To say that our bats bounced back over the first weekend of the season’s second half would be a massive understatement. They came out firing on all cylinders and actually may actually give us hope for the remainder of the season. The pitching – despite our limited starts – didn’t disappoint either – until Sunday’s ratio disasters kicked in again. If we can keep this momentum going though, the second half could be awfully exciting.
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Hitting Review
After a very poor hitting week heading into the All-Star break, our offense looked completely rejuvenated after a couple of days off.
We got good production out of the catching position once again, this time it was Willson Contreras leading the way – hitting .385 with a homer, two runs scored and two RBI. The younger Contreras chipped in an RBI as well, but that was it.
Paul Goldschmidt only had one hit in 12 at-bats over the weekend, but it just so happened to be a solo home run. His overall decline in production remains concerning though, and he was dropped down to seventh in the Cardinals’ lineup on Sunday. No bueno.
Xavier Edwards did his job again, hitting .300 with a run and an RBI over the weekend. We’ll take that. Jose Iglesias filled in admirably in his first appearance with the squad – hitting .455 (5-for-11) with a run scored and a stolen base.
Ezequiel Tovar only played two games over the weekend, but he did so while hitting .444 (4-for-9) with a pair of homers, three runs scored and four RBI. Welcome back. Jose Ramirez didn’t homer or steal a base, but he provided a solid batting average and chipped in a run scored and two RBI.
Randy Arozarena came out of the gate on fire, crushing three homers and driving in four runs while hitting .462 (6-for-13) over the weekend. Yowza.
David Fry had a solid weekend with three hits, two runs scored and an RBI. Rowdy Tellez had just one hit, but also chipped in three sacrifice flies. We’ll take the RBI any way we can get them.
It was another down week for Jurickson Profar, going just 2-for-12 (.167) with zeroes across the board. He has earned the chance to figure things out while in our lineup. Max Kepler chipped in a couple of hits and a couple of runs scored in nine at-bats.
Jarren Duran was an absolute monster – fresh off of his game-winning two-run homer against the National League in the All-Star Game. He continued his power display in Los Angeles over the weekend, hitting .500 (6-for-12) with two homers, seven RBI and four runs scored against the Dodgers. Studly. Teammate Tyler O’Neill hit .385, walloped a pair of homers and drove in four runs as well.
Getting 11 homers and 30 RBI from three days of games is pretty absurd. If you remember last week, we had just eight long balls and 28 RBI total over a full seven-day week. Somehow we have to keep this going.
As a team, we annihilated four of our five weekly targets on the hitting side, with the only deficit coming in stolen bases (-2.8) where we had a surplus to work with. We beat our target in runs (+1.5) and crushed our targets in both homers (+5.2) and RBI (+9.9). We also walloped our target in batting average (+0.071).
When looking at the season-long numbers, we made some major progress this weekend. We still have a surplus to work with in runs (+31) and stolen bases (+3). We’re still behind the number in homers (-14) and RBI (-52), but we took a big step in the right direction in both. We have inched even closer to the target in batting average and may beat it soon.
Pitching Review
We came into this three-game period after the break knowing that we would have to try to get some work done with very limited starts. The good news, is that with the addition of Mitch Spence and a couple of relievers via FAAB, we at least had four starts and active relievers in each of the other five roster spots – not intentionally taking any zeroes.
Things got started off on the right foot as staff ace Corbin Burnes took the hill against the Rangers on Friday night. The Orioles gave him four runs of support before he even took the mound and Burnes made sure that it stood up – allowing just one run on two hits and four walks over his six innings, striking out six batters along the way. One start into the second half, one victory. That’s what we like to see.
We even added a save to our total on Friday night as Josh Hader slammed the door on the Mariners with a scoreless ninth inning.
On Saturday afternoon, FAAB addition Mitch Spence took the hill against the Angels. Like Burnes on Friday night, Spence got ample support from his offense as the A’s put up three runs in the opening inning and piled on four more in the fourth. Spence just needed to avoid a disaster, which he did by allowing two runs on eight walks+hits with three punchouts over 5 1/3 innings. We’re looking for more in the WHIP and strikeout departments, but as a streaming option we’ll take this result every single time. Two starts, two wins.
Once again, on Saturday night Hader capped things off by closing out a two-run victory over the Mariners to snag our second save of the week. We nearly picked up a bullpen victory as well on Saturday night, as Trevor Megill worked a scoreless bottom half of the 10th inning and then the Brewers scored two runs in the top half of the 11th to put him in line for a win. Unfortunately, Jakob Junis served up a two-out, two-run homer that re-tied the game and cost Megill his victory.
Shane Baz took the hill on Sunday afternoon and got the run support that his predecessors did – getting three early runs from the Rays – but unlike Burnes and Spence, he couldn’t convert that into a win. While he hurled 3 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball, he did so while assaulting our WHIP by allowing four hits and five walks while recording only one strikeout. He’s looking like a difficult start in single start weeks going forward.
Luke Weaver got into the game on Sunday and wound up giving up a run over 1 2/3 innings against the Rays with an acceptable WHIP and a couple of strikeouts. Better than taking a zero in that spot.
Megill also got a save chance on Sunday, and while he did allow a couple of runs, he rebounded to get the job done and earn our third save of the week. We did not see Alexis Diaz at all over the weekend.
Ben Joyce also threw 2/3 of an inning on Sunday and gave us a good WHIPping with two walks and an infield single, but didn’t allow any earned runs. The Angels then pushed five runs across to give him the lead – but the official scorer in Oakland used his discretion to say that Joyce was too ineffective to earn a victory and gave it to Luis Garcia instead – who entered the game after the Halos took the lead. Wonderful.
Once again, our pitching week came down to Kutter Crawford taking the hill on Sunday night baseball, and this time it was against a player that we just cut in James Paxton. This time, it didn’t go in our favor. Crawford gave up five home runs – six runs total – on seven hits in five innings in a loss to the Dodgers. Even worse, Paxton was the victor in the ballgame. Oof.
We entered Sunday with a sub-2.00 ERA and a minuscule WHIP. You wouldn’t know it after Sunday’s debacle.
Overall for the week, we hit our target in wins (+0.1) and saves (+1.4) while falling short in strikeouts (-8.6). We were crushing our ratios prior to Sunday’s disaster outings and now we’re further behind both numbers there. So unbelievably frustrating.
On the season, we’re now chasing big in strikeouts (-53) and wins (-14) while we hold a small surplus in saves (+2). The ratios probably aren’t going to make it to the area that we need, but we’ll keep fighting to gain what we can there.
FAAB Plan
This is another week where I’m having a very hard time trying to put together a plan on what exactly to do here. We need to continue to be aggressive and churn the roster, maximize starts on the pitching side to chase victories and make sure that we have enough flexibility to maximize at-bats on the hitting side. The problem is that it’s difficult to do all of those things simultaneously – especially while holding so many stashes and/or injured players.
We lost another player to the injured list on Sunday as Ryan Pepiot was diagnosed with an infection in his knee and is expected to miss a couple of weeks. He’s been so good this season, and there’s optimism that he’ll be able to return right after that two weeks are up, so we can’t consider dropping him at this stage. The season is winding down though, and if he were to miss say four weeks, perhaps the decision would be different. It’s a double-whammy too, as Pepiot was lined up to start twice next week.
In addition to Pepiot residing on the injured list, we’re still holding Justin Verlander on the pitching side as well. He threw a 40-pitch bullpen session on Saturday and will throw another early next week. Then he’ll probably face live hitters and will probably need at least one minor league rehab start. If we have held him this long, we can probably wait another couple of weeks.
Walker Buehler is being stashed, and he’s done fixing his mechanics at Cressey Sports Performance in Florida and is scheduled to face live hitters in Kentucky early next week before rejoining the Dodgers to work with their coaching staff. Given their rotation needs, there’s a reasonable expectation that he could be back within a couple of weeks as well. That makes him hard to drop.
Clarke Schmidt has progressed to throwing bullpen sessions, and of all the stashes I believe that he has the highest upside for the remainder of the season – especially in the wins department. Probably have to hold him another week as well. That’s four of our seven bench spots.
We’re also holding two guys on the injured list on the offensive side in Luis Rengifo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Rengifo has been one of our team’s top hitters all season and he has already progressed to doing most baseball activities – just has yet to face live pitching. He’s a hold. Kiner-Falefa may be another story. While his flexibility is amazing and he has been great for us, both Xavier Edwards and Jose Iglesias have been serviceable while he has been shelved and we simply need the roster spot for other things at this point. Plus, there haven’t been any updates on his status and his return doesn’t appear to be imminent. If we don’t drop him, we may not have any bench bats for next week, which limits our ability to maximize at-bats and puts us at the mercy of any mid-week injuries.
So IKF can be a drop. Spence had been picked up just to give us a start over the weekend, so he can go as well. Luke Weaver was added just so we didn’t take a zero for the weekend, he can be replaced. Ben Joyce is trickier. We currently have three closers, but the expectation is that we are going to lose one of them after Devin Williams returns, which is likely a week or two away. If Carlos Estevez gets dealt by the Angels at the trade deadline, there’s a good chance that Joyce ascends to that role. It probably makes sense to hang onto him for another week or two to see how that plays out, but after his shaky outing on Sunday, who knows.
So three drops, maybe a fourth. David Fry is always on the fence as well, though he had a nice weekend to perhaps save his spot for another week.
So what do we need to add? Let’s start by looking at how many doubles we have lined up for next week and what’s available in that section on the waiver wire. As things currently stand, our only double would be Erick Fedde. Definitely would like to add one or two there if we can. Let’s check out what’s available.
Carlos Carrasco is probably the top option available, but the matchups aren’t terrific. He’ll take on a surging Tigers’ squad in Cleveland and then the Phillies in Philadelphia. Hogan Harris has had mixed results this season, but he’s in line for two starts against the Astros and then at the Angels. That deserves to be on the list at least. Randy Vasquez has been pretty solid over his last four starts, he gets at the Nationals and a tough one at the Orioles. Add him to the list.
Yonny Chirinos was absolutely destroyed his last time out. He’s tentatively lined up for two starts against the Mets and at the Brewers, but could get replaced at any time. Probably not worth the risk when rolling Joyce may be a better play for strikeouts and win equity. Old friend German Marquez is lined up for two starts, vs. the Red Sox at Coors and at the Giants. He’s always been someone that I can’t quit and he’ll be on the list somewhere. Osvaldo Bido could double for the A’s but he’s not stretched out enough to earn a win most likely.
Any singles that we may want to use? Jake Bloss is tentatively expected to start against the Athletics on Tuesday. Maybe that’s a shot at a victory, though he has yet to go five innings through his first two big-league starts. He’d then line up for a double at home against the Pirates and Rays the following week. Not the worst idea. Come to think of it, Spence lines up against the Angels and Jack Kochanowicz again on Thursday, and his single may be better than any single available on the wire. It may be worth it to hang on to him if we can’t get one of those top doubles.
On the hitting side, Eddie Rosario is back to an everyday role in the Braves’ outfield and he draws a boatload of right-handers this week. He’s probably worth a look. After that, I have middling interest in Victor Robles, Jeff McNeil, Stuart Fairchild, Brooks Baldwin, Max Schuemann, Jorge Polanco and Sam Hilliard. Nothing too exciting, but need to have at least one bench bat for next week.
If I had to guess, we probably win Carrasco ($12 to $5), Eddie Rosario ($9 to $8), German Marquez ($3 unopposed) and Yonny Chirinos ($1 unopposed). Godspeed.
FAAB Results
Let’s see what we’ve won!
The biggest bids of the week were for players that we had no interest in – Jon Singleton ($34 unopposed), Amed Rosario ($26 unopposed), Victor Vodnik ($22 to $8), Joe Musgrove ($18 to $2) and Tyler Phillips ($17 to $11).
We did have serious interest in Eddie Rosario, but we just missed our bid on the Eagle, as he flew to a competitor for $15 to our runner-up bid of $9. We also had interest in Victor Robles, but didn’t get to the $14 that Phil Dussault ultimately won him for.
A few names down the list, we picked up our first score in Carlos Carrasco for $12 ($8). We went a couple of extra bucks to get him and it paid off. Now just have to hope that his double yields some good results. Luke Weaver was the drop on that one.
The next addition was Jeff McNeil for $5 ($3). He covers outfield and middle infield for us, giving us a solid bench option for next week. IKF was the drop there.
We also added the upcoming two-start week of Randy Vazquez ($4 to $3) with Ben Joyce as the drop. In addition, we landed German Marquez ($3 unopposed) with Spence as the drop. Have to chase that wins target somehow, right?
Looking around the league, here’s the potential drops that looked intriguing at first glance: Matt McLain, Triston Casas. That’s it, that’s the list.
Looking Ahead
The one thing about having a short bench is that there aren’t many decisions to make regarding our lineup for next week. With only one extra hitter, the lone decision really comes down to playing Max Kepler for likely two games against the Phillies or McNeil for four against a variety of right-handers. It’s an easy win for McNeil.
The same thing goes for the pitching side. At a glance, things look pretty straightforward to me. Burnes and Crawford are every-week starts. Fedde, Carrasco, Marquez and Vazquez double. We still have three closers for the time being. That leaves out just Shane Baz, who has struggled since joining the Rays’ rotation and has yet to complete five innings. He draws a matchup against the Reds and Nick Lodolo. We could conceivably start him over one of the closers if we chose to, but he’s probably the odd-man out this time around.
If the lack of options on both sides of the ball winds up being a major impediment to maximizing our stats this week, perhaps we’ll have to cut some of the stashes next week, but for now, let’s see if we can replicate this weekend’s success on offense while avoiding the ratio meltdowns that seemingly plague us every single Sunday.
Where we Stand
We finished last week with 103 points in our league, putting us 13.5 points behind Carter Gill for second place and 17.5 points behind Griffin Benger at the top. We had a 14 point lead on Phil Dussault in fourth place.
We actually spent the majority of this week right around 106 league points, peaking as high as 107. Sunday’s ratio debacles once again led to a tumble down the standings though, bringing us back to where we started the week at 103 points. That puts us 11.5 behind Gill for second place and 19.5 behind Benger at the top. We hold a 12 point lead on Dussault in fourth place.
We also finished the first half of the season in 151st place out of 855 teams in the overall competition and in 55th place in the chase for the Champions League Qualifier (CLQ). Entering Sunday, we had climbed back inside the top-100 overall, but finished the week at 127th. The OC team continues to flounder and crush our chances in the CLQ as we’re buried in 56th place there.
Prior to Sunday’s setback, I was feeling extremely optimistic about our chances, and even after another punch in the gut I’m still feeling remarkably upbeat. Maybe it’s the extra rest and relaxation that I had over the All-Star break, but I have a feeling that Week 18 will be the one we look back on and say that was the week that changed the tide of our entire season. Let’s go get it done.
As always, I would love to hear your feedback on what you think of the article, the team, my decision making, the emotional roller-coaster, etc. If you’d like more insights into the CLQ or why those other two teams are struggling to keep us going there, let me know. Those that have reached out so far, I can’t tell you how much it’s been appreciated. This has probably been my favorite column to write in the 12+ years that I’ve been doing this. Just drop me a line on X (@DaveShovein) and I would be happy to discuss.