San Francisco Giants
Team Record: 80-82 (.494)
4th Place, NL West
Team ERA: 4.10 (19th)
Team OPS: .701 (19th)
What Went Right
Finishing near .500 while 19th in both ERA and OPS, this team was about as middle-of-the-pack as it gets in 2024. Logan Webb had another fantastic season as the team’s ace, leading the National League in innings pitched with 204, posting a 3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 172 strikeouts. Blake Snell was limited to just 20 starts due to groin and adductor injuries but was excellent when on the mound. The 31-year-old left-hander posted a 3.12 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 145 strikeouts over 104 innings. The 34.7 percent strikeout rate was a career-best for Snell. And Ryan Walker stepped up in the bullpen, breaking out to a 1.91 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 99 strikeouts over 80 innings. The 28-year-old right-hander picked up 10 wins and took over as the team’s closer in the second half converting 10 saves.
On the offensive side, Matt Chapman had his best season at the dish since 2019, slashing .247/.328/.463 with 27 homers, 98 runs scored, 78 RBI, and a career-high 15 stolen bases across 647 plate appearances. His 24.4 percent strikeout rate was his best mark since his 2019 campaign. The Giants rewarded Chapman with a six-year, $151 million contract extension, locking the 31-year-old third baseman in through the 2030 season. The team struggled to find their everyday shortstop until Tyler Fitzgerald emerged, posting a .831 OPS with 15 homers and 17 steals over just 341 plate appearances. And Heliot Ramos broke onto the scene, slashing .269/.322/.469 with 22 homers, 72 RBI, and six steals over 518 plate appearances.
What Went Wrong
The Giants struggled to get anything out of the back end of the starting rotation outside of Webb and Snell (when healthy). Kyle Harrison earned a starting spot out of spring training and was expected to step into that third starter role. He flashed some upside with a few strong starts but struggled with consistency. Harrison posted a 4.56 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 118 strikeouts while being limited to 124 1/3 innings due to ankle and shoulder injuries. Jordan Hicks had gotten off to a strong start, posting a 1.59 ERA through April, but struggled through the rest of the first half, working his way out of the rotation following the All-Star break. In the bullpen, Camilo Doval came into the season as one of the premier closers in baseball but struggled to a 4.88 ERA over 59 innings, eventually earning a demotion to Triple-A and ceding the closer role to Ryan Walker. The lineup experienced similar issues as the team failed to get meaningful contributions outside of Chapman, Ramos, and Fitzgerald. The biggest letdown came from infielder Thairo Estrada, who posted a .590 OPS over 381 plate appearances before he was waived by the team and outrighted to Triple-A.
Fantasy Slants
** Logan Webb is about as safe as they come when looking at starting pitchers. The 28-year-old right-hander continues to excel at run prevention while tossing more than 200 innings in back-to-back seasons. While a lack of strikeouts makes it hard to call him an “ace” for fantasy purposes, he makes for an incredibly reliable number two or three option, especially when taking some chances early with risky starters.
** Blake Snell is exactly the kind of risky starter you pair with someone like Webb. There’s no doubt Snell is one of the most skilled starting pitchers in baseball, but there’s always an inning concern with the veteran left-hander. Ideally for fantasy purposes, Snell would stay in San Francisco. But there’s a good chance he exercises his opt-out to test the free-agent market once again.
** Matt Chapman was more aggressive than ever on the bases, finding success going 15-for-17 in stolen base attempts. He finished fourth among qualified third basemen in steals, trailing José Ramírez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Maikel Garcia. With his everyday role in the heart of San Francisco’s lineup, Chapman should be a solid third base option in the middle rounds who can be a sneaky speed contributor outside of his power and counting stat contributions, making him a little more valuable in roto and category leagues.
** It’ll be interesting to see where Heliot Ramos goes in drafts. He came out on fire for the Giants, hitting .298 with 14 homers in the first half before cooling off a bit down the stretch. And he was reportedly playing through plantar fasciitis in September to end the season. The promising 25-year-old outfielder has a chance to be the team’s best hitter next season, displaying an impressive 14.5 percent barrel rate and 47.4 percent hard-hit rate to support his home run power. He’ll even contribute some speed after swiping six bags in 2024. The biggest question will be in his hit tool. Ramos had a .269 batting average on the season while striking out 26 percent of the time, not an egregious number when he’s hitting the ball as hard as he does. Maintaining that strikeout rate, there’s potentially a .270 hitter with 30-homer power here.
** Tyler Fitzgerald went on an incredible tear in July, at one point hitting eight home runs in a ten-game stretch. On the surface, his .280 batting average, 15 home runs, and 17 steals over just 341 plate appearances might be fun to project over a full season, but there are some major red flags here. The 27-year-old shortstop could be in for some significant regression after posting a .380 BABIP. He also struck out at a 31.7 percent clip. A hard-hit rate of 31.4 percent isn’t nearly high enough to mask that strikeout issue or warrant an inflated BABIP. He also converted 17 total barrels into 15 homers, something that’s difficult to repeat. While he may be worth a dart throw in deeper leagues, I find it hard to imagine a player with this underlying skillset making an impact in more shallow formats.
** The closer situation will be one to monitor next spring. While Camilo Doval did make his way back to the team after earning a demotion, he did nothing to regain their confidence, posting a 5.40 ERA upon his return. Meanwhile, Ryan Walker locked down ten saves from August 10 onward and was excellent all season, posting a 1.91 ERA behind a 32.1 percent strikeout rate and just a 5.8 percent walk rate. Walker could be one of the better mid-to-late-round relievers to take a chance on in fantasy drafts.
Key Free Agents
Michael Conforto, Wilmer Flores (option), Robbie Ray (opt-out), Blake Snell (opt-out)
Team Needs
Perhaps the biggest team need is rotation depth behind Webb, especially if Snell opts out of the second year of his contract as he’s likely to do. Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong could build on their rookie seasons, but expect this team to be players in the free-agent starting pitching market once again. The lineup is also in need of improvement. Center fielder Jung Hoo Lee should return from shoulder surgery to be the table-setter atop the lineup. Chapman and Ramos are set to be the power hitters in the heart of the order to drive in runs. But apart from that, the team can only go on with platoons everywhere for so long. Buster Posey played a pivotal role in securing Chapman to an extension, and the former MVP backstop taking over as president of baseball operations could signal a change in the team’s approach in the hitting market.