The Orioles haven’t made the big splash this offseason that many hoped for just yet, but they have added some quality depth pieces to a group that made the playoffs last year, and another helper was added Monday night.
Right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano and the Baltimore Orioles are in agreement on a one-year, $13 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Sugano, 35, was one of the best pitchers in Japanese baseball this year, posting a 1.67 ERA and walking 16 against 111 strikeouts over 156.2 innings.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 17, 2024
Let’s take a look at how Sugano helps the Orioles, and the potential impact this can make from a fantasy perspective.
How good has Sugano been in Japan?
It’s not hyperbolic at all to say that Sugano has been one of the best pitchers in Japan in his time with the Yomiuri Giants. Over his dozen years in the league with the Giants, he’s forged a record of 136-75, an ERA of 2.43, a WHIP over 1.03 and a 4.57 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s been the Central League Most Valuable Player three times in his career, and is also a three-time winner of the Eiji Sawamura Award; Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award in Major League Baseball.
Those plaudits are nice, but obviously what matters now for his MLB career is what he’s done lately. Well, what he did last year was finish with a 1.67 ERA, an 111/16 K/BB and 0.95 WHIP with a 15-3 record over 24 starts and 156 1/3 innings. That’s the second best ERA of his career, so it’s safe to say that Sugano was still effective in his final year in the NBP. Effective is really quite the understatement.
What has made Sugano so effective?
Command, command, and also command. Sugano pounds the strike zone with his arsenal, and has never had a walk-rate above 2.1 per nine innings in his illustrious career. He’s not just a guy who fills the zone, however; Sugano puts pitches where he wants pitches to be places, and rarely misses his spot with any of his pitches.
And, Sugano has a lot of pitches to not his his spots with. He’ll show a fastball, a a sinker, a cutter, a slider, and a curveball. The whole kitchen sink, as they used to say. The best of these pitches is his cuter, but all of his off-speed pitches get solid grades.
This link gives you a detailed look at his pitch data in 2024:
When you can throw that many pitches for just not just strikes, but quality ones, you’re going to have a good time. Usually, anyway.
What are the reasons for concern?
As impressive — if not dominant — as Sugano has been, there’s a reason he’s taking a one-year deal, and it’s not only because he turned 35-year-old in October.
Sugano does not miss bats at the same level of a Roki Sasaki nor a Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That’s in large part because he’s willing to pitch to contact — more on that in second — but also because he doesn’t have velocity that would rank among the best in the sport. Sugano’s four-seam fastball averaged 92 mph in 2024, and it’s unlikely that mark is going to go up at his age. He’s had one season of averaging more than a strikeout an inning, and that was back in 2016. Over the last two seasons, his K/9 has been at 6.3 and 6.4, respectfully
Strikeouts matter; not only in helping pitchers, you know, get people out, but they’re an important figure in fantasy as well as one of the standard categories.
Has he faced MLB hitters before, and how did he do if he did?
He did, but it’s been a little while. Sugano was unable to participate in the 2023 World Baseball Classic due to injury, but he was a major helper in 2017 for Japan. He tied Kodai Senga for the strikeout lead in that tournament, and he was sensational in the semifinals against Team USA with six innings and six strikeouts while allowing just an unearned run.
Again, this was seven years ago, but it does give you an idea of how Sugano’s stuff can work even without an elite heater.
Where does he slide into the Baltimore rotation and how does his home park suit him?
Some of this depends on if Corbin Burnes comes back. If Burnes returns to the land of crabcakes, he’s obviously the ace. There have been rumors of Baltimore being interesting in a reunion with Jack Flaherty as well as a replacement for Burnes, and he would likely pitch at the top of the rotation in that scenario as well.
In any scenario, Sugano is not going to pitch at the top of the Baltimore group. Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin could get the nod above him as well, so it’s likely Sugano will be the third or fourth starter for the O’s to begin 2025. That doesn’t really matter, outside of it possible meaning he makes a start or two less than some pitchers you might be considering.
As for the park, it’s worth noting that Baltimore is making changes to the left-field fence to make it more advantageous — or more accurately just rectifying an overcorrection with the previous adjustment — for hitters, but it shouldn’t play a major factor. Even with a mediocre fastball in terms of velocity, he’s a pitcher that keeps the ball on the ground with a 51.1 percent grounder rate.
So, is Sugano someone fantasy managers should be targeting?
Yes. Just not particularly early. There are exceptions to every rule, and Sugano is one who is an exception to the rule that you shouldn’t go after hurlers who don’t miss many bats. You don’t have the level of success Sugano has had with good luck on BABIP; not for as many years as he’s done it. Is the NBP as good of league as MLB? Of course not, but there are really, really good players in Japan, and to say he’s been one of the very best is quite the understatement. I would be drafting him more as my SP3 — or ideally my SP4 — than someone who is leading my fantasy rotation, but I’d much rather draft Sugano early and cut bait later than miss out on him. The fact Baltimore is going to give him plenty of win chances with that young, talented lineup doesn’t hurt, either.
