Seattle Mariners
2023 record: 88-74 (.543)
Third Place, AL West
Team ERA: 3.74 ERA (3rd)
Team OPS: .734 OPS (16th)
What Went Right
Seattle rode a surreal second-half hot streak from franchise cornerstone Julio Rodríguez to the precipice of their second consecutive postseason appearance before being eliminated from playoff contention during the final weekend of the regular season. Seattle’s starting rotation was once again anchored by stalwarts Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, who combined this season to spearhead a pitching staff that finished third-best from a run-prevention standpoint. Talented rookies Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo combined to make 43 starts, and showed plenty of promise as mid-rotation stabilizers moving forward. The emergence of Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash as elite high-leverage relievers, in addition to breakthrough campaigns from offseason acquisitions Justin Topa, Gabe Speier and Tayler Saucedo, helped make Seattle’s bullpen one of the strongest groups in baseball.
What Went Wrong
It’s relatively easy to imagine a scenario in which the Mariners edged out either the Astros or Rangers for a playoff berth, and wound up making a deep postseason run. Despite a transcendent second-half from Rodríguez, and one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, the remainder of Seattle’s offense simply didn’t produce enough to propel them into October. Marquee offseason acquisition Teoscar Hernández, who was expected to serve as a primary offensive catalyst in his Seattle debut following a trade from the Blue Jays, finished with a career-worst .741 OPS. It’s highly likely that he’ll wind up somewhere else this offseason as a free agent. Simply put, there are plenty of avenues for improvement on the offensive side of the ledger this offseason as it’s easy to envision Seattle’s front office targeting significant improvements at first base, second base, right field and designated hitter. Despite the emergence of several excellent younger relievers, it’s worth noting that veteran closer Paul Sewald became the lynchpin of Arizona’s eventual World Series-bound bullpen after being jettisoned by the Mariners at the trade deadline. It’s the type of glaring misstep that looms large for Seattle after missing the playoffs entirely. We’d also be remiss if we didn’t mention that southpaw Robbie Ray, who remains under contract through 2026, made just one start this season before undergoing Tommy John surgery, which will likely keep him sidelined until the second half of the 2024 campaign.
Fantasy Slants
** Julio Rodríguez got off to a frosty start at the dish, but wound up slashing a sublime .308/.362/.578 with 19 homers and 15 steals in 68 games following the Midsummer Classic, to record his first career 30-homer, 30-steal campaign, finishing with 32 homers and 37 stolen bases across 714 plate appearances in 155 games. Unreal. The 22-year-old fantasy superstar has vastly exceeded even the most optimistic forecasts over the last two years, and will likely be the second-overall selection next spring in fantasy drafts after fellow superstar outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. He’s a transcendent slugger with a real chance to go down as one of the greatest players in franchise history.
** Luis Castillo was the model of consistency this season for the Mariners, yielding three earned runs or fewer in 29 of his 33 starts, finishing with a sparkling 3.34 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 219/56 K/BB ratio across 197 innings of work. The 30-year-old righty is one of the few reliable workhorses left in the game, which should make him a consensus top-10 fantasy option at the position until further notice.
** Cal Raleigh became the first catcher to eclipse 27 home runs in back-to-back seasons since Salvador Perez accomplished the feat from 2017 to 2018. The 26-year-old backstop launched a career-high 30 round-trippers this season, becoming just the seventh catcher in the last decade to reach the lofty 30-homer threshold. He’s not much of a help in the batting average department, but he’s not a complete sinkhole either, which should make him a top-10 option at the position moving forward as a reliable four-category contributor. There isn’t a ton of upside moving forward, but fantasy managers can bank on 20-plus homers and reliable counting stats.
** Andrés Muñoz missed some time due to injury this season, but still managed to record a career-best 13 saves, while also notching a microscopic 2.94 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 67/22 K/BB ratio across 49 innings (52 appearances). The hard-throwing 24-year-old righty boasts one of the most impressive arsenals of any reliever in baseball, and looks like Seattle’s closer of the future with Paul Sewald no longer in the mix. Given his lofty strikeout totals, Muñoz represents a borderline top-15 option for fantasy managers heading into drafts next spring, and has a chance to finish in the top-10 overall at the position, if everything clicks.
** George Kirby boasts some of the best control in baseball history as he seems almost allergic to handing out free passes at this juncture, walking just 41 batters across 320 2/3 innings (56 starts) over the last two seasons. The 25-year-old right-hander, who finished this season with a strong 3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 172/19 K/BB ratio across 190 2/3 innings (31 starts), doesn’t miss a ton of bats, which limits his realistic fantasy upside, but he’s one of the more low-variance, high-volume options for fantasy managers among starting pitchers moving forward. It’s an unheralded skillset in the modern era, but Kirby’s unique high-volume, WHIP-boosting talents make him worthy of a borderline top-10 selection among starting pitchers in fantasy drafts next spring.
Key Free Agents
Teoscar Hernández
Team Needs
It’s abundantly clear that the Mariners need to make some upgrades to their lineup heading into the 2024 campaign after replacement-level production at first base, second base, third base and designated hitter, wound up torpedoing their playoff aspirations. They’ll continue to roll the dice when it comes to depth acquisitions on the pitching side of the ledger, which they’ve had success with in recent years. However, they need to find some complementary sluggers to pair with Rodríguez if they’re going to compete with the Astros and Rangers moving forward.
