Sunday Funday Stat Leaderboard: Kirilloff surging, Garrett still valuable

Welcome to the Sunday Funday Stat Leaderboard. If you were following my work ahead of my transition to NBC Sports then you might know this as the Samulski Sunday Tribune. It’s a new name, but if the same column with just a few sections removed since it’s now FULLY FREE.

If you’re new to this column, the goal is to present you with the top performers in a few key stats for this week of action. I then try to give some context to some of the names on that list, so we can begin to see just how real this hot week of production was. This way we can together decide if these are players we should be bidding on, bidding BIG on, or maybe trying to trade away or trade for.

I also have two sections of minor league leaders over the last 30 days, so we can see if there are any under-the-radar names that might be worth stashing. So far this season, those leaderboards put us onto Matt McLain , Trey Cabbage, Tanner Bibee, Bryan Woo , Nolan Jones , Maikel Garcia, and many more weeks (sometimes months) ahead of their call-up. That can be valuable insight in redraft leagues.

With that said, let’s dive into the leaders from this week. Happy Sunday!

Hitting Leaders (Week of July 17th)

Hard Hit Baseballs

1. Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL - 15 hard-hit baseballs (83.3%)
2. Austin Riley , ATL - 12 hard-hit baseballs (70.6%)
3. Maikel Garcia , KC - 12 hard-hit baseballs (70.6%)
4. Nolan Arenado , STL - 11 hard-hit baseballs (52.4%)
5. Fernando Tatis Jr., SD - 11 hard-hit baseballs (64.7%)
6. Christian Yelich , MIL - 11 hard-hit baseballs (61.1%)
7. Cody Bellinger , CHC - 10 hard-hit baseballs (47.8%)
8. Eight hitters with 10 hard-hit baseballs, including Alex Kirilloff, Gleyber Torres, Gunnar Henderson , Ketel Marte , and Brandon Lowe.

Maikel Garcia continues to show people that he’s not just a speed player. He has the sixth-best hard-hit rate among third basemen this season and ranks seventh in exit velocity on fly balls and line drives with a 96.4 mph mark that’s better than Josh Jung and J.D. Davis, among others. However, Garcia has just a 4.2-degree launch angle, so you won’t see many barrels or home runs with that mark. Yet, he remains a solid batting average asset with good speed who could really take off in fantasy value if he begins to lift even just a little bit.

Brandon Lowe and Gleyber Torres are 2B going in opposite directions of late. Over the last 30 days, Torres is hitting .295/.337/.442 with three home runs, 14 runs scored, 11 RBI, and two stolen bases and seems to have fully recovered from his prolonged slump. He’s also striking out just 16.3% of the time over those 24 games and should see a fantasy boost when Aaron Judge returns. Meanwhile, Lowe is batting .225/.354/.425 with one home run, three RBI, and three strikeouts. A .225 average is actually pretty decent for him and his 16.7% strikeout rate over that 14 game span is nice, but if you’re getting a low average with Lowe (and you will) then you need the power, and he has just that lone home run since coming back from injury. If the power production doesn’t return, it’s hard for Tampa to justify giving him every day at-bats once Taylor Walls returns from the IL.

Home Runs

1. Austin Riley, ATL - 6 home runs
2. Wilmer Flores , SF - 4 home runs
3. Eugenio Suárez, SEA - 3 home runs
4. Josh Naylor , CLE - 3 home runs
5. Alex Bregman , HOU - 3 home runs
6. Kyle Tucker , HOU - 3 home runs
7. Freddie Freeman , LAD - 3 home runs
8. Alex Kirilloff, MIN - 3 home runs
9. Matt McLain, CIN - 3 home runs
10. Juan Soto , SD - 3 home runs
11. Orlando Arcia , ATL - 3 home runs
    

Eugenio Suarez is doing that thing where he gets incredibly hot over the summer. At this point, we should understand that this is the type of hitter that he is. When the weather is warmer, and the ball is flying better, he’s going to get to his power more consistently.

It’s really nice to see Alex Kirilloff making good on his promise. I was incredibly in on Kirilloff heading into last season due to his hard contact rates in his rookie season. However, the wrist injury that plagued him in his rookie season reared its ugly head last year too. This year, Kirilloff has also battled through some injuries, but he’s been heating up of late, hitting .319/.367/.569 over his last 30 days with four home runs and 18 RBI. For me, he needs to be rostered in all leagues and in all lineups, and the only thing that will slow him down is an injury.

Stolen Bases

1. Corbin Carroll, ARI - 3 SBs
2. CJ Abrams, WAS - 3 SBs
3. Luis Robert, CWS - 3 SBs
4. 18 players with two SBs, including Jarren Duran , Chas McCormick , Lars Nootbaar , Jon Berti , Masataka Yoshida , and Forrest Wall

Ah, the time-honored tradition of reminding us all that “prospect growth is not linear.” CJ Abrams was just 21 years old when he made his debut last year in San Diego, so we shouldn’t be too hard on him for struggling. He had also never played more than 48 games at any one minor league level, so he was always going to need some time to make adjustments at the big league level. This season, he’s hitting .257/.304/.424 with nine home runs and 19 steals. Over the last 30 days, that’s .325/.378/.506 with two home runs and 12 steals. With just an 18.5% strikeout rate over that time, Abrams is now firmly on the radar in batting average leagues as a speed asset.

Forrest Wall was just called up and has appeared in just one game as a pinch runner but stole two bases. The 27-year-old had 45 steals in 78 Triple-A games this year after stealing 52 bases in Triple-A last season, so we know he can move. The question is playing time. He was called up to fill Sam Hilliard’s spot as a bench OF, so there doesn’t seem to be a path to him starting much, especially as a left-handed hitter because he won’t even get into lineups when Eddie Rosario sits against lefties.

Pitching Leaders (Week of July 10th)

SwStr% (Starting Pitchers)

1. Domingo German, NYY - 25.5% SwStr%
2. Spencer Strider , ATL - 23.0% SwStr%
3. Tanner Bibee , CLE - 21.6% SwStr%
4. Kyle Gibson , BAL - 20.9% SwStr%
5. Luis Castillo , SEA - 19.2% SwStr%
6. Hogan Harris , OAK - 18.9% SwStr%
7. Jon Gray , TEX - 18.8% SwStr%
8. Braxton Garrett , MIA 18.6% SwStr%
9. Brayan Bello, BOS - 17.9% SwStr%
10. Kenta Maeda , MIA - 17.5% SwStr%

Domingo German gave up five runs in six innings in this start, so don’t get too caught up in the swing-and-miss. German has flashed this year, but he’s also incredibly inconsistent and has given up 22 earned runs in his last 36 2/3 innings.

Brayan Bello and Braxton Garrett are two pitchers coming off bad starts, despite the high swing-and-miss, but I’m not overly concerned about either. To me, Bello remains an option in all leagues. He gave up three home runs to the A’s but pitched fine aside from that. He had given up eight total earned runs in the five starts prior to this week, so don’t give up on him because of one bad outing.

I’m also holding Garrett in deeper leagues (15+ teams). Earlier in the season, I mentioned that even though Garrett was pitching well, his cutter was over-performing all the x-stats and was getting hit hard. As of today, Garrett’s cutter has a .236 average against but a .299 xBA. It’s also now allowing a 14.8% barrel rate and .514 SLG. However, to me, Garrett is the same pitcher he was earlier in the year. He relies on a slider that has a 24.1% SwStr% and .183 average against. The rest of his pitches, including his cutter, are inconsistent, so there are some starts where he will be lights out and others where he will get hit hard. That’s too volatile for shallow leagues, but I think those good starts are worth having him on your roster in deeper leagues. Just be careful when you use him.

Saves

1. Alexis Diaz , CIN - 3 saves
2. Trevor May, OAK - 3 saves
3. 13 relievers with two saves, including David Robertson , Adbert Alzolay , Kyle Finnegan, Devin Williams , Alex Lange, Justin Lawrence , and Kevin Ginkel.

Trevor May is pitching pretty well as the closer in Oakland, and we know that when they do win games, they are liable to be close games. However, I would be shocked if May was not traded at the deadline. There are also rumors that Alex Lange could be on the move, which means stashing Jason Foley or Braden White could make sense. Kyle Finnegan has quietly been pretty solid over the last two months, and is holding down the closer’s role with Hunter Harvey hurt (again), and Kevin Ginkel appears to have taken the Diamondbacks closer job from Scott McGough (for now). With Arizona in the playoff race, it would not be a shock to see them trade for bullpen help.

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MINOR LEAGUE HITTER LEADERBOARD (Last 30 Days)

1. Curtis Mead , 2B/3B TB - 1.265 OPS (1 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB, 33% hard-hit rate)
2. Micah Pries , 1B CLE - 1.164 OPS (8 HR, 17 RBI, 35.3% hard-hit rate)
3. Weston Wilson, SS/1B/OF PHI - 1.114 OPS (9 HR, 17 RBI, 5 SB, 36.5% hard-hit rate)
4. Jimmy Herron OF COL - 1.085 OPS (2 HR, 11 RBI, 6 SB, 37% hard-hit rate)
5. Jordyn Adams , OF LAA - .957 OPS (1 HR, 11 RBI, 14 SB, 29.2% hard-hit rate)

Curtis Mead was hurt earlier in the season, but has been hitting the ball well of late and could be an option if the Rays decide to give Brandon Lowe competition at 2B. Jordyn Adams could also get a chance to flash his speed in LA if Trey Cabbage falters, but I really like Cabbage to hold onto that spot. The rest of these players all feel like guys who won’t see meaningful fantasy at-bats this year; although, maybe Weston Wilson can push himself into a super-UTIL role in Philadelphia.

MINOR LEAGUE PITCHER K/9 LEADERBOARD (Last 30 Days)

1. Robert Gasser, MIL 13.24 K/9
2. Joey Cantillo , CLE 12.38 K/9
3. Ryan Weathers, SD 12.34 K/9
4. Jared Jones , PIT 12.05 K/9
5. Jacob Lopez, TB 11.91 K/9
6. Connor Phillips, CIN 11.72 K/9
7. Kai-Wei Teng, SF 10.80 K/9
8. Spencer Arrighetti , HOU 10.47 K/9

It seems like Cleveland keeps churning out pitching prospects, but Joey Cantillo is now another name to watch. Same goes for Jacob Lopez , who is having a good year but is buried in a deep Tampa Bay system. I’ve mentioned Connor Phillips and Spencer Arrighetti earlier in the season, and they’re two arms I really like. I think Phillips could debut as a starter this season and would be worth a good FAAB bid, but I get the feeling Houston will debut Arrighetti as a reliever like they did with Hunter Brown last year. We’ve seen Ryan Weathers as an MLB starter and he’s a fringe fantasy asset, and Jared Jones is just 21 years old and has struggled in his first few Triple-A starts, which could mean he’s more of a 2024 option. This is the first I’m hearing of Kai-Wei Teng , but the 24-year-old is having a solid season. I just can’t trust the Giants with their crowded pitching staff. That leaves Robert Gasser , who is one of the better pitching prospects in the high minors. With Milwaukee pushing for a playoff spot, there’s a chance Gasser gets an opportunity if Julio Teheran or Colin Rea falter.
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