Seattle Mariners
2024 record: 85-77
Second place, AL West
Team ERA: 3.49 (T-1st in MLB)
Team OPS: .687 (22nd in MLB)
What Went Right
As expected, the Mariners pitching was among the best in baseball; in particular the starting group. Logan Gilbert led all of baseball in innings with 208 ⅔ frames, and his 3.23 ERA and 220 strikeouts show there was quality with the quantity. Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo -- the fourth and fifth starters on the team to open the year -- both posted ERAs under 3.00 and look to be on the rise. Combine that with solid seasons from George Kirby and Luis Castillo and you have arguably the most complete 1-5 in the sport. The Mariners also got a solid season from closer Andres Munoz with a 2.12 ERA and 77/26 K/BB over 59 1/3 innings, and Collin Snider came out of nowhere with a 1.94 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 41 1/3 innings against 13 walks.
The offense mostly struggled, but there were some decent offensive seasons for Seattle in 2024. Victor Robles was cast off by Washington, and became the Mariners best hitter with a .320 average, 30 stolen bases and an .867 OPS over 77 games. Cal Raleigh passed Mike Piazza for the most homers for any catcher over his first four seasons with 93, and 34 of those roundtrippers came in 2024 with an even 100 RBI. And while Julio Rodriguez had his ups and downs in 2024 -- more on that in a second -- he was able to produce 20 homers and 24 stolen bases while playing sensational defense in center field.
What Went Wrong
The Mariners were at one point 44-31 and built a 10 game lead in the division. They ended up blowing that lead in a few short months, fired long-time manager Scott Servais and missed the playoffs for the 22nd time in 23 seasons. That blame goes almost entirely on the offense, and no team struck out more than Seattle did with 1,625 in 2024. Mitch Garver was a disaster in his first year in Seattle with a .627 OPS and went from being full-time designated hitter to backup catcher by the end of the season. Mitch Haniger’s return to Seattle saw him slash .208/.286/.334, and Jorge Polanco needed a hot run just to get up to 16 homers and a .651 OPS. The team did make trades at the deadline to help improve the offense with the additions of Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner, and while both players helped more than hurt in their two months with the club, it wasn’t enough with the team finishing a game back of the postseason for the second straight campaign.
And while the rotation was strong, the bullpen did have its issues in large part due to not having Matt Brash for the entire campaign and Gregory Santos being limited to just eight appearances due to injury on top of disappointing seasons from arms like Gabe Speier.
Fantasy Slants
- Rodriguez finished the year strong, but to say that he frustrated fantasy managers at times in 2024 is quite the understatement. The power was not there in the first half with just 10 homers and a .372 slugging percentage, and four of his six months he registered an OPS below .700. From the start of July to the end of the season Rodriguez was able to hit .312/.364/.528 with 13 homers in 58 games, and there’s simply no denying that he possesses as much talent as any hitter in baseball. Keep in mind Rodriguez turns 24 at the end of December, and he’s absolutely worth a first-round selection in eligible leagues.
- After coming over from Tampa Bay for three prospects, Arozarena only hit .231 in his 54 games with a .377 slugging percentage, but he was able to get on at a .356 clip thanks in large part to being hit 11 times and leading all of baseball with 22 plunks. He got off to as bad of a start as you can have with a .460 OPS through the first month of the season, but he registered a respectable .784 OPS with 17 homers and 16 steals from May 1 on. Arozarena is always going to be a streaky player, but the overall numbers always seem to be solid. Expect more of the same in 2025, even if Seattle doesn’t make for the friendliest of home confines.
- Most of Seattle’s offensive additions failed in somewhat spectacular fashion, but Luke Raley was an exception. He homered 22 times while posting a .783 OPS -- good for a 129 OPS+ -- and he was better than that number for the majority of the year; an awful April (.505 OPS) and July (.504) weighed down four months where that figure was above .820. There’s considerable swing-and-miss in his profile and he can’t hit left-handed pitching, but Raley was well above-average in expected slugging, average exit velocity and barrel percentage. Even acknowledging that the numbers will be hurt by his need for a platoon, there’s enough here to suggest he can be a relevant fantasy player going forward.
- Woo’s 2.89 ERA in his second season is obviously impressive, but what was even more eye-popping was 101/13 K/BB over his 121 1/3 frames. No player avoided walks better than he did with a 2.8 percent rate, but his 4.8 percent barrel rate allowed -- 91st best in the sport -- and well above-average hard hit rate (35.2 percent) shows that he is one of the toughest pitchers to square up as well. His lack of swing-and-miss stuff makes him a little riskier than some, but Woo offers safety because of his ability to fill the strike zone and limit weak contact. Just keep in mind he isn’t likely to be among the league leaders in innings anytime soon, either.
- J.P. Crawford had a breakout 2023 season where he hit 19 homers, drew 94 walks and finished with an .818 OPS. He didn’t come close to reaching those heights in 2024, and while injuries played a part as seen in him being limited to just 105 games, his .202/.304/.321 slash in those contests was a major disappointment. His approach remains elite with a chase rate that ranked in the 99th percentile of all hitters, but he was in the bottom 25th percentile or worse in expected batting average, average exit velocity and slugging. Crawford is still just 29 and there’s a chance he is able to find that form of just a season ago, but fantasy players shouldn’t bet on it.
Key Free Agents
Polanco ($10 million club option), Haniger ($20 million player option), Justin Turner, Yimi Garcia
Polanco’s option seemed like a lock to be picked up prior to the 2024 season, but it’s now far from a guarantee. On the other side of the spectrum, Haniger is certainly to take that player option, and Seattle may need to work something out to keep him off the roster in 2025.
Team Needs
The Mariners seem to have their outfield set with Arozarena, Rodriguez and Robles in the fold for 2025, but the team has question marks throughout the infield and designated hitter. The team will hope for rebounds from players like Crawford, Garver and potentially Polanco; but this team needs significant additions to the offense if they are going to truly contend for a World Championship in 2025. Considering how good the pitching is, it’d be extremely disappointing if they didn’t.
