We have gone from absolutely zero hope at the end of last week to at least a glimmer of hope heading into the final week of the 2024 season. It’s still unlikely that we wind up in the money, but at least we put ourselves into a position to try with a strong showing in Week 26. Need to replicate that next week.
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Hitting Review
The power production dried up when we really needed it most, which is pretty disappointing. Overall it was a down week for the offense, but not a complete disaster.
The catching position is what we have come to expect. William Contreras was terrific again – hitting .421 with a homer, four RBI and a stolen base. Jake Rogers continues to struggle as our second catcher, but at least hit .286 with an RBI.
It was a strange week for Paul Goldschmidt – and one that wasn’t helpful to us at all. He hit just .167 with one RBI, yet he still managed to score six times and steal a pair of bases.
The same can be said for Xavier Edwards. He swiped three bags, but did so while hitting a paltry .182 and didn’t drive in a run.
Ezequiel Tovar had one of his good weeks, hitting .346 with a pair of long balls and a team-leading seven RBI. He has been a pretty streaky player all season, so let’s hope that he has more of this in store for the season’s final week.
Jose Ramirez continued to do studly things, hitting .321 with a pair of long balls, five RBI and a stolen base for good measure.
Tyler O’Neill carried our power department last week, then went completely empty this week – going 0-for-15 with a run scored and nothing else before missing the final two games with a minor injury.
It was a down one for Randy Arozarena as well, who had just three hits (.150) and one RBI.
Jurickson Profar continued the elite production that he has been providing the entire season, hitting .429 with a pair of homers, three RBI, five runs scored and a stolen base.
Jarren Duran swiped a pair of bases and drove in three runs. Hopefully he’s getting hot again at just the right time.
Kerry Carpenter slugged a pair of solo homers on Sunday to salvage his week, as he hadn’t driven in a single run until that point.
Anthony Rizzo got the full week at corner infield for us and didn’t do much with it, hitting .200 with two RBI.
Jose Tena continues to impress, hitting .296 with a pair of RBI and a stolen base while seeing everyday action for the Nationals.
Grant McCray and Trevor Larnach platooned in the utility spot, with McCray contributing a pair of useless steals while Larnach plated a pair of runs over the weekend.
We came in a little short on at-bats with just 292 for the week. O’Neill missing a few games, Carpenter sitting against left-handers and Rogers being only a part-time player were the main reasons.
We crushed our weekly stolen base target (+5) which is meaningless at this stage and also hit our average goal (+0.008) which is actually helpful. We missed in runs (-4.2), home runs (-2.8) and RBI (-7.2).
For the season, we are still running a surplus in runs (+42) and stolen bases (+16). We’re behind the number in homers (-13) and RBI (-79) and we’re just two ticks behind the target in batting average.
Pitching Review
We knew that if we were going to have any shot at salvaging this season, we were going to need a big week from our pitching staff. We rolled out two closers in Josh Hader and FAAB addition Luke Weaver while sitting Alexis Diaz, giving us seven starters and a total of 10 probable starts.
It all started on Monday night as the first of our three potential doubles, Jonathan Cannon, took the mound against the Angels. We know that we can’t expect wins out of White Sox hurlers, but it was still a chance to pile up some strikeouts. Despite allowing four runs on five walks+hits over 6 2/3 innings, Cannon indeed earned a victory and struck out seven batters in the process. We were off and running.
On Tuesday we had FAAB addition Brandon Williamson take the mound against the Braves for the first of his two starts. He wound up giving up three runs on five walks+hits in just 1 1/3 innings against the Braves and exited with an elbow injury that’s going to require Tommy John surgery. So a pile of ratio damage, and now we’re down to nine starts for the week instead of 10.
Shane Baz also took the first of his two starts on Tuesday, firing seven innings of two-run baseball in a victory over the Red Sox. Baz punched out six in that brilliant effort.
Josh Hader also stepped up on Tuesday, picking up a victory and a pair of strikeouts in 1 1/3 innings against the Padres. That gives us three wins through three starts on the week.
On Wednesday it was Bowden Francis attempting to keep the good times rolling. The right-hander pitched well – allowing just two runs on six walks+hits over six innings – but it wasn’t enough to earn a victory over the Rangers. Francis also chipped in six punchouts.
In the final game on Wednesday evening, new closer addition Luke Weaver worked 1 2/3 innings against the Mariners with four strikeouts and picked up a victory. Not the conventional way to do it, but that’s now four wins through four starts on the week. We’ll absolutely take that.
Clarke Schmidt took the ball on Thursday against the Mariners and like Francis before him he delivered a solid effort – one earned run on six hits over five innings with seven strikeouts – but he also was denied a victory.
Hader worked another inning on Thursday night and tallied our first save of the week, needing just seven pitches to work a perfect inning that included a strikeout.
On Friday it was Corbin Burnes taking the hill against the Tigers. While I personally wanted the Tigers to pull out a victory in that spot, Burnes delivered another dominant performance with eight strikeouts over seven shutout innings to earn our fifth victory of the week.
Weaver also tallied his first save on Friday night, striking out three batters in his lone inning of work.
On Saturday it was Walker Buehler’s turn to take the mound against the Rockies. He wasn’t great – giving up four runs over 5 1/3 innings in a losing effort – but he did put up a solid WHIP of 1.13 and racked up nine strikeouts in the process. I’ll allow it.
The White Sox shifted their rotation around, moving Cannon back to Monday, meaning that we would be down to just one two-start pitcher for the week instead of the three that we had planned.
So it all came down to Baz’s second start on Sunday. He did all that he could do, allowing just one run on four hits and a walk over six innings while striking out six batters, and exited with a 2-1 lead and in line for a victory. Unfortunately, the Rays’ bullpen was unable to hang on for him.
We then had the misfortune of Hader’s outing on Sunday. The Astros’ closer came on with a one-run lead to protect in the ninth inning and suffered an absolute disaster – giving up four runs on five walks+hits while recording only one out. Most of the ratio gains that we had made during the week were completely wiped out in one fell swoop.
Thankfully, Weaver tried to get us back on track on Sunday afternoon, recording the final five outs against the Athletics to earn his second save of the week. He even picked up another pair of strikeouts – bringing his total to nine for the week.
Overall on the pitching side, it was a good week – but would have been much better without the Hader blowup on Sunday. We hit four of our weekly targets there – strikeouts (+10.4), wins (+1.3), saves (+0.9) and WHIP (+0.148) while our only miss was a small one in ERA (-0.133).
For the season-long numbers, our lone surplus is in saves where we are +1. We’re chasing a laughable amount in strikeouts (-120) and wins (-16) and we’re still way behind in both ratio categories.
FAAB Plan
We have just $3 left for this final period, so we aren’t going to be able to do much. Each MLB team only plays six games in the final week of the season, so two-start pitchers are extremely hard to come by. We still need to try to maximize our starts, but the options are very limited and will probably go above our means.
The best options are Jack Kochanowicz and Tanner Houck, each of whom should go for well more than the $2 bid or so that we’ll be able to muster. I also have interest in Tyler Holton who is approaching 100 innings on the season in his bullpen ace role for the Tigers. He’s got a shot at a victory or a save next week and should contribute 4+ strikeouts. The final pitching option is Michael McGreevy who is scheduled to pitch twice for the Cardinals.
As far as bats go, Mitch Garver gets a bunch of left-handed pitchers and could be an upgrade over Jake Rogers – or at least would give us another option at the catcher position with Contreras also banged up. Ozzie Albies is a great option, but he’ll go above our means. Sam Hilliard, Eric Wagaman, Noelvi Marte, Joey Gallo, Kyle Stowers and a host of others will be on the waterfall someplace.
That’s pretty much all there is to it. We’ll drop Brandon Williamson and Casey Mize for whatever we can get, perhaps a third drop if they’re all from $1 players. Just trying to set up ourselves as best as we can for the final week of the regular season.
FAAB Results
It’s a bit anticlimactic for being the final FAAB period of the season, but there’s really not a whole lot to unpack here.
Tanner Houck went above our means as expected and pulled in the week’s highest bid at $10 ($2). We were sadly the runner-up there.
Ozzie Albies also went higher than we were able to at $6 ($3). Same for our second pitching target in Jack Kochanowicz at $3 ($2).
We landed Tyler Holton for $2 (unopposed) and picked up a sketchy double in Michael McGreevy for $1 (unopposed).
Hindsight being 20/20, it would have been nice to get Holton for $1 and be able to add Mitch Garver for $1 as well, but I really wanted Holton and thought that he might attract a $1 bid elsewhere.
Looking Ahead
One final week of lineups to set. One last chance to make the charge that we need.
We’ll start out again by looking over the standings to see where it’s possible to gain or lose ground, as that should drive our decisions.
On the offensive side, we’re towering over the field in runs and stolen bases and won’t fall out of first place in either category. We aren’t in danger of losing any points in home runs, as we’re 21 clear of the team behind us. There is a team just one ahead of us though, so that’s a point that is very much in play. The next team up is +13 though, so it’s just one point that we’re fighting for there.
The RBI category continues to be a battleground. There are two teams behind us that could easily pass us up if we have another down week there, as they are just eight and 10 RBI behind respectively. There’s also a team that is just nine RBI ahead of us, giving us another point to possibly earn.
We’re in an unfortunate spot in batting average as we just gained the only point possible on Sunday and now have to hold onto it. Our .2569 is barely ahead of the .2568 of the team that’s chasing us in the category. It would be very difficult for us to move up or down besides that one point, so nothing that we can gain, but we need to protect average so we don’t lose that one point.
On the pitching side of things, we need a little bit of everything, so finding the right balance will be tricky.
Strikeouts are still a clear battleground. There is a team right on our heels just two behind us and it’s critical that we maintain that point. There are also teams that are 14 and 15 strikeouts ahead of us that we could conceivably catch with a strong week.
Same story in wins. There is a team just one win behind us and we need to hang onto that point. There’s another that is three back. There’s also a team just one victory ahead of us and it would be really nice to gain there.
It’s unlikely that we can gain anything in saves, as the one team ahead of us is +4 heading into the final week. We could certainly lose though, as our closest competitor in the category is just one save behind us. He continues to roll out two closers weekly (Raisel Iglesias and Mason Miller).
In addition to needing to maximize starts though, there are very real ratio concerns. We aren’t going to gain anything in ERA, but we could certainly lose a point if we aren’t careful. We are at 4.091 and there’s another team right on our heels at 4.100.
The WHIP category is even tighter and will be the place that we make our mark if we are somehow able to come back in this thing. We enter the week at 1.220 with no one close enough behind us to catch up. Here’s the thing though, the team above us is at 1.217. That point is very much in play. The team above them is at 1.213. That’s possible as well. Then there are two teams at 1.207 and another at 1.205. It’s a tall ask, sure, but pitching decisions should be skewed toward WHIP if we can help it.
Starting on the pitching side, we have 13 healthy arms to choose from as we make our final push. One of those is Alexis Diaz who only gets five games for the week. He’s not a major strikeout threat when he does pitch and he certainly hasn’t helped our ratios this season. He seems like an easy sit.
Michael McGreevy is lined up for two starts – but being the final week of the season there’s no guarantee that he actually goes twice. The first one is also a potential disaster outing as he’s set to take on the Rockies at Coors Field. I’m still leaning towards using him, but it’s not as clear cut as I had hoped it would be.
Ryan Pepiot is lined up for two starts tentatively, with the first coming against the Tigers in Detroit on Tuesday. He’s coming off of one of his best starts of the season with 12 punchouts on our bench last week, so even if he winds up having the second start pushed, I think he has to be in.
Corbin Burnes has been great over his last two starts, but he draws a tough matchup against the Yankees (and Gerrit Cole) in New York. It’s also possible he gets limited in that start as the O’s want him ready for the first game of the postseason. Again, not a clear cut choice.
The Yankees shuffled their rotation around as they look to get set up for the postseason and now Clarke Schmidt is lined up to pitch twice. He’s in for sure.
Jonathan Cannon is unlikely to win. He was picked up last week via FAAB for his two-step, which wound up being just one good start against the Angels. He draws the Angels again on Tuesday (this time at home) and would then line up to take on the Tigers in the season finale on Sunday. No guarantee he gets the second start, but he’s probably in?
Shane Baz has been terrific down the stretch, but he’ll draw a tough matchup against the Red Sox at Fenway in his final start. That doesn’t seem ideal.
The Blue Jays have been cagey about their rotation for the final week, so I’m not sure when exactly Bowden Francis is going to pitch. It sounds like he’ll see the Red Sox either on Monday or Tuesday. He has been unbelievable since we added him – including seven shutout innings against the Red Sox in late August. As long as I get confirmation that he’s actually pitching, he’ll be in there.
We can’t sit Luke Weaver after the monster week that he just delivered. It’s difficult to consider sitting Josh Hader, even after Sunday’s debacle.
Tyler Holton has been a monster for the Tigers down the stretch and has picked up a victory in each of the last two weeks and four saves over the past four weeks. He’s going to be relied on heavily as the Tigers make their postseason push and should be good for around four strikeouts as well. He’s probably in.
So three relievers (Weaver, Holton and Hader). Four potential doubles (Pepiot, McGreevy, Schmidt and Cannon). That leaves us with two singles to work with. Francis would be one as long as we’re sure that he’s pitching. Burnes we have discussed already gets a tough matchup against the Yankees in New York (Cole). Walker Buehler has been terrible this season and gets the Rockies at Coors Field. For the WHIP concerns alone, that has to be a pass – even coming off of a nine-strikeout game. That leaves Baz against the Red Sox or Kutter Crawford against the Rays. My early lean on that one is to simply roll with Burnes against the Yankees and hope for the best.
On the offensive side of the ledger, we’ll have to wait and see if Tyler O’Neill is healthy. If he’s not in Monday’s lineup, then we will need to play either Trevor Larnach (one LHP) or Grant McCray (one LHP) ahead of him for what’s likely only two games for either.
Anthony Rizzo and Rowdy Tellez each get three games against all RHP, with the three for Tellez coming in a revenge spot against the Brewers. Currently leaning towards playing both of them.
I’m also thinking of playing Jace Jung over Xavier Edwards, as Jung has been swinging a better bat over the past week and Edwards has seen his average come back to earth a bit. The stolen bases don’t help, and Jung is more likely to contribute RBI or potentially run into one.
Lineups on Monday and Tuesday may end up dictating what we need to do there.
Where we Stand
We finished last week down at a miserable 94.5 league points. That put us 8.5 points back of Dussault for third place and 16 points behind Gill for second. We finished the week back at 99 league points. That’s still five points behind Dussault for third place and only eight points back of Gill for second place. It’s going to take a miracle to get there, but all hope isn’t lost just yet.
We were in 181st place overall and in 80th place in the CLQ standings at the end of last week. We finished this week in 170th place overall and in 78th in the CLQ. Not going to do anything there, but would still like to finish the season strong.
While it doesn’t look like this team is going to cash this season, it has been an absolute pleasure to write this column each and every week. Those that have been following along and taking part in this journey with me, I can’t tell you how much I have appreciated the feedback throughout the season. This has probably been my favorite column to write in the 12+ years that I’ve been doing this. If you have any thoughts or opinions on the wild ride that it has been this season, you can find me on X (@DaveShovein) and I would be happy to discuss.
