In a week where we expected to make up ground and start our climb up the standings, the opposite happened and we slid backwards. The offense came up light for the first time in weeks and while there was some progress on the pitching side, it wasn’t enough. Still, we’re optimistic that we can make it happen over the final six weeks.
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Hitting Review
This week at the catcher position it was the younger Contreras brother doing all of the heavy lifting, as William clubbed a team-leading four home runs while scoring six times and driving in four. That’s more like it. Willson had a down week, hitting for a solid average but chipping in just one run and one RBI.
Paul Goldschmidt continues to be a problem at first base and had another down week. He homered and drove in two runs while hitting just .182. Unfortunately, the first base – and corner infield – landscape has been very difficult this season so there just haven’t been viable replacement options available.
It may not look like Xavier Edwards did a whole lot this week, but that’s just because he only played over the weekend for us. We sat him in the front half of the week as he was only lined up for two games – and he still managed to steal three bases in the front half to give him five total on the week.
Ezequiel Tovar continues to run hot and cold and had another cold week, which he has seemingly done a lot when he has been at Coors Field lately. Three runs scored and a poor average with nothing else to show for the week.
Jose Ramirez only had four hits in 20 at-bats on the week – and he still managed to homer, score six times, drive in four runs and steal a whopping four bases. He has been unbelievable for us this season.
Randy Arozarena had an absolutely pitiful week at the plate, going 1-for-18 (.056) with zeros across the board and what felt like 15 strikeouts. Ugh.
David Fry saw his playing time cut back a bit this week, which could also be a problem, but he still managed to sock a dinger and drive in a pair of runs for us.
Jurickson Profar wasn’t much help this week either, hitting .174 with just three runs scored and an RBI. He was never going to continue at his torrid early season pace, but we’re going to need a little more than this going forward.
Jarren Duran has been one of the few bats carrying our offense this season, and that was the case in Week 21 as well. He hit just .208, but homered, scored three times, drove in three runs and swiped a pair of bases. No complaints here.
Kerry Carpenter was our big FAAB addition on offense last week, and even though we overspent on him (relative to the runner-up bid), he rewarded our faith in him by crushing three home runs in his first two games after being activated from the injured list and drove in five runs on the week. He should be a major asset in power going forward.
Rowdy Tellez hasn’t been great lately, and still sits against southpaws, but he’s still probably better than the alternatives we could add. He ran into another one this week and drove in three runs while scoring just once in his 19 at-bats.
Jeff McNeil has done a nice job as a fill-in at middle infield for us, and he swatted another homer this week. Another nice complementary piece to have – though having other options there wouldn’t hurt.
Ty France didn’t play as much as I would’ve liked to see this week, and that could be a problem going forward. In his limited action (14 at-bats), he managed to hit .286 and hit a homer though, so we can’t complain too much.
Looking at our weekly numbers, it’s not great. A big part of the problem is that we came in way short in at-bats at only 271. That’s not going to get it done. Thankfully, we get another option back next week now that Tyler O’Neill is healthy.
For the first time that I can remember all season, we badly missed our target in runs scored (-10.3), but fortunately we have a major surplus there. We also missed in RBI (-12.4), but that’s not new for us. We came in way under in batting average as well (-0.052). We actually hit our target in homers (+2.1) and just barely crept over it in stolen bases (+0.2).
As far as the season-long targets, we are still running a surplus in runs (+49) and stolen bases (+11). We’re behind in homers (-10), but that gap is narrowing. We’re never going to catch up in RBI (-61). The batting average is short, but it’s not by much (-0.002).
Pitching Review
It’s a bit unusual to start out the week on a good note, but that’s exactly what happened for us in Week 20. We had our two new-addition FAAB doubles each take the hill on Monday night, and it’s hard to complain about the results. Tyler Mahle didn’t earn a win in his debut, but he allowed just two runs with a 1.29 WHIP across his 4 2/3 innings and managed to rack up seven strikeouts. We’ll take that. Bowden Francis then went out and fired an absolute gem, allowing just one run on one hit over seven innings with eight strikeouts to earn our first victory of the week. We were off and rolling.
On Tuesday night we also had two starters take the hill, and though the results weren’t quite as good, we’re still not complaining. Erick Fedde struggled in his start against the Reds, serving up a late two-run homer to allow four runs on eight walks+hits over his six innings – picking up just two strikeouts along the way. Not ideal, but not a complete disaster.
Kutter Crawford then turned in one of the most frustrating starts that we have seen this season. He retired the first 16 batters that he faced against the Rangers, carrying a perfect game into the sixth inning. He then allowed four straight batters to reach, pushing a run across and loading the bases before exiting with a 6-1 advantage. The bullpen then came on and allowed all three of the inherited runners to score before mercifully getting out of the inning. All told, Crawford was saddled with four runs on just four walks+hits over 5 1/3 while striking out four. Not great, but he also earned the victory which makes it completely worth it.
We had both of our closers take the mound on Tuesday as well, with Alexis Diaz protecting a three-run lead against the Cardinals and Josh Hader closing out a one-run advantage against the Rays. Each of them added a strikeout in the process of securing their saves.
Hader went right back to work on Wednesday, working a scoreless ninth inning in a tied game against the Rays. He then returned after the Astros scored in the top of the 10th inning, working a scoreless 10th to close out his own victory. He retired all six batters that he faced in the contest – three of them via the strikeout. That’s exactly what we’re expecting from him.
Things got worse as the week went on. On Wednesday, we got our first taste of Walker Buehler in his return from the injured list against the Brewers. The Dodgers scored three runs in the top half of the first inning to stake him to an early lead. He went on to allow four runs in the contest (one of them earned) with a cringe-inducing 2.10 WHIP and three strikeouts over 3 1/3 innings. Not ideal.
On Friday night, we had both Ryan Pepiot and Corbin Burnes take the hill. Pepiot pitched well, allowing just a pair of unearned runs over 5 1/3 innings with a 1.13 WHIP and five strikeouts. He didn’t earn a victory, but we’ll take that performance every time out.
What we won’t wish for each time, is the disaster that Burnes dropped on us against the Red Sox on Friday. The right-hander hadn’t allowed more than four runs in any start this season, but he was obliterated for eight runs and an insane 3.25 WHIP over four innings. Woof. He struck out eight batters, but that one seriously stings our ratios for the week – and for the season.
To finish off the week we had three starters take the hill on Sunday. One of them was great, one was alright and one was a complete disaster.
Crawford was the man in the middle, surrendering three runs on three hits over 5 1/3 innings. He struck out four batters and did not earn a victory.
Mahle was obliterated in his second start of the season, giving up four runs on six hits in just three innings of work. He recorded only one strikeout. There’s going to be bumps in the road in his return from Tommy John surgery, I still think that he can be an asset going forward.
Francis delivered another absolutely brilliant performance on Sunday, scattering just three hits over seven scoreless innings in a 1-0 victory over the Cubs. He punched out seven (or more) batters for the third consecutive start and didn’t walk a batter. What an absolute monster of a pickup for this week.
Josh Hader also came on Sunday afternoon and worked a scoreless ninth inning with a pair of strikeouts to snag his second save of the week. If we wind up sitting a closer next week, it’s surely not going to be him.
Looking at how the weekly numbers came out, we actually hit our targets in both wins (+0.3) and strikeouts (+1.3) for the first time in – maybe ever? If we’re going to overtake Gill for second place in our league, the runway to do it is almost exclusively in wins and strikeouts. This is a nice start, but it needs to continue.
We also hit our target in WHIP on the week (+0.101), while falling short in ERA (-0.77) and just barely missing the saves goal (-0.1).
On the season, our only surplus on the pitching side is in saves (+5). We’re still chasing big numbers in wins (-16) and strikeouts (-95) while falling woefully short in WHIP (-0.081) and ERA (-0.61).
FAAB Plan
Now that the season is winding down and we have a severely diminished FAAB budget, this section isn’t going to be quite as interesting. We’re working with just $39 for the rest of the year, or $6.5 per week over the final six FAAB periods of the season. We really don’t want to go over that budget in any given week and don’t want to spend big on anything that we really don’t need.
The problem with that, is that there’s a player that I’ve always been super high on that’s available to bid on for the first time this week in Matthew Boyd. He’s coming off of a very strong start in his season debut (returning from Tommy John surgery) and pitches for one of the best teams in the American League – so the win equity is high. He also lines up for two starts next week (at Yankees, vs. Rangers). The most likely scenario is that we don’t have the funds to acquire him anyways, but we’re still going to take our best shot and see what happens. That’s probably only in the $15-$16 range, as that’s the absolute max that I can justify at this stage.
Behind him, Sebby Matthews looked sharp in his big-league debut this week and he’s also slated to start twice next week (at Padres, vs. Cardinals). Same as with Boyd, he’ll probably go higher than we are willing to spend, and my max there is probably around $8 or $9.
The guy that I’m actually targeting on the pitching front (as I don’t expect to be high enough to get Boyd or Matthews) is Bryan Sammons. The thinking is that he’ll get completely overlooked because no one knew who he was a month ago, he was plucked from the independent leagues and forced into regular action with the Tigers out of complete necessity. He’s also working exclusively as a bulk reliever, so he’s not showing up on most lists when looking at two-start pitchers for the upcoming week. The only source where he did see him listed was in Vlad Sedler’s weekly FAAB article at FTN Fantasy, because he’s the GOAT and never misses anything.
Sammons has been terrific in his current role, posting a 3.38 ERA, 0.70 WHIP and a 13/4 K/BB ratio across his 18 2/3 innings. He’s lined up to pitch twice next week – at the Cubs and at the White Sox. Before I saw that he was listed in Vlad’s article, I was expecting to sneak him through for only $1. Now that he’s been listed there – and the fact that fellow Tigers’ fan Rob Giese is in this league – I may up the bid to $2. I don’t think I need to go to $3, but we’ll see.
Those are really the three targets on the pitching side. There really isn’t much that piques my interest on the hitting side this week, and we don’t really need anything there.
The only clear-cut drop that we have on the roster is DL Hall, who was optioned out to Triple-A Nashville after his brilliant start last week. He’d be a nice luxury to have if he was in the rotation, but we can better utilize that spot right now.
As far as our stashes go on the pitching side, Pepiot and Buehler both returned this week. Justin Verlander is likely to return during the upcoming week. Clarke Schmidt still thinks he’ll be back before the end of August. The depth in our rotation is growing.
On the hitting side, Miguel Vargas is the only player that we’re not looking to play every week, so that spot could be upgraded if we find the right option. Maybe that’s Jace Jung? The only good thing about Vargas is that he covers middle infield and has outfield eligibility, though Jung will soon have 3B to go along with his 2B. Connor Norby is also expected to be recalled on Monday and he could make for an upgrade over Vargas as well. He’ll be in the mix. Possibly David Peralta also? He has been red-hot at the plate and the Padres get seven games next week with three RHP in the front half.
If we somehow land either Boyd or Matthews on the SP front, I’d still like to try to get Sammons for $1 or $2. That would likely mean dropping Bowden Francis in that case or cutting bait on Buehler. We’ll see.
My best guess is that I miss on Boyd and Matthews and get Sammons on our top pitching bid for $2. I’m hoping that $5 is enough to get Jace Jung, if not, maybe we land a $1 Peralta.
FAAB Results
Alright, let’s take a look and see what we have won!
As expected, we didn’t have the requisite funds to land Matthew Boyd, as our $17 bid fell way short of both the winning bid ($78) and the runner-up bid ($46). My only solace is that the team that won the bid isn’t one that’s competing at the top of the league right now.
That’s not the same sentiment on Zebby Matthews. Sure, I was right that our bid wasn’t high enough to get there, but this time the winning bid went to Carter Gill for $55 ($27). Now we get to root against the Twins’ rookie hurler.
After those two, there were players that we didn’t really have interest in: Mitch Spence ($27 unopposed), Jason Foley ($19 to $2), Dairon Blanco ($11 to $3), Max Kepler ($7 to $4), Manuel Rodriguez ($7 to $1), Valente Bellozo ($6 to $4), Joe Boyle ($6 to $3), Ramon Laureano ($6 to $3), Jorge Lopez ($6 unopposed).
When we get down to the $5 tier, we find out that our bid was enough – and probably $4 too much – for Jace Jung as we win $5 (unopposed). Miguel Vargas the drop on that one.
We were also successful, as anticipated, in landing Bryan Sammons for $2 (unopposed). DL Hall the drop on that one.
David Peralta did wind up getting picked up, not by us, for $3 ($3). Connor Norby was not added, and if he goes nuts over the next six weeks we may end up regretting putting Jung ahead of him. Time will tell.
As far as potentially intriguing drops from around the league, here’s what interests me: Jorge Polanco? Grayson Rodriguez? That’s about it.
With the $7 spent, we’re down to $32 for the final five FAAB periods of the year. Benger has $56, Gill has $3, Dussault has $133 and Gialde has $55.
Looking Ahead
We’re going to start by looking at the arms again this week as that’s where our focus remains and that’s where there are points available to be had.
By my count, we have 13 healthy and active arms to work with and need to find the best nine to start. That means four are going to be left out.
We’ll start by throwing all of the doubles that we have, as wins and strikeouts are paramount and the best way to attack those categories is through volume. That means that Jonathan Cannon (at Giants, vs. Tigers), Erick Fedde (vs. Brewers, at Twins), Shane Baz (at Athletics, at Dodgers) and Bryan Sammons (at Cubs, at White Sox) are all in. That gives us five spots to work with.
Even with his career-worst outing against the Red Sox this week and a matchup against the Astros, I just can’t find it in me to bench Corbin Burnes for a single start. He makes five. Ryan Pepiot looked good in his return to the Rays rotation, and he gets a nice single against the Athletics in Oakland (Spence). That makes six. Bowden Francis was absolutely outstanding for us last week and he draws another matchup with the Angels this week. We can’t sit him. That gets us to seven.
We have a nice lead in saves in our league currently, as we’re +5 on second place and +6 on third place. The second place team has two closers in Kyle Finnegan and Seranthony Dominguez. The third place team has three closers in Mason Miller, Raisel Iglesias and Andres Munoz. We could potentially opt to sit one of our closers if we like the extra start enough. Both Hader and Diaz get seven games and Hader will be in the lineup for sure. That gets us to eight.
That means that we need to choose one pitcher from this remaining group for the final spot:
Justin Verlander vs. Red Sox (Criswell)
Tyler Mahle at Guardians (Lively)
Kutter Crawford vs. Diamondbacks (Kelly)
Walker Buehler vs. Mariners (Miller)
Alexis Diaz for seven – three at Blue Jays, four at Pirates
Verlander’s pitch count is likely to be limited in his first start back, and we saw what the Red Sox just did to Burnes this week. He’s probably a no for me this time around.
Mahle has failed to pitch into the sixth inning through his first two starts and was lit up by the Twins on Sunday. He’s probably got the highest ceiling of the group, but I’m leaning pass here as well.
Crawford has looked better (until the sixth inning) in each of his last two starts, but the Diamondbacks have been crushing everyone as of late. He’s a pass as well.
That leaves us with Buehler if looking to jam in an extra start. The matchup against the Mariners presents a strong floor for strikeouts and pitching behind the Dodgers’ offense always leads to opportunities for victories if he can go deep enough. If we go the extra start, he’s the play I think.
The issue for me with Diaz is that all seven games are on the road. That means that the Reds will likely wait until they take the lead in the top half of the inning before bringing him in to close it out. It’s much easier for closers to record victories at home, as they routinely work the top half of the ninth inning if the score is tied.
Shifting to the offense, we now have two extra bats to work with. While it gives us some options, it doesn’t cure everything. When trying to find two bats to sit, the one that stands out right away is Rowdy Tellez, who gets four games in the front half of the week but at least three of them are against left-handed starters. In order to do that, we would need to play Ty France in our corner infield spot, sliding Tyler O’Neill into the outfield. That works.
For me, the other sit comes down to either David Fry or Randy Arozarena. Arozarena had just one hit all of last week and gets three against the right-handers of the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Fry gets three at Yankee stadium and only gets one LHP. He probably plays two games at most. He has to be the sit I suppose.
Where we Stand
So we finished last week with 101.5 points in our league, which put us an overwhelming 20 points behind Benger at the top and 11.5 behind Gill for second place, while we held an 11.5 point edge on Gialde for third place. After a very frustrating week, we’re down to 98 points in our league. That puts us 28.5 points behind Benger at the top and 16 points behind Gill for second. Our lead on Dussault for third has been trimmed to just 9.5 points. It’s going to be a grind folks.
We finished last week in 153rd place in the overall standings and in 62nd place in the CLQ standings. We actually moved up slightly to 145th place in the overall and fell to 66th in the CLQ standings.
There are six weeks left in the season. Now is the time to grind out every possible point and make sure that we finish in third place at an absolute minimum. Anything less, and this season would be considered a colossal failure on my end.
As always, I would love to hear your feedback on what you think of the article, the team, my decision making, the emotional roller-coaster, etc. If you’d like more insights into the CLQ or why those other two teams are struggling to keep us going there, let me know. Those that have reached out so far, I can’t tell you how much it’s been appreciated. This has probably been my favorite column to write in the 12+ years that I’ve been doing this. Just drop me a line on X (@DaveShovein) and I would be happy to discuss.