for. It makes more sense with the Tigers seven games out of a playoff spot even after an 8-2 run before the All-Star Break.

Again, the Tigers have not publicly commented on Skubal being eventually shut down nor made an indication that they plan to. In fact, his name has surfaced in trade rumors recently and him heading to either Baltimore or Los Angeles would neutralize any threat of a shut down.

He’s currently the odds on favorite to win the AL Cy Young and is putting together an incredible season. Those three year inning totals would indicate it’s possible though if he stays with the Tigers through the trade deadline.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox
2024: 108 1/3 Innings Pitched
2023: 25 IP
2022: 0 IP

If not for Skubal, then Crochet would be the AL Cy Young favorite. He has the best K-BB% in all of baseball by a few percentage points and has been dominant in his first full season as a starter.

Yet, he’s already thrown for more than four times as many innings this season as he did in the last two years combined as he dealt with various elbow and shoulder injuries. The White Sox finally began to limit his workload just before the break by pulling him after two perfect innings last Friday. He reportedly won’t start until their fifth game after the break either.

They’re also reportedly open to trading Crochet. Whoever acquires him likely would be doing so to push for the playoffs, not shut him down. Wherever he may wind up would add innings to his rest of season projection compared to staying on the White Sox.

Cole Ragans, Royals
2024: 117 2/3 Innings Pitched
2023: 124 1/3 IP
2022: 134 2/3 IP

Ragans is another pitcher whose team has given no indication of an innings limit, but there’s some writing on the wall. He’s on pace for 196 IP after never throwing more than 135 in a single season. It’s unlikely the Royals push him all the way there, but they are in the thick of their first playoff race in years and need Ragans to get over the line.

It’s not a one to one comparison, but the Royals allowed Alec Marsh to work up to 124 1/3 IP across all levels in 2022 after a stress fracture in his humerus held him to just 25 1/3 IP in 2021.

They seem to be the type of organization that will let Ragans pitch as long as he feels good. Maybe there’s a few starts skipped or shortened to keep him around 175 IP when it’s all said and done.

Samulski: Midseason Top 100 SPs

Luis Gil, Yankees
2024: 102 1/3 Innings Pitched
2023: 4 IP
2022: 25 2/3 IP

It would not be surprising if Gil was starting to feel fatigue. He totaled fewer than 30 IP over the past two seasons while working his way back from Tommy John surgery and has been far less effective of late.

He was one of the best pitchers in baseball through April and May before scuffling in June. His K% fell from over 30% to barely 20% while his ERA rose sharply.

He bounced back just before the break with 16 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings with two earned runs. His velocity and pitch movement have also stayed relatively level, but his command has teetered which indicates he could be dealing with some very expected fatigue.

The Yankees also have the means to give Gil a breather at some point this season. Gerrit Cole is back, the rest of their rotation is made up of (struggling) veterans, Clarke Schmidt is due back from injury, and they will be active in the trade market.

Ronel Blanco, Astros
2024: 109 Innings Pitched
2023: 134 1/3 IP
2022: 71 2/3 IP

Blanco has been a workhorse through the first half. He leads the Astros in innings pitched and quality starts and is on pace for 184 IP in his first full season as a big leaguer. He’ll also be 31-years-old by the time the season ends.

Justin Verlander will be due back soon taking a rotation spot, but Blanco is closer to the Astros’ ace right now than their rotation bubble. They need Blanco’s innings and he threw plenty of them last season. They will likely push him as they chase a playoff spot.

Reynaldo López, Braves
2024: 90 Innings Pitched
2023: 66 IP
2022: 65 1/3 IP

López is a strange case because he’s worked mostly in relief over the last few seasons and hasn’t topped 100 IP since 2019. However, he threw over 180 IP back-to-back seasons in 2018 and 2019 so there’s a precedent for him as a workhorse.

Also, his velocity has been stable all season and even ticked up recently as the weather has warmed.

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The Braves have little starting pitcher depth so there’s a very good chance they keep pushing López on their way to the playoffs. There’s more concern in general skills regression than his innings being limited.

Jordan Hicks, Giants
2024: 95 Innings Pitched
2023: 65 2/3 IP
2022: 66 2/3 IP

Similar to López, Hicks has done well in his transition to starting. Unlike López, he limped into the All-Star break. Hicks has a 5.97 ERA in 31 2/3 IP since the start of June with a 20.5 K% and 11.3 BB%. He hasn’t completed six innings since April 27th and his velocity has been all over the place.

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The Giants’ rotation has plenty of reinforcements on the way with Robbie Ray, Alex Cobb, and Keaton Winn all on their way back from various injuries. The Giants have been known to get weird with their rotation and deploy pitchers in unconventional ways. So, it would make sense for them to push Hicks into some type of piggyback role to curb his workload and let him rediscover his effectiveness.

Kyle Harrison, Giants
2024: 86 Innings Pitched
2023: 102 1/3 IP
2022: 113 IP

Harrison probably has a soft innings limit with 86 IP in the first half after tossing over just over 100 IP in consecutive seasons. He’s on pace for about 144 IP right now as the Giants have 65 games or 13 more revolutions of a five-man rotation left on their schedule.

Again, with Ray, Cobb, and Winn coming back the Giants will have opportunities to limit Harrison’s workload if they feel the need to. He also just missed about a month with a sprained ankle which may have inadvertently set him up to pitch the rest of the season without any restrictions.

Christian Scott, Mets
2024: 85 2/3 Innings Pitched
2023: 87 2/3 IP
2022: 58 2/3 IP

The Mets have been… awkward in their handling of Scott this season.

First, he came up and pitched well in May. Then, was then sent down to reportedly manage his workload. He was held to around 70 pitches in each of his AAA starts before being recalled, but was pushed all the way to 99 pitches in his first start back.

Then, he was pulled in the middle of the sixth inning with 77 pitches in a game he was cruising through and of course the Mets’ bullpen promptly imploded. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Scott was pulled because he was on a strict 75 pitch limit after the game.

A report has also trickled out that Scott was feared to be dealing with a serious elbow injury towards the end of last season. Scott did mysteriously miss a month last August and September with an injury that was never disclosed and nothing about an arm injury was ever corroborated by the team. He only threw 4 2/3 innings of two appearances after returning.

Kodai Senga is due back soon and the Mets have already announced they will move to a six-man rotation when he does. That will spread out the rest of Scott’s starts and allow him to pitch most of the way through the season in five or six inning increments. Just keep an eye on his approach against lefties, an area where he’s struggled as a rookie.

Spencer Schwellenbach, Braves
2024: 99 2/3 Innings Pitched
2023: 65 IP
2022: 0 IP

Schwellenbach was a college shortstop and closer who the Braves drafted knowing he needed Tommy John surgery. He then sat out all of 2022, parts of 2023, and started 2024 at A+ before finding his way to the big leagues. In total, he made just 24 starts since 2019 before reaching the majors.

This is a situation where it’s probably not in Schwellenbach’s best interest to pitch all the way to the 170 IP total innings he’s on pace for, but the Braves rotation has been ravaged by injuries and he’s likely better than their depth options like Bryce Elder, Dylan Dodd, and Ian Anderson. AJ Smith-Shawver is back too and could challenge for a spot.

Ryan Pepiot, Rays
2024: 87 1/3 Innings Pitched
2023: 64 2/3 IP
2022: 127 2/3 IP

There’s less concern with Pepiot’s workload as he topped 100 IP in both 2021 and 2022, but an oblique injury last spring held him out of game action until July and held him under 70 IP for the season.

The Rays appear to be sellers, already sending Aaron Civale and Phil Maton packing despite being .500 at the All-Star break. He’s on pace for 144 IP and that should be about where we can expect him to wind up.