St. Louis Cardinals
2024 record: 83-79
2nd place, NL Central
Team ERA: 4.04 (16th in MLB)
Team OPS: .704 (15th in MLB)
What Went Right
Well, not enough to prevent Chaim Bloom from slowly taking over control of the Cardinals organization. There certainly were some positives, though. The Cardinals improved from 71 wins in 2023 to 83 wins in 2024, though their Pythagorean win total of 76 is likely a more accurate representation of the club’s performance. Ryan Helsley had a 2.04 ERA and 49 saves. Alec Burleson emerged with a .269 average, 21 home runs, 71 runs scored, 78 RBI and nine stolen bases. Brendan Donovan had a 115 wRC+. Maysn Winn, 22, led the team with 3.6 WAR. Willson Contreras continued to mash at the plate with a 140 wRC+. Lars Nootbaar (114 wRC+) was good again, though injuries limited him to 109 games played. Sonny Gray had an excellent first season with St. Louis. He posted a 2.82 xFIP in 28 starts. Andre Pallante, 25, established himself as a starter with a 3.89 xFIP in 20 starts. Overall, though, it wasn’t enough to stop what will likely be a transition period in future seasons as St. Louis looks to get younger and cheaper at the big league level.
What Went Wrong
The Cardinals were expensive for such a middling team. St. Louis was 13th in payroll and didn’t get enough out of their expensive players, which is why all of them will be available in trade this offseason and Bloom is taking over control of the organization. Nolan Arenado (102 wRC+) had the worst season of his career since coming to St. Louis. Paul Goldschmidt, who the Cardinals reportedly aren’t interested in re-signing this offseason, was just as bad with a 100 wRC+. Miles Mikolas (4.08 xFIP) isn’t much more than an innings eater. Kyle Gibson (4.19 xFIP), Lance Lynn (4.39 xFIP), and Steven Matz (4.50 xFIP) are basically roster fillers. Even Erick Fedde (4.36 xFIP) wasn’t anything special after he was acquired in a midseason trade. For a team desperate for its young players to take a step forward, Nolan Gorman (87 wRC+) and Jordan Walker (72 wRC+) were both flops that strike out way too much with 37 percent and 28 percent strikeout percentages respectively. Gorman’s 2024 season was especially disappointing after he hit 27 home runs with a 118 wRC+ in 119 games in 2023. Victor Scott II, one of the fastest players in the game who stole 94 bases in 132 minor league games in 2023, was a complete failure in his rookie campaign. The 23-year-old posted a 40 wRC+ and just five stolen bases in 53 major league games and wasn’t much better with a 59 wRC+ in 81 games with Triple-A.
Fantasy Slants
Which Maysn Winn will we get in 2025? In 2024, Winn hit .284 with five home runs in 86 games in the first half and then hit .247 with 10 home runs in 62 games in the second half. Winn also stole more bases in the minor leagues than the 11 steals he had in 150 games with the Cardinals in 2024. With plenty of potential still untapped here, Winn is easily the most exciting Cardinal in fantasy and real life heading into 2025.
Alec Burleson can probably repeat his production from 2024. Burleson’s contact skills are certainly impressive. His 12.8 strikeout percentage was only bested by Luis Arraez, Steven Kwan, Nico Hoerner, Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez and Brendan Donovan among qualified hitters. Burleson might not have another gear, but he did have a .331 average and 20 home runs in 109 games in his last Triple-A season in 2022. He makes enough contact to have a .300 average season in the future when BABIP luck is in his favor.
Sonny Gray turns 35 in November and seems like he’ll be on the move again this winter, but he’s still as good as he’s ever been. His 2.82 xFIP was over a full run lower than his 3.84 ERA and his 30 percent strikeout percentage was nearly a career-high while his 5.8 percent walk percentage was a career-low. A low 67 percent left on base percentage contributed to his mediocre ERA. He deserved much better and looks like one of the more underrated arms in fantasy heading into the winter.
Ivan Herrera might be in play in two-catcher formats in 2025. Assuming the Cardinals trade Contreras this offseason, which seems like a safe assumption, Herrera will at minimum be sharing catching duties with Pedro Pages. Sharing catching duties might even be preferable for a player like Herrera because we aren’t sure that he can hit for a decent average at the major league level yet. Herrera seems like he can hit for power, though, which makes him potentially attractive in fantasy. He had a .207 ISO in 375 plate appearances with Triple-A in 2023, a .194 ISO in 112 plate appearances in 2024 and five home runs in 259 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2024. His wRC+ was 127, but that was fueled mostly by a .301 average that he needed a .370 BABIP to achieve. That BABIP seems high to me, but Herrera makes enough contact that his BABIPs might skew higher despite being a catcher. He had a 20 percent strikeout percentage with the Cardinals in 2024, a 17 percent strikeout percentage at Triple-A in 2024 and a 20 percent strikeout percentage at Triple-A in 2023. Herrera will also take a walk as he had a nine percent walk percentage with the Cardinals in 2024, 17 percent walk percentage at Triple-A in 2024, and a 20 percent walk percentage at Triple-A in 2023. Could Herrera have a breakout season in 2025? I don’t know, I’m just asking questions, but there’s enough in his profile to have interest at what’ll likely be a minimal cost.
Thomas Saggese was acquired by the Cardinals in 2023 when they traded Jordan Montgomery to the Rangers. Saggese hit .253 with a .186 ISO, 23 percent strikeout percentage, five percent walk percentage in 528 plate appearances at Triple-A in 2024. He hit .204 with one home run in 52 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2024. Saggese isn’t a top prospect, but the 22-year-old did fine in his first season above Double-A. He doesn’t have the loud tools to be an obvious fantasy option, but his well-rounded game will be useful in deeper formats if the Cardinals give him the starting job at second base.
The Cardinals have a couple of interesting in-house options for potential back of the rotation spots in Michael McGreevey and Sem Robberse. McGreevey even had a 2.72 xFIP in three starts for St. Louis at the end of the year. Elbow issues limited Robberse to 14 starts at Triple-A with a 4.59 ERA. Both are projected as back of the rotation talents, but could be useful in deeper formats eventually.
Key Free Agents
Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew Kittredge, Matt Carpenter
Team Needs
It’s no secret what the Cardinals are set to do this offseason. While the organization isn’t using words like retool and rebuild (yet), John Mozeliak is in his last year running the team and his chosen general manager has been reassigned. They’re going to let Chaim Bloom cook. While it’s unclear what that might look like exactly, the Cardinals’ ownership and fans are probably tired of seeing players they let go like Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia and Zac Gallen thrive in other organizations while the players they hang onto like Dylan Carlson, Walker and Gorman struggle. Boston currently has five top 100 prospects in Kyle Teel, Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, Miguel Bleis and Kristian Campbell that were acquired while Bloom was in charge. No one should be surprised if any of Contreras, Gray and Arenado are traded or if guys like Gibson and Lynn aren’t brought back. What does this team need? They’re going to get younger and cheaper and everything that comes along with that philosophy.
