Tampa Bay Rays
2024 record: 80-82
Fourth place, AL East
Team ERA: 3.78 (9th in MLB)
Team OPS: .669 (29th in MLB)
What Went Right
As we’ve come to expect, the Rays pitching staff was solid, ranking 9th in overall ERA and 10th in bullpen ERA. Their rotation ranked 5th in baseball in K-BB%, 6th in SIERA, and 7th in WHIP. However, only Zack Littell threw over 140 innings to be a qualified starter, so that’s likely why not many of the starting pitchers show up on leaderboards. Littell also posted the second-lowest ERA on the team with a 3.63 mark; although, his 1.25 WHIP and 21.5% strikeout rate left much to be desired. The Rays made the improvements many of us thought they would make to Ryan Pepiot’s approach after they acquired him from the Dodgers. By having him lean into high fastballs, the Rays helped push Pepiot to a rotation-best 3.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP to go along with a 26.3% strikeout rate. The Rays also got a strong stretch out of Taj Bradley over the summer, but he continues to struggle with consistency, and both Shane Baz and Jeffrey Springs looked good in their returns from injury. In the bullpen, the Rays coached strong seasons out of previously unheralded Edwin Uceta, Manuel Rodriguez, and Kevin Kelly. Tampa continues to churn out impactful fantasy relievers.
On the offensive side, there wasn’t much to write home about for Tampa Bay. Jose Cabellero did swipe 44 bases while playing strong defense at shortstop, which was likely exactly what Tampa Bay had in mind when they traded for him this offseason. Brandon Lowe posted the highest offensive WAR of the players who ended the season on the team, and while his .244 average was an improvement for him, it still wasn’t a major boon for fantasy managers; although, his 21 home runs in 107 games were. Junior Caminero battled quad injuries during the season and finally got called up to make 43 starts at the end of the season. While his 21.5% strikeout rate is encouraging for such a young player, the rest of the offensive performance didn’t carry over in 2024.
What Went Wrong
Many of the offensive players took a real step back in 2024. Randy Arozarena hit just .211/.318/.394 in 100 games before being traded away at the deadline. Yandy Diaz still posted a solid .281 average but he hit just 14 home runs and didn’t help fantasy managers in many ways aside from the batting average. Josh Lowe battled injuries that delayed his start to the year and then hit just .241/.302/.391 with 10 home runs and a 31.8% strikeout rate in 106 games. Jose Siri didn’t show any real improvement in his contact rates and struck out 38% of the time this year, and Christopher Morel was brutal after coming over in a trade with the Cubs, hitting .191/.258/.289 with a 29.5% strikeout rate and just three home runs in 49 games. On the pitching side, both Aaron Civale and Zach Eflin failed to progress in the way the Rays envisioned, so both of them were shipped out before the trade deadline. Pete Fairbanks also struggled with both injuries and performance, pitching to a 3.57 ERA with four blown saves in 45.1 innings on the season.
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Fantasy Slants
- Junior Caminero could easily be the first Rays hitter taken in fantasy drafts in 2025. The 21-year-old played 3B and hit 2nd or 3rd basically every game for the final month of the season. With Isaac Paredes gone, Caminero figures to enter 2025 as the starter at third base. His results weren’t great in 2024, but he did post an 11.8% barrel rate to go along with a solid 21.5% strikeout rate in his 43-game sample. He also hit .276/.331/.498 in 53 Triple-A games with 13 home runs, and we’ve seen that it takes young hitters a longer time to adjust to MLB pitching these days than it had in the past. Caminero is not going to give you anything in the way of speed, but he could be a .270 hitter with 20-plus home runs as his floor while hitting in the middle of the lineup in 2025, and that makes him a solid corner field target with the upside for more if it clicks for him in the way it did for Jackson Chourio in the second half of 2024.
- Josh Lowe figures to be another highly drafted Rays hitter thanks to his solid 2023 season, and the fact that he stole 25 bases in 106 games this season. Even though Lowe’s strikeout rate went up in 2024, his swinging strike rate dropped and his called strike rate was almost identical, so we could see him get back under a 30% strikeout rate next season. He’s likely more of a .260 hitter than the hitter we saw in 2023 but that could still come with 20 home runs and 30 steals over a full season, so that keeps him valuable in most fantasy formats.
- Jose Siri and Jose Caballero continue to see regular time in the lineup due to their strong defensive numbers, but only Caballero has fantasy value thanks to his elite stolen base production. If the team comes into 2025 with him set to be a regular starter then that will keep him on deep-league radars if you’re struggling for speed late in your drafts.
- The rest of the Tampa Bay bats are a huge question mark. Mid-season trade acquisitions Dylan Carlson and Christopher Morel struggled after coming to Tampa Bay and found themselves in part-time roles, so it’s unclear what to expect from them in 2025. Morel has more upside because we can envision the Rays unlocking the same pulled fly ball approach they had Isaac Paredes use to plenty of success. However, Morel needs to find a defensive home, and he has graded out poorly everywhere, so he may be limited to DH-only duties, which could impact his overall playing time. Jonathan Aranda did have a solid month of September to end the season, hitting .253/.329/.507 with five home runs, 13 runs scored, and 10 RBI in 24 games with just an 18.8% strikeout rate. Much like Yandy Diaz, he’s not going to help at all with steals, but he could be a 20+ home run hitter with a decent batting average if he got a full-time role.
- The Rays rotation will look totally different next year with all of Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen expected to be healthy at the start of the season. McClanahan underwent Tommy John surgery in August of 2023, so he will be almost 19 months removed from surgery by the time the season starts. That makes him a pretty good bet for a healthy
season. Considering he has a career 3.02 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 21% K-BB% in 404.2 innings, we should expect pretty elite production for 140 or more innings from the left-hander in 2025, which will make him a borderline top-15 starting pitcher again.
- Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen did return this season with Springs starting seven games and posting a 3.27 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 18.3% K-BB%. His fastball velocity was down about two mph, but considering he was still returning from the elbow injury, we should expect Springs to be fully healthy coming into the season and a strong SP3 option in fantasy leagues. Rasmussen is a bit trickier since he may not have a spot in a fully healthy Tampa Bay rotation given his previous success as a reliever.
- The rest of the Rays rotation will be made up of some combination of Shane Baz, Ryan Pepiot, and Taj Bradley. Bradley had a strong stretch over the summer, but he remains a distant third in this group because he struggles to establish any consistency as an MLB starter. He might be the first crack at a spot in the rotation, but if he struggles, the Rays could send him to the minors and let Rasmussen start. Baz and Pepiot seem like locks to be in the rotation. Pepiot flashed real upside in his 130 innings in 2024 and there is more strikeout upside in his arsenal that could make him a top 20-25 fantasy starting pitcher. Baz settled in as the season went on, posting a 2.62 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 23.5% strikeout rate over his final 82 innings. The 25-year-old could finally make good on his considerable upside next season.
- Pete Fairbanks struggled through some poor performances early in the season and then missed the final month of the season with a lat injury. That led to a 3.57 ERA and a 23.8% strikeout rate that was easily the lowest of his career. Heading into next season at 31 years old, you have to wonder if he remains with Tampa Bay all season since the Rays have a club option for $7 million in 2026. That seems like a sum the Rays would rather not pay for a reliever, so if Fairbanks is dealt, then who will close in Tampa Bay? It could be Edwin Uceta again, or it could be Rasmussen or maybe even Hunter Bigge, who they got from the Cubs in the Isaac Paredes trade. The 26-year-old has a high-90s fastball and acquitted himself well in his first 17.1 MLB innings, posting a 2.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 33% strikeout rate.
- It may be time for fantasy managers to turn the page on Curtis Mead, Osleivis Basabe, and Kameron Misner. They are all notable prospects who we thought might eventually pop and earn playing time for the Rays, but none of them have been able to carve out any meaningful at-bats. There may be a chance next season, but each of them seems to be on the outside looking in right now. Other top hitting prospects like Xavier Isaac, Brayden Taylor, Chandler Simpson, and Carson Williams seem a bit too far away to contribute in 2025.
- Ian Seymour is the top Tampa Bay pitching prospect of note after posting a 2.35 ERA and 162 strikeouts across 145.1 innings spread across Double-A and Triple-A. The 25-year-old is ready for an MLB opportunity, but the Rays rotation is full right now, so unless there’s a trade or injury, Seymour may not get a shot until later in 2025.
Key Free Agents
Brandon Lowe (club option for $10.5 million), Erasmo Ramirez, and Alex Jackson.
Team Needs
Not as much as you’d think. With the return of McClanahan, Springs, and Rasmussen, this Tampa Bay rotation is in good shape, and we know their bullpen will always be solid, so the Rays don’t have many, if any, spots free on their pitching staff. The lineup is another issue. We know that Caminero, Diaz, and Josh Lowe are likely to fill everyday spots in the lineup. The Rays are likely to try and find space for Christopher Morel since they traded for him, and Jose Caballero played well enough to earn some role, but there are plenty of question marks after that. It seems unlikely the Rays will spend $10 million to bring Brandon Lowe back, so Jonathan Aranda, Curtis Mead, and Taylor Walls all have a chance to be regulars even if none of them scream fantasy value. Perhaps the Rays find a budget option on the free agent market because the in-house options don’t provide a lot of confidence that this offense can take a big step forward in 2025.