Sometimes, when you try to go too fast, you just end up spinning your wheels. That’s what this week felt like. There’s severe urgency to make a change and climb up the standings, but we keep spinning in place.
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Hitting Review
Even in a bit of a down week, it’s hard to find too much fault with the offense. The lack of options – combined with Tyler O’Neill’s trip to the injured list and Seth Brown’s paternity leave – probably cost us some at-bats and production, but overall we’ll take it.
We were back to getting elite production from our pair of Contreras brothers behind the dish. It was William Contreras getting back to his early season form – hitting .360 with six runs scored, seven RBI and a homer. Meanwhile, the elder brother did his part as well, crushing a pair of homers with four runs scored and five RBI. I know I’ve mentioned it at length this season, but getting elite production from both catcher spots is such a massive advantage.
Paul Goldschmidt didn’t do anything too special, but managed to hit a home run and steal a base while driving in four runs on the week. If he did just that every week, I’d be perfectly fine.
Xavier Edwards is an absolute stud. He’s going to wind up being one of our top FAAB additions of the season along with Jurickson Profar and Trevor Megill. He has basically filled in the production that Luis Rengifo was providing and then some. Edwards swiped a whopping five bases on the week while hitting .267 with four runs scored. We’ll take the zeros in homers and RBI if he can keep doing that.
Ezequiel Tovar didn’t bring the average this week, but he homered, scored four runs and plated three. That’s good enough.
Another monster week from Jose Ramirez, but that’s exactly what we’ve come to expect from our superstar third baseman. He slugged a pair of long balls and swiped three bases to go with four runs, four RBI and a .321 average.
David Fry is still seeing action in the outfield for us since we’re low on alternatives at the moment. He only had three hits on the week, but two of them left the yard, making it a worthwhile week for him.
Max Kepler is becoming a problem. He played a lot this week, but they were very empty at-bats, hitting .240 with one run scored and nothing else. Blah.
Randy Arozarena didn’t leave the yard or steal a base on the week, but managed to hit .333 with five runs scored and three RBI. No issues there.
Profar didn’t blast any home runs this week, though he was hit by a remarkable five pitches. He was second on the club with five runs scored on the period and also swiped a base. No complaints here.
Jarren Duran had a down week by his standards, but still chipped in two runs, three RBI and three stolen bases. He has been a monster this season.
Rowdy Tellez hit .300 (6-for-20) on the week, but it came with just two runs and two RBI. We’re looking for more in the power categories.
Jeff McNeil continued his power surge with a pair of long balls, though those solo shots were his only two RBI on the week.
Seth Brown never got a hit for us, going 0-for-8 with a run scored in a couple of games sandwiched around his stint on the paternity list.
Taking a glance at the weekly numbers, we only hit two of the five targets across the board. We bested the target in runs scored yet again (+3.6) and clobbered the number in stolen bases (+5.2). We came in just short in batting average (-0.003) and homers (-0.9) while falling short again in RBI (-4.7).
Looking to the year-long numbers, we are now running major surpluses in both runs (+58) and stolen bases (+11). We’re just a hair under the target in batting average (-0.001) while facing significant deficits in homers (-13) and RBI (-54).
Pitching Review
We didn’t have any starters take the mound on Monday night to start the week, but we did have Josh Hader get into the game against the Rangers. He worked a scoreless bottom of the ninth in a tied game, striking out three batters in the process. The Astros then pushed a run across in the top half of the 10th, setting him up for a potential victory. It looked like that could be the case as Caleb Ferguson struck out each of the first two batters he faced in the bottom of the 10th – before serving up a walk-off two-run homer to Josh Smith that cost Hader his shot at a win.
On Tuesday we had three starters take the mound, hoping to make up ground in wins and strikeouts. We had the benefit of having two of our pitchers – Ross Stripling and Jonathan Cannon – square off against one another, increasing the likelihood of a win in that one. Stripling wasn’t great – giving up four runs, but with a 1.13 WHIP over 5 1/3 innings while striking out two. The runs he allowed though were more than enough support for Cannon, who surrendered just one run over his six frames – striking out five along the way. We’ll take it.
Bailey Falter looked good in the first half of his two-start week, firing a pair of scoreless innings against the Padres until a lengthy rain delay bumped him from the game. Ruined a shot at a victory and probably cost us at least a couple of strikeouts. Wonderful.
On Wednesday we turned the ball over to Eric Fedde, who was terrific in his second start with the Cardinals, allowing just one run with a 1.20 WHIP and six punchouts over five innings in a victory over the Rays.
Shane Baz wasn’t as fortunate against the Cardinals on Thursday, allowing four runs with a cringy 1.85 WHIP and just two strikeouts across 4 1/3 innings. That’s not what we’re looking for.
On Saturday, we had two starters take the hill and experience a microcosm of what our season has been in terms of chasing wins. The Orioles jumped out to an early 4-0 lead for Corbin Burnes, and he carried that lead into the fifth inning where he surrendered three runs. That one-run lead remained intact when Burnes exited after the sixth (three earned on five walks+hits with five K’s). The Rays tied it in the seventh though, only for the Orioles to re-take the lead in the eighth and go on to win the game. Another win that should’ve been.
Griffin Canning then took the mound against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals and he had allowed just two runs through six strong innings (despite zero strikeouts). He returned for the seventh with a two-run lead though and proceeded to give up another pair, ultimately settling for four earned on eight walks+hits in seven innings. What had looked like a promising afternoon with two wins developing ended up in complete heartbreak.
Our final start of the week came from Bailey Falter and boy did he live up to his name in this one. The left-hander gave up four runs on 10 walks+hits over his four-plus innings against the Dodgers, picking up just two strikeouts.
Heading into the week, the only real decision that we had on the pitching side was whether or not to sit one of our closers (Josh Hader for a six-game week) to get an extra start in our lineup (Kutter Crawford). It turns out, we made the right call on that one at least by sitting the struggling Crawford. He was tagged for six runs on a sky-high 2.45 WHIP over 3 2/3 innings against the Royals, contributing only three strikeouts. While it’s nice to avoid that disaster, that now makes four awful starts in a row for Crawford – meaning it’s going to be difficult to trust him going forward.
Hader meanwhile racked up three saves on the week while striking out five batters over 3 1/3 scoreless frames. That’s the guy that we expected when we drafted him in round 3. Need more of that going forward.
Looking at the weekly numbers on the pitching side, it isn’t pretty. The only target that we made once again was saves (+0.9). We came up way short in both ratio categories, wins (-1.7) and way behind in strikeouts (-22.7).
Taking a peek at the season-long numbers, it’s a similar picture. We’re running a small surplus in saves (+5) while trailing significantly everywhere else. The ratios are way out of line and we’re staring at crippling deficits in both wins (-16) and strikeouts (-96). If we’re going to make a dent in those numbers, it starts next week.
FAAB Plan
Alright, plan, we need a plan. I still feel like the season is completely slipping away so it has been difficult for me to try to figure out a direction with FAAB each week. Obviously wins and strikeouts are still paramount and we need to continue to attack those. I feel like we have been doing that for two months now though and still haven’t made any progress.
First things first, let’s see what type of dead weight we have that can be dropped. On the pitching side, Griffin Canning looks like an easy drop. He was only kept for this week due to his matchup with Corbin and the Nationals and his upcoming schedule is okay, but not something we’d want to use in a single-start week: (vs. Braves, at Blue Jays, at Tigers). He would then get a two-start week the week of September 3 (vs. Dodgers/at Rangers), but we could always try to add him back for that if we wanted to use it. That’s one drop.
Ross Stripling is set to take on the Mets in New York this week – a start that we’re highly unlikely to use. He doubles the following week though (vs. Rays and vs. Brewers) and the Rays’ start is against Shane Baz. That’s something that we’ll probably want to partake in and makes him a potential hold if we can find the space for him.
Bailey Falter’s upcoming schedule looks decent: vs. Mariners, vs. Reds, vs. Cubs for the next three weeks and then a double at the Cubs and vs. the Nationals. That’s assuming he stays healthy and remains in the rotation when Jared Jones inevitably returns. I think he’s an easy drop as well, though we may want to add him back if he’s still lined up for that double in four weeks. That’s two.
Jonathan Cannon has pitched well since we added him, but he has a tough single on tap against the Yankees and wins are extremely difficult to come by pitching for the White Sox. Like Stripling, he’s set to double in two weeks though and it looks like a strong one – at Giants and vs. Tigers. We’d like to hold him for that if possible, though rolling with his single against the Yankees isn’t ideal.
How about our injury stashes on the pitching side? Justin Verlander made his first minor league rehab start on Saturday and will need just one more before returning. He’s a hold. Walker Buehler will return this week, so he’s a hold. Clarke Schmidt faced live hitters on Saturday and expects to be back in the Yankees’ rotation before the end of August. Looks like a hold as well. Ryan Pepiot also made a rehab start on Saturday and could be cleared to return during the upcoming week. Have to hold there as well.
What about the hitting side? Matt McLain had a setback, suffering a ribcage injury and won’t begin a minor league rehab start on Monday as he was previously expected to do. Given the fact that Tyler O’Neill is now on the injured list, we really can’t afford to waste the spot if McLain isn’t likely to be back in a week or two – and this new injury could end up costing him the remainder of the season. Sad to say, he looks like a drop.
So that’s three easy ones. Are there any other potential upgrades for next week? We really didn’t get to experience much of Seth Brown since he missed most of the week while on paternity leave. He also has a brutal schedule this coming week with only five games (two over the weekend) and he faces two southpaws during that front half. He’s a nice guy to have on the bench, but if we can’t use him this week I don’t think we can hold.
Max Kepler will also face a pair of southpaws during the upcoming week, but it’s spaced out over seven games. He has also been playing against some left-handers, just hitting near the bottom of the lineup. I’m on the fence with him. I think if there’s an available upgrade, we could take it, but it’s not a must.
So we have three easy drops, and up to five total if we can find viable upgrades that we can use for next week. Before looking at what’s out there on the pitching side though, we should probably first look and see how many arms we absolutely need to start for next week.
Our only double for next week looks to be Kutter Crawford, who as we mentioned has been slaughtered in each of his last four starts. The double isn’t very inviting either – vs. Rangers and at Orioles – but I think we’re simply forced to use him and hope that he can snag a win and pile up 10 strikeouts over those two starts. If we move him and Buehler into the lineup (taking out Canning and Falter who will be dropped), that still leaves us starting Stripling and Cannon unless we add two arms.
We could always choose to add just one pitcher – and then be forced to start Cannon against the Yankees – which could give us the flexibility of adding a bench bat (of which we have none currently while O’Neill is on the IL).
So what’s available? On the pitching side, the top option in my opinion is Tyler Mahle. He looked sharp in his first start back from Tommy John surgery and he’s lined up for a two-start week though the matchups aren’t great (at Red Sox, vs. Twins). I’m getting pretty frustrated missing out on every top available arm lately, so I’ll probably go a few dollars higher than I think I need to in an effort to land Mahle.
Behind him, Bowden Francis is lined up for two starts (at Angels, at Cubs) and is worth a look. Old friend Taijuan Walker is returning to the Phillies in time for a two-start week (vs. Marlins, vs. Nationals). I’d roll the dice on that. There’s always a chance he goes Wednesday instead though, which would rob him of the two-start week.
We have already discussed how hard it is for White Sox hurlers to generate victories, but Ky Bush is set to start twice next week (vs. Yankees, at Astros). Looks like a recipe for pain, but maybe he’ll be on the list. Davis Daniel is currently lined up for two starts (vs. Blue Jays, vs. Braves) and will make the list.
Marco Gonzales is terrible, but he’ll toe the slab twice next week (at Padres, vs. Mariners) and could luck his way into a victory. These are the waters that we unfortunately have to fish in these days.
DL Hall doesn’t line up for two starts, but he looked tremendous in his return from the injured list on Sunday and could be an intriguing arm for the remainder of the season. He’ll be on the bid list for sure.
On the hitting side, I’d hate to add another stash to the mix in place of Matt McLain, but I love Kerry Carpenter. He spent the second half of this past week on a minor league rehab stint at Triple-A Toledo and should only need a few more games before he’s ready to return to the Tigers’ outfield. Prior to the injury he was hitting cleanup and smashing the baseball for the Tigers, and that would be a very welcomed addition for the stretch run.
After that, Andrew Benintendi is coming off of a week where he crushed five home runs out of nowhere and could be worth a look in place of Brown/Kepler. After that, it gets rough pretty quickly. Ty France, Jonah Bride, Miguel Vargas, Luke Raley and a bunch of other misfits.
My expectation going in is that we’ll probably get both Mahle and Carpenter – and likely overpay for both of them. If that’s the case, I’m happy to do so to get the guys I want. After that, I expect to land either Francis or Hall plus a sketchier starting pitcher along with Ty France/Jonah Bride and potentially Miguel Vargas if he can come cheap.
FAAB Results
Wow. It’s been a while since we got to see our team at the top of the FAAB winning bids list. We’ll see if it ends up paying off or not, but for the moment, the mood is high. Tyler Mahle landed the biggest bid of the week at $61 ($44). Not even as big of an overpay as I was expecting. Happy about this one.
Garrett Crochet was the next man up at $55 ($7). If he continues to have his innings limited, he’ll be a solid source of strikeouts but isn’t likely to get any victories. After that, it was Lucas Erceg at $41 ($17). We are set on saves, so we weren’t looking in that direction this week. Same thing can be said for Ryan Walker at $24 ($21).
The top bat off the board also came to us in Kerry Carpenter for $21 ($3). I knew going in that I was higher on him than the field and would probably overpay. Let’s just hope that Kerry Bombs makes our opponents regret not bidding more.
I was very surprised to see us also land Bowden Francis for $13 ($4). He’s got a nice double lined up for next week and is a step above the normal trash that we have been trotting out there. I’ll take it.
Andrew Benintendi was a player that we had interest in, but we lost out on a tiebreaker $9 ($9). Can’t get everyone I suppose.
Instead, we picked up Ty France for $9 ($3). He has been seeing everyday at-bats as the Reds’ first baseman and his bat showed signs of life this week. I never hate gambling on a player with a strong track record.
I also really liked what I saw out of DL Hall on Sunday and think that the Brewers will find a way to squeeze him into their rotation. His strikeout upside is very hard to come by on the waiver wire. Another overpay at $8 ($1), but this could be a difference maker.
We also added Miguel Vargas for $2 ($1). Didn’t think that we would get there on price, but it happened to work out for us.
Very surprised to see both Taijuan Walker and Jonah Bride go unopposed for $1 bids. I’d have spent much more on each of them had I missed on any of my preferred targets.
The drops on the six additions were: Canning, McLain, Falter, Brown, Stripling and Kepler. May end up regretting the Kepler one if he ever turns it back on, but feeling very good about this FAAB period as a whole right now.
As far as any interesting drops from around the league this week, this is the first time that I can honestly say that nothing jumped off the page at me. Nothing.
There’s a price to be paid for swapping out six players this week though – including some of the higher priced options on the board. Our already limited FAAB budget is now on life support at $39. It’s going to be dollar days from here on out. That’s the second lowest total in our league. For reference, Benger has $69, Gill has $88 and Gialde has $59.
Looking Ahead
While we still have a bunch of stashes on the squad, we’re at least in a position where we have a couple of decisions to make this week. We’re going to start on the pitching side, since the offense is a finely-tuned machine and all of our horrors come from our stable of arms.
We’re still waiting on the returns of Verlander and Schmidt, so they aren’t options. It sounds like Ryan Pepiot should rejoin the rotation this week though, and Walker Buehler is definitely starting against the Brewers. That would give us 12 healthy arms for nine spots. Let’s dive in.
Corbin Burnes is an every-week play, and he’s going to be in the lineup even for a single against the Red Sox. Kutter Crawford, Bowden Francis and Tyler Mahle all double. That gets us to four. Shane Baz takes on the Astros (Kikuchi), Erick Fedde goes at the Reds (Greene), Buehler goes at the Brewers (Myers), Jonathan Cannon gets the Yankees (Gil), Pepiot should get the Diamondbacks (Nelson) and DL Hall would get the Guardians (Williams) if the Brewers fit him into their rotation.
Alexis Diaz and Josh Hader each get six-game weeks. Diaz home against the Cardinals and Royals, Hader at the Rays and home against the White Sox. Sitting one of them to get an extra start in wouldn’t be the worst idea. As of now, I’m not sure which way to lean on those singles, more research is needed.
At the outset, it appears as though we don’t have any decisions to make on the hitting side, but there have been rumblings that Kerry Carpenter could rejoin the Tigers’ lineup on Tuesday, which would allow us to sit one hitter of our choice. The issue is that if we don’t get clarification on his status on Monday, it may be hard to squeeze him in. We only have a couple of hitters that don’t play on Monday, and one of them would have to sit if we’re going to wait and slide in Carpenter. That would mean either Jeff McNeil or Xavier Edwards (who only plays two the first half of the week). We’re just going to have to wait and see how lineups play out.
Where we Stand
We entered week 20 with 102.0 points in our league. That put us 19 points behind Benger at the top and 11 points behind Gill for second place. We held an 11 point lead on Dussault for third place. We finished the week at an unfortunate 101.5 points in the league. That’s 20 points behind Benger at the top and 11.5 behind Gil for second place. We hold an 11.5 point lead on fourth place, which is now held by Anthony Gialde.
We had been in 124th place overall in the overall standings for the Main Event and in 70th place for the CLQ. We have fallen to 153rd in the overall and moved up slightly to 62nd place in the CLQ standings. Still no real chance for either barring some sort of miracle.
We had hoped that last week would be the week we finally dug in our heels and started to climb up the standings, but that obviously didn’t happen. Now, with the revamped pitching staff and reinforcements on the way, it really does feel like the upcoming week could be an inflection point for our season. The charge starts now.
As always, I would love to hear your feedback on what you think of the article, the team, my decision making, the emotional roller-coaster, etc. If you’d like more insights into the CLQ or why those other two teams are struggling to keep us going there, let me know. Those that have reached out so far, I can’t tell you how much it’s been appreciated. This has probably been my favorite column to write in the 12+ years that I’ve been doing this. Just drop me a line on X (@DaveShovein) and I would be happy to discuss.
