San Diego Padres
2024 record: 93-69
Second place NL West
Team ERA: 3.86 ERA (12th in MLB)
Team OPS: .745 (6th in MLB)
What Went Right
Basically everything went right for the Padres once the second half started. They were a league-best 43-20 after the break and had moments where they felt like the most complete team in baseball.
Starting pitching set the tone for their torrid streak. Off-season acquisitions Dylan Cease and Michael King each delivered ace-like seasons. Cease pitched a team-high 189 1/3 innings with a 3.47 ERA and a career-low 8.5 BB%.
King ascended to the front line type of pitcher many predicted he could be with a 2.85 ERA across 170 1/3 innings. There were times in July and August where he looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Veterans Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish each chipped in too despite each missing big chunks of the season. Musgrove went to the IL a few times with elbow soreness and was elite – 2.15 ERA, 25.0 K-BB% – over nine starts upon returning. Nevertheless, those IL stints foreshadowed a greater concern as the team announced he’d need Tommy John surgery during the Wild Card Round.
Darvish stepped away from the team for over three months, but still turned in a 3.31 ERA in 81 2/3 innings overall. Even Martin Perez came over midseason with a 3.46 ERA over 52 innings in the second half.
Yet, their bullpen was arguably more dominant. Robert Suarez ascended to take their closer role and was lights out besides for a few missteps in August and September. Jeremiah Estrada’s 37.3 K% was near the top of the league and looks like a rising star.
Trade deadline acquisitions Tanner Scott, Jason Adam, and Bryan Hoeing each lived up to their billing and Adrian Morejon was effective as their go-to lefty. This bullpen was ferocious.
On the offensive side, there was no brighter spot than Jackson Merrill. Just 20 years old on opening day and with 46 games at double-A under his belt, Merrill immediately made his impact felt on both sides of the ball. He slugged 24 home runs to go along with 16 stolen bases, a .292 average, and 130 wRC+. He also had a knack for the dramatic with six of his homers either tying the game or putting the Padres ahead in the ninth inning or later. To top it all off he played tremendous defense in center field, a position he was literally learning on the fly. He looked like a star in the making.
Also, Jurickson Profar came out of seemingly nowhere to put together an All-Star season. He crossed the 20-homer plateau for the first time since 2019 while setting career bests in batting average (.280), on-base percentage (.380), and slugging percentage (.459). He was a force to be reckoned and will be a fascinating free agent to monitor.
Moreover, Manny Machado shrugged off a sluggish start to put together a very Machado-like season with 29 homers and 105 RBI. Fernando Tatis Jr. missed two months of action, but was highly effective when on the field with 21 homers, 11 stolen bases, and a 135 wRC+ in 102 games.
Even Kyle Higashioka was a league average hitter and chipped in 17 homers. It felt like his team could do no wrong from June through October.
What Went Wrong
Ironically, it’s hard to find many things that went wrong for this team despite their embarrassing finish to the season: being shut out in 25 consecutive innings by the Dodgers in the NLDS.
The one issue to point towards is Xander Bogaerts who missed two months with an ugly shoulder injury and meandered to a .688 OPS in the second year of his 11 year, $285 million contract. That deal is a budding catastrophe.
Ha-seong Kim took a step back after his breakout 2023 season. Luis Campusano took three steps back and doesn’t look like much of a major league hitter. Jake Cronenworth fell off after a scorching hot first half and they didn’t have another reliable hitter to help stabilize the bottom of their order.
Lastly, you probably don’t want the combination of Matt Waldron, Adam Mazur, and Randy Vasquez combining 274 1/3 innings and a 5.28 ERA.
Fantasy Slants
Cease put himself back in the elite echelon of fantasy pitchers this season by pitching in a solid park, in front of a solid defense, and limiting his walks. He leaned heavily into his fastball and slider while not being afraid to beat hitters in the strike zone.
King also looks like a bona fide stud. There were concerns when sis ERA sat at 5.00 on May 1st. Then, he had a 2.42 mark from that point to the end of the season. His sinker is so dominant he was able to throw it against hitters from each side of the plate and then had his bevy of other weapons – changeup, four-seam fastball, and sweeper – to stymie any oppositin. He’s a very intriguing option in drafts after the elite starters are off the board as a cheaper option who could wind up as an SP1.
Darvish is still under contract and will be counted on for volume with Musgrove out for the season. His velocity fell a tad, but he didn’t exactly have a normal shape to his season so that may have just been circumstantial. He also has so many different pitches at his disposal that a small drop in velocity shouldn’t affect him much. There is probably still a steady starting pitcher here without the potential for ace-like production we’ve grown accustomed to with Darvish.
Otherwise, the back of this rotation will need a shot in the arm. Waldron fell apart after being a bit exposed last season. There’s a good chance he gives volume again with the Padres’ pitching depth scarce before free agency.
Vasquez is the name to watch here. He’s on the roster, he’s cheap, he can mix six different pitches, and Stuff+ tells us four of the six are above average including a sweeper and curveball that are plus-plus. He will smash his draft day cost if he can find a way to hide his four-seam fastball with enough sinkers and cutters while commanding his quality breaking balls because he’ll likely have a golden opportunity to take a rotation spot and run with it.
On to the bats, Tatis Jr. ran less often than he did in 2023, but looked much more like the Tatis of old at the plate. He was on the up and up too through June until a strange situation where he was hit on his tricep, then placed on the IL with a stress reaction in his femur that forced him to miss more than two months of action. There will always be ample nonsense with Tatis, yet few can match his ceiling. He’s becoming the newly minted forbidden fruit of fantasy baseball. Buy-in if you dare.
Merrill will be a frustrating player to value this draft season. He’ll receive all the breakout, star potential, ‘could be a 2026 first rounder’ superlatives on upside alone and he’s already been going near the top-30 in early drafts. That’s in the same range as guys like Trea Turner, Matt Olson, and Rafael Devers and ahead of Corey Seager and Austin Riley.
Merrill could explode and become one of the most valuable players in the league, but Matt Chapman had more home runs and stolen bases than him last year. Drafting Merrill at his current price means you’d be at the mercy of a 21-year-olds batting average projection which isn’t the most fun place to be.
Lastly, we have Luis Arraez. Always one of the most bizarre players to value in fantasy baseball because he does one thing better than practically every other player in the league while contributing almost nothing else. His horrific defense has left him as a first baseman and he’ll still have second base eligibility in most leagues too.
There are fun builds with Arraez as a potential batting average anchor in a corner infield spot and there will be some value if the Padres keep him at lead-off. On the other hand, there’s a non-zero chance they non-tender him with an estimated arbitration cost approaching $13 million and plenty of holes on their roster.
Key Free Agents
Ha-seong Kim (mutual option), Jurickson Profar, Kyle Higashioka, Tanner Scott, David Peralta, Donovan Solano.
Team Needs
For years it’s felt like the Padres were just a hitter or two shy of completing this lineup. Even in a year when Tatis was (mostly) healthy and Merrill and Profar popped up out of nowhere, they decided to trade Juan Soto before the season began.
Now, they’ll have decisions to make on Profar, Kim, and Arraez while having gaping holes in left field, possibly shortstop, the entire bottom of their roster, and back of their rotation.
AJ Preller has seemingly always pulled a rabbit out of his you-know-what and will try to again with this roster. Whatever he pulls off will be impressive though because the minor league cupboard finally seems dry and it doesn’t feel like he’ll have much financial flexibility.
But hey, good thing Bogaerts is set to make $25 million as a second baseman with middling power every season until he’s 40 years old. That’ll be just fine.
