Spring Training is wrapping up, and we’ve been inundated with stories about pitchers who have come to camp with new pitches. However, instead of just celebrating that some pitchers are throwing new pitches, we want to look at what the pitcher already does well and what his pitch mix is missing. That’s the premise of the FSWA-award-winning series Pitchers with New Pitches (and Should We Care). In this series, I take the simple premise that not every new pitch should be greeted with praise. A new pitch, like a shiny new toy, might be exciting on its own, but it also needs to complement what a pitcher already has and fill a meaningful void in his current pitch mix.
We want to check and see if he has any splits issues. We want to see what his best pitch(es) is and see if this new pitch would complement that. Then we want to see what this new pitch type is generally used for (control, called strikes, etc.) and see if that is something this pitcher needs help with. When we can also see the pitch in action, then we want to look at the shape and command and see if it’s actually any good. Once we’ve done all that, we can decide if the pitch is a good addition or not.
Luckily for you, I’ve done all that work already. After some brief analysis of the pitcher and what role this new pitch might play, I’ll give you a simple verdict as to whether or not we should care about this new toy or not. You can check out Part One here if you missed that and also Part Two here and Part Three here.
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This is my fourth season doing this series, and it’s one of my favorite things to write. I hope that you enjoy it. It’s also important to note that this is the first time many of these pitchers have thrown these new pitches in a meaningful game, so the overall quality and consistency may get better over time. I’ve tried to take that into account in my analysis. We should also note (for this article) that I will be including pitchers who have reworked or revamped a pitch to make it “new” even if it was technically a pitch they already threw.
Just a special shoutout here to Alex Tran, who has been putting together a list of pitch mix changes that he shared in the Pitcher List discord channel. Having one document with all the projected changes is a massive help.
Zack Wheeler - Splitter
Even with a pitcher as talented as Zack Wheeler, we need to start any discussion about a new pitch in the same way we’ve done for all pitchers before. We need to identify what weakness, if any, Zack Wheeler has.
OK, so a 3.61 ERA isn’t elite but also isn’t really an issue. A 14.7% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) is really solid. His pitch mix grades out incredibly well. He’s been a workhorse with innings. Oh, OK, he had a 37.6% Ideal Contract Rate (ICR), which is Barrels + Solid Contact + Flares/Burners divided by batted ball events. That was the 68th percentile. That’s not bad but also not great.
As we dig in more, we see that his cutter, sweeper, and curveball all had ICR’s of 43% or higher to lefties. Considering that’s 47% of his arsenal to lefties, that’s not ideal.
If we dig into his splits, we see that borne out a bit with a .194/.235/.313 slash line against righties, which is a .548 OPS, but a .261/.310/.412 slash line to lefties, which is a .722 OPS. Again, it’s not a major issue, but we’re picking nits with one of the best pitchers in baseball here, and he does seem to give up harder contact to lefties, so would a splitter help with that?
Well, yes and no.
The splitter would certainly be a pitch that Wheeler could use to attack lefties since it would dive away from them. In fact, according to Lance Brozdowski, of the eight splitters Wheeler has thrown this spring, they’ve averaged 86.7 mph with 6-7” vertical break and 12-13” arm-side movement. Lance points out that those readings compare well to Shelby Miller’s splitter from last season, which had a 121 FanGraphs Stuff+, so that’s intriguing to us.
As is the idea that Wheeler intends to bring this in specifically to attack lefties: “If I can take care lefties like I do righties, hopefully that’ll take care of itself. I just need it to be consistent and be able to throw [the splitter] for strikes and throw it for a chase, get the velo difference that I need and this is the time to really work on it.”
I’m happy to hear that Wheeler mentioned throwing it for strikes too because the splitter tends to be a pitch that succeeds most by dropping out of the strike zone and getting swings and misses. Added swing and miss would be great for Wheeler, but he needs to limit hard contact, which means he needs a pitch that isn’t just a chase pitch but can also be a pitch that would create poor swing decisions among left-handed batters. That could be because they get on top of the splitter or it could be because they now expect the splitter and get jammed by the cutter.
This is exactly what his catcher, J.T. Realmuto mentioned: “Just to have something that’s not hard and coming into a lefty,” Realmuto said. “Pretty much everything he throws is angled coming in – whether it’s a slider, a curveball, a cutter, even his four-seam cuts in a little bit. Having something that goes the other direction…is just going to help him keep the lefties from sitting and spinning and cheating off of him.”
So there we go. He can get the lefties looking or thinking away and even if the splitter itself isn’t elite, just having the lefties thinking about it or protecting against it can make his other pitches, which all cut in on them, play up a bit.
However, the new splitter also looks good and seems to tunnel well with his fastball.
Zack Wheeler, Fastball & Splitter Overlay.
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 11, 2024
That's gonna be a problem. pic.twitter.com/0ucsowYRCg
This all seems to be exactly what we’d like from Wheeler, but we also know that Spring Training is a time when pitchers experiment and so even Wheeler himself said, “I’ll probably throw a lot of them in spring – it may not translate over to the season.” Well, eight certainly isn’t a lot, so that’s not great. However, as Realmuto points out, “He came in with the sweeper last year and was good at it. There was a little bit of a learning curve, but he got better and better with it as the season went along that eventually it became one of his go-to pitches.”
VERDICT: MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL. Listen, nothing is going to make a MAJOR impact with Wheeler when he’s already one of the top five starters in fantasy. The splitter could help with his minor split issues against lefties and raise him up a touch, but it’s not going to have him contending with Spencer Strider. In that sense, this is a good pitch for Wheeler, and we love that he’s adding it, but it won’t meaningfully change your ranking for him.
Joe Musgrove - Sweeper
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Joe Musgrove, and many people seem to be forgetting about him. He got a late start to the year in 2023 after dropping a weight on his foot and then he pushed himself to come back too soon which may have led to the shoulder injury that ended his season. So when we look at what weaknesses Musgrove needs to account for, we’ll take into account what he seemed to be trying to change last year and what we know about his arsenal from years past.
Historically speaking, Musgrove has always filled up the strike zone with a deep arsenal of pitches. His CSW rates are high as a result, but his swinging strike rates dipped pretty significantly in 2022. He had seemed to make a small bounceback last year, but even that wasn’t close to his previous levels. Still, he has never given up hard contact with a 35% ICR in 2022 and a 33.5% ICR last year.
Interestingly, last year and in 2022, Musgrove struggled a bit with right-handed hitters. It hadn’t been much of an issue in years past, but in the last two seasons, righties have hit for a higher batting average and slugging percentage and also struck out less. Last season alone, he had a 27.6% strikeout rate versus lefties but a 20.6% mark against righties. So while Musgrove doesn’t really need much, it seems like he would benefit from a swing-and-miss offering against righties.
Enter the sweeper.
Earlier in the spring, Musgrove spoke directly about the reason for including the pitch in his arsenal:
After throwing 64 pitches in his start today on the backfields of Peoria…Joe Musgrove talks about his new slider, facing Manny Machado, and feedback that Machado gave him during his outing: pic.twitter.com/FmryeWaEQS
— 97.3 The Fan (@973TheFanSD) March 2, 2024
He spoke more in-depth about it in an article with the San Diego Union-Tribune, saying “Everything I knew about that old slider is very different from this new one as far as where I’m starting in the zone to make it appealing, how to locate to both sides of the plate. It’s still a slider, it’s just a little different grip on it.” As he mentioned above, Musgrove’s plan of attack with this new slider will differ by team and hitter. “I think certain hitters will tell us when we need to throw the sweeper. Some hitters, it will be better to throw my traditional slider. I’d like to have both options available, just keep touching on both of them to have both of them sharp.”
Musgrove’s “old slider” is about 82 mph with 12.3 inches of horizontal break and 7.4 inches of drop. While we don’t yet have much information on the sweeper Musgrove is throwing, the average sweeper sits about 84 mph and has 15 inches of horizontal break with less vertical drop. Musgrove’s slider is already slower than the league average but because it has more drop than a typical slider, the sweeper would theoretically give him a different movement profile even though he’d have just a small velocity difference.
Against right-handed hitters last year, Musgrove’s “old slider” had a solid 18.6% SwStr% and a 41% ICR that was slightly worse than the league average. So altogether it’s not a terrible pitch. However, he had no other real swing-and-miss pitch against righties. His change-up did have a 25% SwStr%, but he throws it just 6% of the time to righties and a right-on-right changeup is never going to be a super reliable swing-and-miss offering. His four-seam was the next highest SwStr% pitch to righties with a 13.4% mark. That’s not great, so he certainly needs another offering here. We hope it can be the sweeper but we have very little information on it right now.
VERDICT: POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL. Musgrove is a solid pitcher. We forget that because we haven’t seen him throw and then we focus too much on spring ERA which doesn’t matter when we know pitchers are actively working on new pitches and trying different things. We know exactly how Musgrove plans to use the sweeper, which is great news; however, we don’t know much about its shape or how often he’ll use it. All of that makes it hard to trust, but it will certainly be something I’m watching.
Joe Ryan - Sinker (plus improved Splitter)
Joe Ryan is the consummate tinkerer and even he has said, “It’s fun to just see how different guys around the league use different pitches and it’s always fun to keep working on stuff.” We love to hear pitchers who aren’t willing to rest on the laurels of a good season or past success and are always looking to improve. We certainly like to hear that from Ryan, since his season kind of fell apart at the midway point.
Prior to June 15th, Ryan had a 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 27.3% strikeout rate in 77.2 innings. However, from June 15th on, he had a 6.00 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with a 31% strikeout rate in 84 innings. Now, part of that was due to him battling some injuries, but it was also due to him losing the feel for his splitter, which he introduced last season. The pitch had a 13% SwStr% and 3% barrel rate in the first half of the year while posting a 1.32 Defense Independent ERA (dERA), which is not a perfect stat but hints at the overall effectiveness of the pitch. Yet, in the second half of the year, he posted a 9.8% SwStr% on the pitch with a 12.7% barrel rate allowed and an 8.88 dERA. That’s a stark decline.
Considering Ryan was throwing his four-seam and splitter a combined 80% of the time, having the splitter fall apart put far too much pressure on his four-seam fastball. While his strikeout rate did go up in the second half as he used his sweeper more often, the sweeper was really an all-or-nothing pitch that missed bats but also gave up a 50% ICR. Yikes.
So, what does Ryan need to do?
Well, overall last year he gave up too much hard contact with a 40% ICR and had a bigger issue against righties with an 11.6% barrel rate allowed to right-handed hitters. His sweeper allowed him to post strong SwStr% against them, but he was too boom-or-bust against right-handed hitters. He needs something to mitigate hard contact against them and perhaps a breaking ball that’s more consistent than the sweeper and will give up less contact.
The new sinker can certainly help with the hard contact portion. It also helps that the pitch isn’t really new to Ryan since he threw a two-seamer growing up and is allegedly using a grip that is only a slight variation on that previous pitch.
Ryan threw his four-seam 57% of the time to righties and it allowed a 47% ICR. It missed a ton of bats because he hides the ball well and has elite Vertical Approach Angle (VAA) on the pitch. He also throws it up in the zone 66.7% of the time to righties, which we love. So he doesn’t need to scrap the pitch, he simply needs something to keep hitters off of it. The sweeper wasn’t a great pitch and also had a loopier shape which meant it didn’t mix well with the four-seam and hitters were able to pick it up quickly. Thus, when they were looking fastball and got it, they were able to do damage.
Adding in a sinker gives him a pitch that will be released out of the same arm slot and approach the hitter on a similar plane, but with slightly different movement. That should generate weak contact early in the count, which is exactly what Ryan needs and wants it to do, especially if he can keep it up and in on righties.
Since everything works off of Ryan’s four-seam he would benefit from a pitch mix that tunnels well but has different movement profiles as they approach the hitter. The sinker and splitter would be those pitches, especially since he is now throwing the splitter almost four miles per hour harder. Ryan has made clear changes to both his slider and splitter this year, throwing both pitches significantly harder. Last year, Ryan threw his sweeper 12% of the time and his harder slider just 4% of the time; however, this spring he has been leaning on his harder slider more and throwing it almost three mph harder. He’s also now throwing his splitter almost four mph harder.
So what are the effects of the velocity change? Well, the harder slider moves less overall and while it’s not a typical bullet or gyro slider, the lack of sweep or loop allows it to pair better with his fastball-heavy arsenal since, as we discussed above, most of his pitches are relatively hard and straight out of the hand. Ryan’s harder splitter also now seems to have more horizontal bite toward the arm side and a touch less drop since he’s throwing it almost 88 mph now so there’s less time for gravity to work. In his last outing, he had a 40% whiff rate on that splitter, and the pitch has looked more dynamic this spring.
Generally speaking, Ryan throws a lot of pitches for strikes with a 63% strike rate on all of his pitches, except his sweeper. His sweeper had a 49% strike rate and also had a 14% mistake rate, which means 14% of his sweepers were poorly executed and right in the middle of the plate. That’s certainly not something you want, so making that pitch more of a peripheral option to give hitters a different look and induce some swings-and-misses is a good choice and one that could prevent some of the meltdown starts we saw last year.
However, the big problem here is how often Ryan will use the sinker. As you can see above, he threw it just four times in his last start, and he’s even admitted that he’s not sure how big a part of his arsenal it will be. “I think it’s a great pitch to add to the arsenal,” said Ryan. “I don’t know how much we’re going to use it. I don’t know what that usage looks like throughout the season, but it’s a fun pitch to have in my back pocket to keep hitters off balance and it feels really good to throw.”
VERDICT: POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL. I love that Ryan has tweaked his splitter and slider. That alone does make me more interested in him than I was when I felt like he had no consistent offerings besides his four-seam. Theoretically, I’d like him even more if this sinker were to become an actual frequent offering for him; however, it’s unclear if that will be the case. As a result, I like Ryan but there is still some untapped ceiling that he could reach if that sinker helps to mitigate hard contact.
Gavin Stone - (Two-seamer and new cutter)
After a rough MLB debut in 2023, Gavin Stone has come back into our lives thanks to a blistering spring and injuries to Walker Buehler and Emmet Sheehan. Stone has now claimed the fifth starter spot in the Dodgers rotation and has looked like a different pitcher in March. Part of that is because he kind of is.
Before we even get into his new pitch mix, we need to acknowledge that Stone made another major adjustment when he discovered that he was tipping his pitches last year. “People could see when I wasn’t throwing the changeup,” Stone said. “Because my arm would move just to get to other pitches.” Considering the change-up is by far Stone’s best pitch, hitters knowing it was coming was problematic because they could simply lay off of it when it started down in the zone.
As a result, Stone had just a 7% called strike rate on his change-up and a 50% ICR. You shouldn’t give up that much hard contact on your best pitch, but if hitters know when it’s coming then it’s going to be a lot easier for them to hit.
So cleaning that up is one major improvement for Stone, but he is also now sitting 96 mph with his fastball, which is up from last year and in part, according to Stone, because he added 10 pounds of muscle in the offseason. Additionally, after returning to Triple-A last year, Stone worked with pitching coaches Doug Mathis and Justin DeFratus on his mechanics and tweaked his arsenal to add a cutter and a two-seam fastball similar to the one he threw at the University of Central Arkansas.
Gavin Stone, 97mph Fastball & 87mph Changeup. pic.twitter.com/e2otkBfdiI
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 18, 2024
But before we get to whether or not those are good pitches for him, we need to see what he struggled with during his brief MLB debut last year.
It was just 31 innings, but Stone gave up a ton of hard contact, with a 46% ICR, and didn’t really miss bats with anything other than his change-up. He also got few called strikes and threw inside to both righties and lefties at a below-average rate. While that leads to a lot of things Stone could improve on, the biggest things appear to be another swing-and-miss pitch beside his change-up, pitches he can locate inside, and pitches that will allow him to induce less hard contact.
The cutter and two-seamer could easily check those last two boxes. The cutter now replaces Stone’s bigger slider and has more velocity and less overall movement. However, he can get it in on the hands of left-handed hitters to reduce hard contact and keep them off the plate, which will make his change-up more effective away from lefties. The two-seamer can also be thrown in on the hands of right-handed hitters, which should keep them honest and also create more early strikes and early weak contact. Those two variations off of his four-seamer will also create more deception in his pitch mix overall, which is never a bad thing.
The new pitch mix should allow Stone to attack the edges of the strike zone, picking up more called strikes and setting up his changeup better. That should undoubtedly be an improvement for Stone; however, my concern remains about his strikeout upside. I generally don’t love relying on pitchers who feature a changeup as their primary put-away pitch, and the only other pitch Stone had that posted a SwStr% over 11% was his slider. If he’s now scrapped his slider for a cutter, I worry that he doesn’t have a true swing-and-miss pitch for right-handed hitters.
VERDICT: MEANINGFULLY IMPACTFUL. Look, Stone was an afterthought about a month ago, so the fact that he has looked as good as he has is meaningfully impactful. He’s now firmly on the radar in 12-team leagues and deeper, and I think he will be less volatile than he was last year. However, I’m not sure if this new pitch mix will give him the strikeout upside to be a true breakout starter in the way guys like A.J. Puk, Reese Olson, or Luis Gil could be.
