Another week, same story. The offense continued its torrid pace that we saw in the first weekend coming out of the break, absolutely destroying all of our targets. The pitching was the complete opposite, another absolute disaster. If things keep going like this we are going to be in serious trouble.
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Hitting Review
It’s really difficult to find fault with anything on the hitting side this week. We came out strong in the first weekend after the All-Star break and I had asked that the power surge continue through Week 18. The guys seemingly took that request to heart as nearly everyone chipped in this week.
William Contreras had another down week by his standards, which still meant hitting .318, but with only one run and one RBI to show for it. His older brother Willson picked up the slack on the power front, crushing a pair of homers, scoring four times and driving in three runs. Overall that’s still strong production from the catcher spots.
Paul Goldschmidt ran into a couple of balls and finished the week with a .304 average, two homers and three RBI. Perhaps moving him down in the Cardinals’ lineup has stirred something up inside of him. Keep it up.
Xavier Edwards has been phenomenal since he entered our lineup a couple of weeks ago. He hit a blistering .478 (11-for-23) on the week with a homer, six runs scored, five RBI and five stolen bases. He has been moved up to the leadoff spot in the Marlins’ lineup following the Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade and he responded by slugging his first career home run and hitting for the cycle on Sunday against the Brewers. He’s an absolute stud.
Ezequiel Tovar continued his hot-hitting ways, leading the team with 13 hits on the week. That equated to a .406 average (13-for-32) with six runs scored a homer and four RBI. He has been a key cog of our offense all season.
Jose Ramirez only hit .269 on the week, but he managed to hit one over the boards and swipe a pair of bases so we won’t get angry with him.
Tyler O’Neill delivered a pair of multi-homer games on the week, ultimately hitting .429 with four homers, five runs scored and eight RBI. When he’s hot, he can carry an offense. Randy Arozarena started for us in the front half of the week before he was dealt to the Mariners and swiped a pair of bases with a poor batting average.
David Fry hit .333 on the week, but it was an empty average as it came with just two runs scored and one RBI. I still like the positional flexibility and the lineup spot, but I’m waiting on the production to return.
Jurickson Profar lit the world on fire this week, hitting .320 (8-for-25) with four homers, seven runs scored and eight RBI. He has been by far the best FAAB addition to our offense this season.
It feels like Jarren Duran had a down week, and he still hit .276 with seven runs scored, a homer and four RBI. That’s just how good he has been all season. Luis Rengifo returned from the IL and slid into the lineup over the weekend, going just 1-for-10 (.100) though it came with two runs scored, an RBI and a stolen base. Welcome back.
Rowdy Tellez wound up with just 11 total at-bats on the week thanks to a sore back that cost him a few games. He still managed to homer and drive in a pair of runs while hitting .455. Can’t really complain there.
It was a down week overall for Jose Iglesias, who hit just .143 with three runs scored and an RBI. Perhaps the shine is finally wearing off there. His teammate Jeff McNeil jumped right into the action in his first week on our squad – hitting .346 (9-for-26) with six runs scored, two homers and six RBI. He’s obviously not going to do that every week, but we’ll ride the hot hand for the time being.
When looking at our weekly targets from the offense, it’s nothing but green across the entire board which is what we absolutely love to see. We came in with a massive surplus in runs (+17.1), home runs (+7.3) and RBI (+11.6) and surged past the target in stolen bases as well (+2.2). That came with a huge boost in batting average as well (+0.058).
With that strong effort, we are now green in three of the five categories on offense for the season, while making up serious ground in the other two. We hold a surplus in runs (+49), stolen bases (+3) and batting average (+.001) while we’re chasing in homers (-8) and RBI (-42).
Pitching Review
Ugh. To call this another frustrating week on the pitching side would be a massive understatement.
We started the week by getting word midway through Monday afternoon that FAAB addition German Marquez was heading back to the injured list and wouldn’t be making either of the two starts that we expected from him on the week. Perfect. We had another arm on the bench that we could have subbed in for him – Shane Baz – except that the Rays played in the lone early afternoon game on Monday so he was already locked on the bench by the time that the Marquez news dropped. That means we started the week off by taking a zero in that spot instead of getting two starts that we had paid for. Lovely.
When we finally had someone take the hill for us on Monday night, it wasn’t pretty. Big FAAB addition Carlos Carrasco took on the Tigers in the first of his two starts for the week and imploded for six runs on nine hits over his 5 1/3 innings of work. He did manage to chip in six strikeouts, but the ratio damage would be a recurring theme throughout the week.
Erick Fedde also took the mound on Monday night and unlike Carrasco, he actually pitched well, giving up two runs on three hits over his 6 1/3 frames with five punchouts. However, the White Sox offense didn’t do enough to earn him a victory.
On Tuesday night, our final FAAB addition – Randy Vasquez – toed the slab against the Nationals. Unlike his predecessors, he went out and absolutely dominated – firing six innings of scoreless baseball in a victory over the Nationals. He only struck out one batter on the night, but the pristine ratios and the victory were absolutely necessary after the rough start to the week. It would get so much worse.
Trevor Megill also made an appearance on Tuesday, working a scoreless ninth inning to preserve a one-run lead against the Cubs and nab his 20th save of the season. Such a boss.
Our staff ace, Corbin Burnes, got on the mound on Thursday and was staked to an early 6-0 lead against the Marlins. Burnes had surrendered just one run through his first seven innings in that one, but returned for the eighth where he was tagged for two additional runs before exiting. Not to worry though, the O’s still had a 6-3 lead heading to the ninth. That was until Craig Kimbrel imploded and cost Burnes his hard-earned victory. Decent enough ratios and five strikeouts are fine, but we really could’ve used that victory. That one seemed to be in the bag.
On Friday night we got an Alexis Diaz sighting, working a scoreless 10th inning to pick up his 20th save of the season and our second save of the week. Nicely done.
While we usually save all of our ratio implosions for Sunday, they struck on Saturday instead this time around. Carrasco made his second start of the week, and looked extremely sharp with five strikeouts through three shutout innings against the Phillies to start his day. Then he got crushed for six runs in the fourth inning and was bounced from the game. Oof.
Kutter Crawford then served up a pair of homers and three runs in the opening inning against the Yankees, ultimately allowing five runs with a pitiful WHIP over 4 2/3 innings in that one. The five strikeouts weren’t enough to offset the damage to the ratios.
Fedde wasn’t able to save us either in what was likely his final start with the White Sox, giving up three runs with a miserable WHIP in just four innings against the hapless Mariners. Between those three starts, we registered a 10.22 ERA and 1.87 WHIP over 12 1/3 innings of work. That’s… not ideal.
We did manage to secure a victory on Saturday night though as Josh Hader worked a scoreless top of the ninth inning against the Dodgers and was the beneficiary when Alex Bregman walked it off in the home half of the frame.
Things got even worse on Sunday as Vasquez was obliterated in the second half of his two-start week. He gave up six runs on a million baserunners in two-plus innings of work, striking out two in the process.
All in all, this was clearly our worst pitching week of the season – posting a cringe-inducing 6.68 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 43 1/3 innings with only two wins and 35 strikeouts. Missing the two-step from Marquez only added to the aggravation, but the way things were going he probably would have gotten lit up like a Christmas tree as well.
When looking at the numbers against our targets, it’s not pretty. Misses in all five categories across the board, most of them big misses. For the week we came up short in strikeouts (-20), wins (-1.8), saves (-1.2), ERA (-3.246) and WHIP (-0.281). Yikes.
Looking at the season-long numbers, and the picture doesn’t get any brighter. The lone place we are in the green is in saves (+2) and without Megill we’re going to fall back there. We’re now substantially behind the pace in strikeouts (-70) and wins (-15) and we’re never going to come back in ERA (-0.61) or WHIP (-0.103). It’s a tough spot to be in. At this point we just need to maximize starts and gain what we can in wins and strikeouts.
FAAB Plan
Never FAAB out of anger and frustration. Never FAAB out of anger and frustration. Woosa.
Trying to approach things with a clear head this week even after the complete debacle on the pitching side. Our offense has absolutely been humming along and it’s fair to say that we should be devoting the bulk of our resources to the pitching side for the duration of the season. In addition, we have so many multi-position eligible players on offense that we can handle any two mid-week injuries that come along with the way that our roster is currently constructed and avoid taking zeroes. That’s extremely helpful. Let’s see what we have as potential drops.
German Marquez is easy, he was picked up (and started) for his two-start week and we wound up taking a big zero from him. Randy Vasquez looked like he may be someone that could stick around after his gem on Tuesday, but after Sunday’s disaster he’s likely on the chopping block as well. Carlos Carrasco had pitched so well over the past month before getting absolutely destroyed in both of his starts this week. Good riddance.
After that it gets tougher. Trevor Megill has been an absolute godsend for our team and we wouldn’t even be in the realm of contention without the 20 saves that he has provided. However, with Devin Williams returning on Sunday – and taking the ball with a four-run lead in the ninth – the writing is on the wall that the Brewers intend to utilize Williams in the ninth inning right away. While his pristine ratios would help, we simply have too much ground to make up in wins and strikeouts to be starting a setup man at this stage of the season. I think he’s a drop as well.
On the hitting side, the one name that stands out if we needed another drop would be Max Kepler. His production has fallen off of a cliff since his hot start to the season, though he’s still starting against all RHP and hitting in the middle of the Twins’ lineup. He’s an option if we need another drop, but not one that we need to force. The Twins also get three left-handers next week, so it’s unlikely that we would use him during either period.
What’s out there to bid on this week? Most of the help is on the pitching side, as Robbie Ray and Clayton Kershaw have returned and are now available to bid on. Ray is going to garner the highest bid of the week, and it’s unlikely that we will even be in the mix for him with our $182 remaining. I’m going to give in my best effort (right now the bid sits at $118), I just don’t think it’ll be enough. We’ll be much lower than that on Kershaw, but he would be a nice consolation prize if we’re unsuccessful in our bid on Ray.
After that, it gets sketchy pretty quick. I have some interest in a two-start week from Griffin Canning (vs. Rockies, vs. Mets). Jonathan Cannon lines up for a decent single next week and would double the following week. Tylor Megill has been striking guys out and gets a decent single. River Ryan will probably make another start for the Dodgers. Grant Holmes is scheduled to start for the Braves on Monday and could wind up with a two-start week. Patrick Corbin and Ross Stripling could double in two weeks. None of the options are appealing, but we need arms that we can stream. It’s not going to be pretty.
Maybe Ben Joyce could be worth a look again now that Carlos Estevez has been traded and Luis Garcia is on the block. Perhaps we just should have held onto him last week with the expectation that this would occur. May come back to regret that one.
On the hitting side, there’s not a whole lot that interests me outside of a couple of stashes. Triston Casas will begin a minor league rehab assignment on Tuesday and could rejoin the Red Sox the following week if all goes well. He could make a major impact on the power side and with Rowdy Tellez banged-up it would be nice to have another first baseman that we can add to the mix. Looking even further down the line, Matt McLain is on the recovery trail and is probably three or four weeks away from making his season debut. He could be a difference-maker down the stretch as well. I’ll probably have small bids in on both hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.
If we whiff on both Ray and Kershaw, it’s going to get very ugly, very fast and our ratio tailspin is likely to continue next week. All we can do now is wait and hope for the best.
FAAB Results
Well, let’s take a peek and see what type of large bids those top two arms pulled in on Sunday night. As expected, Robbie Ray drew the highest bid of the week at $184 ($140). We gave it our best and knew that we weren’t going to be competitive there. It is what it is. Fortunately, the team winning the bid isn’t one of the ones that we’re fighting with at the top of the standings at least.
Clayton Kershaw drew out the next highest bid, as expected, though I didn’t think it would be quite that high. The Dodgers’ left-hander went for $141 with a runner-up bid of $133. We were in the mix once again but not anywhere close to the winning bid.
We also threw in a legitimate bid on Triston Casas, coming in as the runner-up at $38 behind a massive winning bid of $78 by Anthony Gialde. Wish we would have had more dry powder to fire at this one as I believe Casas will make a major impact over the final two months.
We knew that we probably made a mistake dropping Ben Joyce prematurely last week, a mistake that was compounded when the addition of German Marquez gave us a zero for the week. He was the next name off the board with a bid of $52 ($14).
League-leader Griffin Benger made a big play in an effort to add some saves by adding Luis Garcia for $44 ($1). If he doesn’t wind up getting traded, that could pay off handsomely. There has been plenty of trade chatter surrounding the veteran right-hander though.
We didn’t have bids in on any of the next three hitters, as we were pretty much set on the hitting side for this week. Dylan Moore went for $31 ($8), Connor Norby went for $23 ($8) and Tommy Edman raked in $22 ($19).
We did have interest in River Ryan on our bid lists, and we were the runner-up bid there losing $21 to $5. It probably would have been just a one-week rental, but I’m starting to get scared to see what we actually wind up with.
Scrolling, scrolling, scrolling down the list and we finally get to our first prize in Griffin Canning with a bid of $5 ($4). We need starts, we need wins, we need strikeouts. He was the best double available (aside from Ray). We’ll take it. Marquez was the drop on that one.
We also picked up Jonathan Cannon for $5 (unopposed). Cannon has been working deep into games for the White Sox, he gets a decent matchup against the Royals this week that we may or may not use, but then he may line up for a double the following week including at the Athletics. Carrasco the drop on that one.
We also heightened our WHIP risk by adding the other Megill – Tylor – for $5 ($1). He will add strikeouts and the Mets have been playing well, so there’s always a shot at a victory. He gets a nice matchup against the Angels in Los Angeles this week (Tyler Anderson) and then would take on the Rockies at Coors next week before drawing a terrific double against the Athletics and Marlins the following week. I think this will end up being a nice addition. Vasquez was the drop on that one.
The final addition wound up being a stash on offense in Matt McLain $3 to $1. I like what I’m hearing about his progress and it sounds like he could be ready to start a minor league rehab assignment in just a couple of weeks. If we get him for the full month of September, that’s a win at this price. If we wind up needing the spot before then, we can cut bait. Trevor Megill was the drop on that one.
Also, I heard Carter Gill on the Draft Champions podcast this week mentioning his interest in McLain and thinking that he could get him for $1. He’s really struggling to get production out of the middle infield and I didn’t want to see McLain dominate for him over the final month of the season. It wasn’t the reason that I placed the bid, but it was at least a consideration.
Scrolling through the drop list to see if there’s anything that piques my interest, it looks like Michael Lorenzen, Evan Carter, A.J. Puk. There really isn’t a whole lot out there.
Looking Ahead
We’re going to start on the pitching side, as that’s where our major concerns with this team are. We want to be able to trust the arms that we have, and now we’re in a position that we don’t have a choice as we’re holding nine healthy arms and they all have to pitch for us.
That means that we get Corbin Burnes for his double (vs. Jays, at Guardians) and FAAB addition Griffin Canning for his (vs. Rockies, vs. Mets). They’ll join singles from Kutter Crawford (at Rangers), Erick Fedde (at Twins if he isn’t traded), Jonathan Cannon (vs. Royals), Shane Baz (at Astros) and Tylor Megill (at Angels). It’s not pretty, but we need this group to get the job done for us.
That’s nine starts lined up. I want five wins, 50+ strikeouts and a sub-3.00 ERA from them as a whole. That’s what it’s going to take to start our charge up the standings.
On the offensive side of the ledger, we still have two healthy bench bats to work with, so we need to find really any two players on our offense to sit for the week. One of them will be Max Kepler, who gets three games against the Mets but two of them are against southpaws. That’s the easy one. It legitimately gets tougher after that. David Fry is my early lean, as he’ll get three against the Tigers and likely all RHP. Jurickson Profar only gets two games against the Dodgers to start the week, but he’s been so good lately that I don’t want to sit him even for two games. Rowdy Tellez is the other possibility, as he missed the final two games over the weekend with a back issue – though he pinch-hit and hit a double on Sunday. He’s probably only going to play two with one LHP on tap, so the decision between him and Fry could go either way.
Where we Stand
Coming into the week we were sitting at 103 league points, which was 11.5 points behind Carter Gill for second place and 19.5 points behind Griffin Benger at the top of the mountain. We held a 12 point edge on Phil Dussault in fourth place. We finished the week with 102.5 league points after the disaster on the pitching side. That puts us 21 points behind Benger at the top and 11 behind Gill for second place. Our lead on Dussault in fourth is shrinking, down to just seven points.
Looking at the overall standings, we entered the week in 127th place overall out of 855 teams and in 56th place in the CLQ standings. We finished the week with a small step up to 118th place in the overall and 52nd place in the CLQ.
We can’t keep relying entirely on the offense to carry the load, there are only so many points available there. We desperately need a strong week on the pitching side to get us back on track.
As always, I would love to hear your feedback on what you think of the article, the team, my decision making, the emotional roller-coaster, etc. If you’d like more insights into the CLQ or why those other two teams are struggling to keep us going there, let me know. Those that have reached out so far, I can’t tell you how much it’s been appreciated. This has probably been my favorite column to write in the 12+ years that I’ve been doing this. Just drop me a line on X (@DaveShovein) and I would be happy to discuss.