Progress! Finally, we have the week that we have been waiting for over the past two months. Good pitching, quality hitting and just solid results across the board. Things could get interesting if we find a way to start stacking these types of weeks together, but we’ll absolutely take what we got in Week 23.
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Hitting Review
Rather than getting elite production from a pair of Contreras brothers like we have gotten used to over the course of the season, the lone brother remaining decided to carry the load for both of them in Week 23. William Contreras hit .259 with three homers, six runs scored, six RBI and a stolen base (of home) in 27 at-bats on the week. We will take that every single time. Carson Kelly disappointed in his debut with the club, hitting .286 in 14 at-bats but with zeroes across the board. That’s the type of thing that most fantasy managers are dealing with at the catcher position throughout the year in this format.
Paul Goldschmidt decided he was going to start hitting again this week, rapping out 15 hits in 27 at-bats (.556) with a homer and six RBI. He only managed to score one run, but the RBI are far more important to us at the moment so we’ll absolutely take it.
Jace Jung struggled again in a full week at second base for us, hitting just .176 with a pair of runs scored and an RBI. We have some flexible pieces that we can move around, so Jung may not get a full week for us next time out.
The good version of Ezequiel Tovar showed up again this week, hitting .261 with a pair of homers, eight RBI, four runs scored and even a stolen base for good measure. It hasn’t always been consistent, but he has been a reliable contributor this season.
Jose Ramirez delivered another solid week across the board, hitting .300 (9-for-30) with a homer, two steals, six runs scored and two swipes. He’s a surefire first-round pick once again in 2025.
Tyler O’Neill blasted a couple of dingers and even stole a base, but he did so while hitting just .136. We’ll allow it. Randy Arozarena did exact revenge against the Rays as anticipated with a couple of homers, four runs scored and four RBI on the week.
Jurickson Profar ran extremely cold this week, with just one hit in 22 at-bats (.045). Somehow he still managed to steal two bases, drive in two runs and score four times. That makes up for the average hit.
Jarren Duran continues to impress every single week. He hit .393 (11-for-28) in the games that actually counted for this week with three homers, five RBI and six runs scored. He also socked another dinger in the continuation of a suspended game from Week 14 to give us another home run there.
Kerry Carpenter continued to be a very strong addition, hitting .316 with a pair of long balls and a team-high eight RBI on the week.
Gavin Sheets and Trevor Larnach split a roster spot for the week, with neither one contributing any counting stats.
Jose Tena did well in his first week on the squad, hitting .304 (7-for-23) with a homer, three runs scored and three RBI. We would take that every week from him.
Rowdy Tellez sat against a couple of southpaws but went nuts when he was in the lineup, hitting .471 (8-for-17) with a homer and six RBI. That’ll definitely play.
Looking at our weekly numbers, the only place that we came up short on offense was in stolen bases (-0.8) and we had a surplus there to play with. We exceeded our targets in runs (+3.5), homers (+6.1), RBI (+13.5) and batting average (+0.033)
Given that our biggest deficiencies were in the power categories, this was a tremendous week on offense for us.
Looking at our season-long numbers, we’re still running a surplus in runs (+44) and stolen bases (+14). We made up ground, but we’re still behind the number in homers (-7) and RBI (-59). Our batting average is just below the line that we’re looking for (-0.001).
Pitching Review
We enter the week with high hopes on the pitching side once again, with (hopefully) 10 starts on tap and a pair of closers still taking the mound for us.
We started out on Monday with Ryan Pepiot toeing the slab against the Mariners. While he didn’t earn a victory in that one, it’s hard to find much fault with his effort as he allowed just two earned runs on seven hits and a walk over his six innings of work – striking out six batters in the process. He also helped the squad’s offense by serving up a homer to Randy Arozarena.
Josh Hader entered Monday’s game as well with an opportunity to earn a victory as he pitched a scoreless top half of the ninth inning against the Phillies with three strikeouts. The Astros couldn’t walk it off for him this time though and he wound up as the losing pitcher as he allowed the extra runner to score in the 10th.
On Tuesday, Justin Verlander took the mound for what was supposed to be the first of his two starts on the week. He wound up getting knocked around in a losing effort against the Phillies, giving up four runs on seven hits across his five frames. Old man River punched out three batters in the game.
FAAB addition Brant Hurter also took the mound for what should have been the first of his two starts, giving up just two runs on four hits and a pair of walks in his victory over the Angels. That’s our first victory of the week. Hurter struck out four batters in that one.
On Wednesday we had Corbin Burnes take the mound against the Dodgers and Walker Buehler (who we left on the bench for the week despite the added win equity from our starters facing each other). Burnes’ defense did him zero favors in this one as he allowed six runs (one earned) on five hits over his five frames while striking out four. Thankfully, the runs that he did allow didn’t result in Buehler earning a win, as he was bounced after 4 2/3 innings.
Alexis Diaz made his first appearance of the week on Wednesday, needing just seven pitches to fire a scoreless inning against the Athletics. Diaz took the mound again on Thursday in a save situation and wasn’t quite as good. He allowed three runs on three hits and a walk without recording a single out. It was a double whammy too, as the Reds rallied to win in the home half of the ninth, but Diaz wasn’t the beneficiary as he didn’t finish his inning.
On Thursday evening we also had a couple of our hurlers battle one another in Kutter Crawford and staff ace Bowden Francis. Crawford pitched well – giving up just two runs on six hits and a pair of walks over 6 2/3 innings. He struck out three batters along the way. It wasn’t good enough to earn a victory though because Francis didn’t allow a single run over his seven innings of one-hit baseball. The right-hander fanned five as he picked up his fourth victory in four starts for us. What an absolute monster he has been.
Hader came on again on Thursday and worked a scoreless ninth inning to protect a three-run lead against the Royals, nabbing our first save of the week.
On Friday night Hader took the hill again in a save situation, but this time he served up a two-run (one earned) homer to Paul DeJong that tied the game. Not to worry though, as this time the Astros were able to walk it off for him in the home half of the ninth, delivering his seventh victory of the season. We’ll absolutely take it. That’s three victories on the week.
Shane Baz was our only hurler to toe the slab on Saturday and it started out rough as he served up a two-run blast to Jake Cronenworth just three batters into the game. Those would be the only two runs that he allowed in his five innings though, allowing just two hits and three walks en route to our fourth victory of the week. Baz struck out five batters in the game.
We should have had Justin Verlander take the mound for the Astros on Sunday, but they shifted their rotation mid-week and pushed him back until Monday. That brought us down to just nine starts on the week.
Hurter went back out on Sunday and once again performed admirably, allowing just one run on six hits while striking out five batters over five innings in a victory over the Red Sox. Anytime you can grab two victories in a week from a low-cost FAAB addition, it’s a huge win.
Pepiot wasn’t quite as good in his second start of the week, giving up three runs on eight walks+hits across three-plus innings in a loss to the Padres. He struck out four batters in the ballgame.
We also added a bonus reliever win on Sunday as Alexis Diaz worked a scoreless top half of the 11th inning against the Brewers and wound up as the victor when the Reds walked it off in the home half of the inning.
You wouldn’t know it by seeing red in four of the five pitching categories, but this was a very strong week for our staff. We smashed our target in wins (+2.3) which is a major battleground for us. We missed in ratios, but not by much as our ERA (-0.024) and WHIP (-0.049) came in just under the numbers we are looking for. We still missed our target in strikeouts (-8.8) and that one definitely hurts, but we’ll take it. We also missed the target in saves (-2.1) but we had room to work with there.
Looking at the season-long numbers, our only surplus is still in saves and it’s minuscule at (+1). We’re way behind in wins (-12) and strikeouts (-114) and our ratios are still off the charts with no clear sign of recovery coming.
FAAB Plan
There are a lot of things conspiring together to make FAAB a difficult proposition this week. One, is that rosters expanded on Sunday so each MLB team added an additional hitter and pitcher to the mix. That plays with rotations, as many teams have mixed in an extra day of rest for their starters or shifted to a six-man rotation. That really limits the options for two-start pitchers going forward. Since our biggest remaining battles are being fought in wins and strikeouts, that’s an issue.
We’re also limited by our budget. We have just $18 remaining to spend, so our moves have to be very carefully executed and we’re not going to win any of the fun high-priced impact additions.
That’s the case with Dylan Crews and Jordan Walker this week, who are the top bats available to be bid on. We could probably go to $7 or so, but that’s certainly not going to be enough to acquire their services. After that, there really isn’t a whole lot on the hitting side that represents a clear upgrade over what we currently have.
If there was someone that was clearly a better option than Gavin Sheets, Trevor Larnach or Jace Jung, maybe we try to swap them out, I’m just not seeing it at the moment though. Maybe Anthony Rizzo or Kyle Manzardo for $1 or $2?
On the pitching front, we need starts. The ratios are a secondary concern, we just need starts to pile up wins and strikeouts. While we are loaded with starting pitchers on the roster right now, we only line up for one two-start week next week (Corbin Burnes). That’s not nearly enough.
Brant Hurter served us well in his two-start week, but he’s not someone that we’re going to be using going forward, so he can be dropped. After that, we would have to cut Sheets or someone like Buehler or Verlander who aren’t likely to double for a couple of weeks still.
In terms of the available options that could line up for two starts, it isn’t pretty. Patrick Corbin is lined up for a solid double – at the Marlins and at the Pirates – so he should have a decent shot at a victory and will likely add 8-12 strikeouts. That’s what we’re looking for. JT Ginn is lined up for two starts, vs. the Mariners and vs. the Tigers, and that has some value for us. Kyle Freeland goes twice on the road – but it’s at the Braves and at the Brewers. Not great.
Cade Povich only goes once, but it’s against the White Sox which is always appealing. He would then line up for two starts next week. That’s probably worth a look. Ty Madden or Kenta Maeda should get bulk innings twice for the Tigers, but it’s difficult to discern which. Chris Flexen goes twice, but he isn’t going to win.
Honestly, I’d be thrilled to somehow come away from this with Corbin and Ginn for $2 each.
FAAB Results
We know going in that there’s not going to be a whole lot of action on our end, but let’s see the results.
To the surprise of no one, Jordan Walker fetched the highest bid of the week at $38 ($13). Unfortunately it’s to Phil Dussault, who we are in direct competition with.
Dylan Crews pulled in the second highest bid of the week at $23 ($18). Our measly $7 simply wasn’t enough.
Phil also added Tommy Pham ($18 to $2) and Tylor Megill ($13 to $3) to his squad. Lane Thomas was picked up for $16 ($5).
Further down the list we see an interesting name in Tyler Glasnow for $4 ($1). If he makes it back to make a couple of starts, that could possibly pay off for that manager.
Patrick Corbin is a pitcher that we actually had a lot of interest in. Unfortunately he went for $3 ($3) which was significantly higher than our bid of $2. We now root against him. Same goes for Kyle Freeland ($3 to $1) and Cade Povich ($3 to $2).
It’s not until we hit the $2 level that we score our two wins for the week. We added J.T. Ginn ($2 unopposed) and Anthony Rizzo ($2 unopposed) with Hurter and Sheets as the drops.
Kyle Manzardo was added for $1 (unopposed) by Carter Gill.
Looking around the league for potential interesting drops, we have Andrew Benintendi maybe? Not a whole lot of substance was released this week.
Looking Ahead
Like we did last week in this spot, we’re going to start by looking at our categories and seeing where we can gain or lose the most ground, as that information should drive our lineup decisions.
On offense we’re still so far ahead in runs that no one is going to catch us. The same can be said for stolen bases. In home runs there’s some separation. We’re sitting in fourth place, +7 on the team that’s behind us and +21 on sixth place. The team that we’re chasing for second place in the league sits ahead of us in homers where we are -13.
RBI is still the real battleground on offense. We sit in seventh place at the moment with 833. There’s a team nipping at our heels with 832. We really can’t afford to lose that point. Behind them the next closest is -30 at 803. Ahead of us though, there’s a team at 834. There’s another at 839 and another at 847. We need to focus all of our attention on the RBI category if we can.
There’s a batting average point to be gained as well, as we had it at one point on Saturday and then gave it back. We will enter Week 24 at .2578 while the team ahead of us sits at .2584. It would take something terrible for the team below us at .2520 to move up.
On the pitching side, strikeouts is still a fight that we need to try our best in. We’re tied for eighth place at 1,091. The closest team behind us has 1,040. At a minimum, it would be nice to win that battle and gain half a point. Above us though, are teams with 1,119 and 1,127. The team with 1,119 directly ahead of us is the team we’re fighting for second place.
Wins is a battleground as well. We did nice work this past week with six wins to put us in the fight, but there is more work to be done still. We currently have 70 victories on the season. There are two teams behind us with 67, another at 66 and another at 65. There is a team above us at 71, another at 73 and another at 74. We need to keep climbing here.
The down week in saves hurt us, and there’s more pain coming in the future. We’re currently tied atop the league in the category with 69 saves on the season. There are two teams behind us with 68 each, one of them is the team in second place in the league. We need to keep rolling two closers, which is why adding starts through two-start pitchers is so critical.
ERA looks like we’re going to finish right where we are. We hold a 4.078 mark in the category at the moment. The closest team behind us is at 4.192. The closest team ahead of us is at 3.977. While neither is likely, it’s probably more likely that we gain a point than lose a point.
WHIP is a bit more competitive. We currently sit in 10th place at 1.223. There’s a team not far behind us at 1.229. The closest ahead of us is once again the team we’re fighting for second place at 1.206. It would have to take a combination of us pitching very well and him pitching poorly to get there, but stranger things have happened.
So the focus needs to be on RBI on the offensive side, and wins/strikeouts/saves from the pitching staff. Got it.
Looking at our decisions on the hitting side, we currently have two healthy bench bats to play with – and could gain a third at some point during the week if Xavier Edwards (back) returns.
Catchers are set, nothing we can do there. Goldschmidt is coming off of a monster week, so even though he only gets three games and they’re all against RHP, he’s earned the right to start this week.
Skipping over Jung for the time being, Tovar and Ramirez are locked in every week. Same for the entire outfield at the moment. Carpenter gets one LHP in his three games, but we can’t sit him with how well he has been hitting. O’Neill will probably rest a game against the Mets, so of the five he’s the most likely to sit if we had to sit one.
Tellez is lined up for four games during the front half of the week, but two of them happen to be against left-handed pitching. That means he’ll likely start two and come off the bench in the other two. Probably still enough to make him worthwhile.
Jose Tena gets three, all RHP. Two against the Marlins and one against the Pirates. Trevor Larnach doesn’t start against LHP and gets pulled immediately anytime he’s scheduled to face one. He’s lined up for four games, with only one of them against a southpaw.
Looking at our bench options, Jeff McNeil gets three games against the Red Sox, all against RHP. He could be an option to play over Jung. FAAB addition Anthony Rizzo gets three against the Rangers, one of them against a LHP. He’ll probably start two games.
Pending lineups, my early lean is to sit Jung and Larnach in favor of McNeil and Rizzo. We’ll see how it plays out though.
On the pitching side, it’s a bit trickier. As alluded to above, we have to keep both of our closers in the lineup as we’re fighting a major battle in saves still. That gives us seven spots to play with.
The focus is on maximizing starts, so any two-start options immediately get through. This week that’s Corbin Burnes and FAAB addition J.T. Ginn. Bowden Francis has been so unbelievable since joining our roster that we can’t possibly sit him, even for a single against the Phillies (Sanchez). That gets us to five spots filled. Four to go.
Ryan Pepiot struggled in his final start of the week on Sunday and he draws a tough matchup against the Orioles in Baltimore (Kremer). Verlander struggled his last time out as well and he’s scheduled to take on the Reds at the Great American Smallpark on Monday (Aguiar). The win equity seems decently high in that start, and if the Astros opt against going with a six-man rotation this week he could fall into a second start on Sunday. He’s probably in.
Shane Baz pitched well and earned us a victory this past week, he’s lined up to take on Zebby Matthews and the Twins on Thursday. It’s a decent spot, he’s at least in consideration. Kutter Crawford looked much better against the Blue Jays this past week and he draws a single against the Mets in New York (Peterson). Perhaps he’s worth a look.
Erick Fedde piled up eight strikeouts on our bench this past week. He’s scheduled to take on the Brewers in Milwaukee on Wednesday (Rea). Clarke Schmidt is tentatively scheduled to join the Yankees’ rotation over the weekend against the Cubs in Chicago. That’s assuming his final rehab start at Double-A Somerset goes well on Monday. It’s at least an option to consider.
Casey Mize pitched fairly well in his first start off the 60-day injured list and draws a nice matchup against the Padres in San Diego on Thursday (Perez). That’s in the mix as well. Walker Buehler has not pitched well since returning from the injured list, but he gets a matchup against the Angels (Detmers) on Tuesday and if we’re hunting for wins that’s probably in play also.
Hader, Diaz, Burnes, Ginn and Francis for sure. We then need to sit four of the remaining options. Verlander is in as the sixth, as he has the highest win probability and is the only one who could conceivably get a second start. Baz has been really good in his last three starts. He gets a spot as well.
My early lean after that would be to use Mize and Crawford. That leaves out Fedde, Pepiot, Buehler and Schmidt for this week. I could see myself changing it up though and going with Schmidt if the reports are good on Monday.
Where we Stand
We entered the week with only 95.5 points in our league. That was 26 points behind Benger at the top and 16.5 points behind Gill for second. Our lead on Dussault chasing us for third place had been trimmed to just five points to finish the week and was as close as one point earlier in the period. With a strong showing on both sides of the ball we finished Week 23 at 102 league points and had been as high as 103 on Saturday. That’s 27.5 points behind Benger at the top and 12 points behind Gil for second place. Even with the strong showing though, we’re still just five points ahead of Dussault for third place.
We finished last week in 172nd place in the overall standings and 71st place in the CLQ. With a strong week we climbed back up to 127th place in the overall and 67th place in the CLQ. We’re not going to get anything out of either, but it would still be nice to finish the season with a strong month of September.
All we have to do now is go out and do the same thing that we did this past week. Would love to grind out a couple of points and finish the week in the 106-107 range and really have a shot at chasing down Gill over the final four weeks. Falling a few points and drawing even with Dussault would be a complete disaster. Four weeks left, let’s go and get it.
As always, I would love to hear your feedback on what you think of the article, the team, my decision making, the emotional roller-coaster, etc. If you’d like more insights into the CLQ or why those other two teams are struggling to keep us going there, let me know. Those that have reached out so far, I can’t tell you how much it’s been appreciated. This has probably been my favorite column to write in the 12+ years that I’ve been doing this. Just drop me a line on X (@DaveShovein) and I would be happy to discuss.