Pittsburgh Pirates
2024 record: 76-86
Fifth place, NL Central
Team ERA: 4.15 (20th in MLB)
Team OPS: .672 (27th in MLB)
What Went Right
Pittsburgh had a promising first half of the season. The Pirates were 48-48 before the All-Star break, but crumbled in the second half with a 28-38 record. The most promising on-field development for the Pirates were that multiple young starting pitchers established themselves as rotation options. Jared Jones, 23, had a 3.56 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 98 strikeouts in 91 innings over 16 starts in the first half of the season before struggling in the second half. Luis Ortiz, 25, had a 3.22 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 67 strikeouts in 86 2/ 3 innings in 15 starts. Of course, Paul Skenes, 22, went 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 170 strikeouts in 133 innings over 23 starts. While the Pirates offense left much to be desired, Pittsburgh heads into the offseason with the guts of a good, young rotation already in house, not to mention Mitch Keller, 28, and Bailey Falter, 27. Dennis Santana was a revelation in the bullpen after the Pirates claimed him off waivers from the Yankees in June. Santana, 28, had a 2.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 50 strikeouts in 39 appearances with the Pirates. Plus, they still have Bryan Reynolds, who’s had at least a 109 wRC+ in five of six seasons in his career.
What Went Wrong
The Pirates’ offense was one of the worst in the league. Pittsburgh had only four hitters with at least a 100 wRC+ (min. 200 plate appearances) in Joey Bart (121), Reynolds (118), Oneil Cruz (110) and Andrew McCutchen (105). Ke’Bryan Hayes hurt his back and had the worst year of his career. After hitting 15 home runs with a .182 ISO in 2023, Hayes’ power evaporated as he hit four home runs with an .058 ISO in 396 plate appearances this year. Former No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft Henry Davis was a complete flop after an encouraging spring training. Davis hit .144 with one home run, an .067 ISO and 36.9 percent strikeout percentage in 122 plate appearances. Jack Suwinski was also a major bust. After hitting 26 home runs with a .230 ISO, 74 RBI and 112 wRC+ in 2023, he hit nine home runs with a .142 ISO, 26 RBI and 62 wRC+ this year. In the bullpen, former All-Star closer David Bednar fell apart. After making the All-Star team in 2022 and 2023, Bednar collapsed with a 5.77 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and seven blown saves in 30 opportunities. By the end of the season, Bednar had been removed from the closer role, Suwinski was in the minors while Hayes and Davis were on the injured list. Cruz struggled so much defensively at shortstop that he was moved to the outfield. Bryan De La Cruz, who was acquired at the trade deadline, hit .200/.220/.294 in 44 games with Pittsburgh. Woof.
Fantasy Slants
Next stop Cy Young award? Skenes had a dominant rookie season that will likely have him going off the board in the first round of 2025 fantasy drafts. The only part of his game lacking in any way was the volume. Skenes threw a total of 160 1/ 3 innings including his time in the minors this year and went past the sixth inning in only four of his 23 major league starts. General manager Ben Cherington has told reporters the Pirates aren’t planning on any sort of limits for Skenes in 2025. Unleashed Skenes will be in the argument for first pitcher off the board in 2025 drafts along with Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom.
Can Bednar regain the closer role? Cherington has suggested it’s a possibility for Bednar, who’s arbitration eligible this offseason. Despite his poor 2024, it wouldn’t be surprising for the Pirates to go back to Bednar in the ninth inning. He was an excellent reliever with a 2.25 ERA from 2021-23. Pittsburgh also doesn’t have many proven relief options under team control other than Colin Holderman, who had a 3.16 ERA this year. Aroldis Chapman, who had 14 saves this year, will hit free agency this offseason.
Is this Cruz’ floor? Cruz improved quite a bit against left-handed pitching, which helped boost his overall fantasy production. After hitting .158 with three home runs and a .148 ISO in 111 plate appearances against left-handed pitching in 2022, he hit .224 with six home runs and a .196 ISO in 154 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this year. Cruz is never going to be a great average hitter because he strikes out too much overall, but if he can replicate his production against lefties in 2024 in future seasons, it gives his overall line a boost. This year, it was the difference between hitting .259 and being a real drag in the average category as well as the additional power helping him clear 20 home runs for the first time in his career. Cruz also stole 20 bases for the first time in his career. Add it all up and this is quite the fantasy profile, though it remains to be seen if this season represents his floor or ceiling.
The Pirates enter the offseason with the 19th ranked farm system, according to FanGraphs. Without much help on the way coming from their minor league system, Pittsburgh astutely traded for some outside help at the deadline. The Pirates acquired infielder Nick Yorke from the Red Sox. Yorke was hitting .310/.408/.490 at Triple-A with the Red Sox and hit .355/.431/.507 at Triple-A with the Pirates. He went 8-for-37 (.216) with two home runs and five RBI in 11 games in his first taste of the major leagues with Pittsburgh at the end of the season, but with his strong minor league track record the Pirates would be wise to hand the 22-year-old the second base job going into next year. Yorke could eventually be a plus average contributor after adjusting to major league pitching.
Key Free Agents
Aroldis Chapman, Andrew McCutchen, and Yasmani Grandal
Team Needs
A lot. The Pirates need to add hitting. We’re talking about an offense that’s going to miss 38-year-old McCutchen if he chooses to retire. Even with returning players like Reynolds, Cruz, Bart and Hayes, this lineup is short. Davis will probably get another shot at sharing catching duties with Bart. Suwinski, who isn’t arbitration eligible until 2026, might also get another chance at regular playing time. Another bat is unlikely to come from their minor league system as top prospect Termarr Johnson, 20, is still years away. With even more young starting pitchers ready for the majors like Mike Burrows and Braxton Ashcraft, dealing a pitcher for offensive help this offseason would make sense, especially when considering the Pirates are unlikely to spend much in free agency. Seeing if another team wants to buy high on Ortiz, who isn’t a free agent until 2030, is an option. Plus, the bullpen could also use another arm. Pittsburgh has some solid bullpen pieces in Santana and Holderman, but no real backup plan at closer if Bednar were to struggle again.
