Washington Nationals
2024 record: 71-91
Fourth place, NL East
Team ERA: 4.30 (23rd in MLB)
Team OPS: .684 (25th in MLB)
What Went Right
The overall record is pretty ugly, but the Nationals were better than that mark for much of the season. In fact, Washington was not far behind the Wild Card leaders for much of the summer, and much of that credit goes to Davey Martinez, who should be back for his eighth season as skipper. The team was led in bWAR (Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement) by CJ Abrams, and while there was some controversy to the end of his season, he finished with 20 homers and 31 stolen bases as a 23-year-old. After being promoted from Triple-A, James Wood ranked second behind Jesse Winker in OPS+ (122) after slashing .265/.354/.427 and showing the talent that could make him among the best fantasy outfielders in the sport in the coming years. That along with contributions from players under 27 like Luis Garcia Jr. (.282, 18 HR, 70 RBI), Jacob Young (33 stolen bases) and Juan Yepez (.283/.335/.429) make this one of the more intriguing young lineups in baseball.
There was some good from the pitching as well. MacKenzie Gore struck out 181 hitters in his 166 1/3 innings and flashed the stuff to be a top-of-the-rotation starter someday. Trevor Williams saw his year limited to just 13 starts, but they couldn’t have gone much better with a 2.03 ERA and 1.03 WHIP even with his injury. Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz entered the year with zero fanfare, but combined for 48 starts, 239 2/3 innings and 239 strikeouts. They were nowhere near as good as the top three teams in the division, but the young talent for the Nationals makes them a team that could be dangerous in a year or two.
What Went Wrong
But it ain’t now. The Nationals wisely decided not to hold onto older veterans at the deadline, and they went 36-54 over their final 90 games after trading players like Lane Thomas, Jesse Winker, Hunter Harvey and Dylan Floro. They received very little offensive production at a few positions; in particular the corner infield where Joey Gallo was hurt and bad, and Trey Lipscomb was just the latter. Keibert Ruiz regressed significantly; seeing his OPS drop by nearly 100 points from .717 to .619. Even with impressive showings from their young (potential) stars, this was still among the worst offenses in baseball.
And the pitching wasn’t any better. Josiah Gray was limited to just two starts before suffering an elbow injury, and he likely will miss the majority of the 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. Patrick Corbin allows the most hits and runs of any starter in baseball, and it could be argued that he had the least team-friendly contract in baseball in 2025 based on his $35 million-plus salary and 5.62 ERA. Jake Irvin was shaky at best in his 33 outings with a 4.41 ERA over 187 2/3 frames, and the bullpen wasn’t nearly good enough to make up for the mediocre starters. Again, there’s individual pieces to like with the Nationals. The overall product needs a lot of work.
Fantasy Slants
- Let’s assume that Abrams won’t deal with any further punishment for his decision to spend a night out at a casino in the Chicago area near the end of the season. If that’s the case, there’s a lot to like, and there’s a lot to give fantasy managers pause before calling him the next superstar at the shortstop position. The speed is obvious, and there are several categories that Abrams ranks above-average in like hard-hit percentage, expected slugging, expected batting average and expected weighted on-base average. Above-average is good, but he’s not in the 70th percentile or better according to Baseball Savant in anything outside of speed, and his approach at the plate still leaves a lot to be desired. The potential to hit 25-plus homers and steal 50-plus bases is obviously intriguing, but there are shortstops with a similar ceiling and a higher floor.
- Garcia Jr. was one of the more consistent options at the second base position in 2024, and it’s worth noting that the left-handed hitting infielder doesn’t turn 25 until the middle of May. He struck out in just 16.3 percent of his at-bats, and that along with a solid 41.7 percent hard hit percentage allowed him to post an expected batting average of .280 with an also strong .460 expected slugging mark. It seems like this is as good as Garcia Jr. is going to get despite his young age, but this was a player who ranked 103rd in Yahoo among all hitters in baseball in 2024. You should consider drafting him in that range next spring.
- With all due respect to Abrams and Garcia Jr. -- and even acknowledging the positional value -- the player with the most fantasy upside is Wood, and what he showed as a rookie would probably be talked about more if not for the incredible first-year class in the National League. Had he qualified, this is a hitter who would rank among the very best in baseball in average exit velocity (92.8 mph), hard hit percentage (52), chase rate (21 percent) and walk percentage (11.6), and the only concern here is whether he can keep the strikeout rate to a low roar with 28.9 percent of his at-bats ending in punchouts in 2024. There’s no reason to think Wood won’t be an everyday player for Washington next year, and plenty of reason to think he can be a fantasy superstar as soon as 2025 as well.
- Wood won’t be the only young player in the outfield with loads of fantasy upside, either. Dylan Crews was the second-overall pick of the 2023 draft, and one of a few players from that class that was able to reach the majors just a season later. He showed elite wheels with a sprint speed in the 93rd percentile, and he was able to square up the baseball 30.5 percent of the time; a number that would be well above-average had he qualified. There’s the obvious risk that comes with a player of his age and lack of experience, but he’ll start 2025 as the top fantasy prospect on my board.
- Kyle Finnegan finished the year with 38 saves as the full-time closer for the Nationals, and he likely will have the same role if he’s still in a Washington uniform for 2025. There are certainly worse options, but keep in mind this was a hurler who had a so-so 8.5 K/9 and walked 3.4 batters per nine innings, making him a better “real-life” closer than a fantasy one. If Finnegan was to be moved, Washington could turn to an arm like Derek Law or Robert Garcia; with Garcia particularly interesting as a pitcher who struck out 75 batters in his 59 1/3 innings.
Key Free Agents
Patrick Corbin, Trevor Williams, Joey Gallo
Team Needs
With Corbin assuredly gone and Williams hitting the free-agent market as well, the Nationals will need to bring in a starter or two. Brady House came into 2024 as one of the better prospects at the third base position, but he’s not likely to be ready so the hot-corner will be a place they can improve on quite easily. The outfield seems set with Crews, Young and Wood; and the middle infield is one of the better young duos in baseball with Abrams and Garcia Jr. locked in. If the Nationals were to be aggressive -- aggressive is an understatement -- it’s possible that you could see a turn around akin to what the Royals had in 2024. It’s more reasonable to expect marginal stopgaps for the Nats in 2025, with a chance to do real damage in the NL East in the 2026 season and beyond.