St. Louis Cardinals
2023 record: 71-91 (.438)
Fifth Place, NL Central
Team ERA: 4.79 ERA (24th)
Team OPS: .742 OPS (15th)
What Went Right
The Cardinals got off to an extremely slow start, and wound up finishing dead-last in the NL Central, missing the postseason for the first time since 2018. However, there were some positive developments for the franchise as several intriguing prospects and younger players, including Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, Masyn Winn, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Drew Rom, got plenty of experience at the big league level, especially in the closing few weeks of a dismal 2023 campaign. Both Walker and Winn have the stratospheric potential to blossom into potential franchise cornerstones moving forward, but hit some turbulence in their first exposure to the majors. While Liberatore and Rom also struggled, they each showed some flashes of immense upside, and should get an extended look in the Cardinals’ starting rotation mix next season. Last offseason big-ticket free agent acquisition Willson Contreras’ defensive struggles reached the point that the club removed him from the catching equation altogether in early May before ultimately reversing course. The 31-year-old slugging backstop finished with a team-leading .826 OPS in 125 games in his Cardinals debut. Unfortunately, the rest of St. Louis’ veteran-laden lineup and starting rotation crumbled around him, resulting in the franchises worst season in nearly two decades.
What Went Wrong
Let’s start on the offensive side of the ledger where Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado cobbled together arguably their worst seasons of their respective careers. The tandem of veteran stalwarts remain the foundational building blocks of St. Louis’ lineup, but their struggles juxtaposed by injuries and persistent struggles of younger players around them resulted in the Cardinals’ lineup finishing as a merely league-average unit. Meanwhile, the issues on the pitching side of the ledger ran far deeper and seem more problematic from a long-term perspective. A veteran-laden starting rotation headlined by Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery struggled to the point that both Flaherty and Montgomery were jettisoned at the trade deadline to the Orioles and Rangers, respectively. Of that quarter, Mikolas is the only lock to return next season. Youngsters like Liberatore, Thompson and Jake Woodford struggled in limited opportunities following their departure. Unfortunately, the bullpen further exacerbated the club’s pitching issues, finishing with the seventh-worst ERA of any unit in baseball. There are serious issues for the club to address with that group outside of closer Ryan Helsley.
Fantasy Slants
** Jordan Walker was the talk of the Grapefruit League, parlaying a sizzling-hot spring training into a spot on the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster. The 21-year-old top prospect struggled out of the gate to earn a late-April demotion back to Triple-A Memphis. He wound up returning in early June and finished with a respectable .787 OPS with 16 homers and seven stolen bases across 465 plate appearances in 117 games. He possesses one of the highest ceilings of any young hitter in the game and could rapidly evolve into a five-category impact fantasy contributor. His time is coming and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Walker become a popular middle-round breakout candidate in fantasy circles this offseason.
** Matthew Liberatore possesses the highest upside of any starter in the Cardinals’ rotation mix heading into the offseason. The 23-year-old southpaw spun an eight-inning gem on August 10 against the Rays, but wound up dealing with a lower back issue shortly afterwards that sapped his effectiveness and limited him to a relief role over the final few weeks of the regular season. He figures to get an extended look in St. Louis’ starting rotation this upcoming season, but the lack of a stratospheric strikeout rate limits his potential fantasy ceiling. However, he’s looking like an interesting late-round gamble for fantasy managers next spring.
** Despite missing three months due to a mid-June right forearm strain, Ryan Helsley remained one of the better closing options in the fantasy landscape during the 2023 campaign, converting 14 of 19 save opportunities to go along with a 2.45 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 52/17 K/BB ratio across 36 2/3 innings (33 appearances). While he wasn’t as dominant as last year’s breakthrough season, the hard-throwing stopper will likely remain a top-15 closing option for fantasy managers heading into next spring.
** Masyn Winn finally received the call to the majors in late August after posting a stellar .834 OPS with 18 homers and 17 stolen bases across 498 plate appearances in 105 games for Triple-A Memphis. The 21-year-old middle infielder, who projects as the organization’s shortstop of the future, struggled in his first taste of the big leagues, batting .172 (21-for-122) with two homers and two steals in 137 plate appearances over 37 games. It’s possible he’ll wind up requiring some extra seasoning in the minors to open the 2024 campaign, but he offers enough power/speed combo upside to merit consideration as a late-round sleeper candidate.
** We typically refrain from discussing hypothetical scenarios in this space, but there might not be a more compelling “change of scenery” candidate in baseball than Tyler O’Neill heading into the 2024 campaign. The 28-year-old slugger is just two years removed from a 34-homer, 15-steal breakout season and is coming off a pair of injury-plagued campaigns in which he played just 168 games combined. He still has two seasons of team control remaining before reaching free agency, but it’s possible the Cardinals will use him as bait on the trade market this offseason to shore up some of their pitching issues. His fantasy stock would increase exponentially if he wound up being traded to an extremely hitter-friendly environment.
Key Free Agents
Adam Wainwright, Drew VerHagen
Team Needs
Pitching. Pitching. Pitching. Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has already discussed the possibility of adding multiple veteran starting pitchers this offseason via free agency to fill the numerous holes in the club’s rotation. However, some additions on the offensive side can’t be ruled out either as the club still has some outfield question marks and depth issues. If the Cardinals are going to return to contention they’ll need some of their younger former top prospects to emerge as All-Star caliber performers in addition to hitting on some of their offseason pitching acquisitions.
