Kansas City Royals
2023 record: 56-106 (.346)
Fifth place, AL Central
Team ERA: 5.17 (28th)
Team OPS: .700 (25th)
What Went Right
Bobby Witt Jr. blossomed into a star, hitting 30 homers and dismissing questions about his defense at shortstop. While plate discipline might never be a strength, his K:BB ratio went from 4.5: 1 as a rookie to a more palatable 3:1 as a sophomore. Cole Ragans arrived from Texas in the Aroldis Chapman trade and quickly became the Royals’ best pitcher, showcasing the kind of stuff that might make him a legitimate ace. The Royals also received a great stretch run from fellow trade acquisition Nelson Velásquez. The 24-year-old hit 14 homers in 40 games for his new team.
What Went Wrong
Well, it says a lot that Ragans and Velásquez were a respective second and sixth on the team in bWAR. No. 3 was a part-time center fielder with a .662 OPS (Kyle Isbel). No. 4 was the backup catcher (Freddy Fermin). No. 5 was the fifth outfielder (Dairon Blanco). Zack Greinke was actually the No. 2 pitcher on the list, and he went 2-15 with a 5.06 ERA.
The pitching was a total mess. Brady Singer, expected to be the Royals’ ace, posted a 5.52 ERA in 29 starts before finishing the season on the IL with a strained back. Daniel Lynch IV made it through just nine starts before succumbing to a shoulder injury. Jordan Lyles, the Royals’ biggest offseason addition, went 6-17 with a 6.28 ERA. And no one besides Ragans was able to step up. The offense lost Vinnie Pasquantino two months in, and most of the other young players failed to show any progress, with MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, Michael Massey and Drew Waters all putting their futures into doubt.
Fantasy Slants
** Witt provided top-10 overall value while hitting .276 with 30 homers, 97 runs, 96 RBI and 49 steals. Witt wasn’t all that efficient on the basepaths, getting caught stealing an MLB-high 15 times, but one imagines he’ll get better there, just like he improved so much on defense this season. He’s on the short list of baseball’s fastest players. The offense could pick up some, too; Statcast had him with an xBA of .297 and xSLG of .535 (.495 actual) this year. He’ll likely be a top-five pick in mixed leagues next spring.
** Ragans averaged 92.1 mph with his fastball in nine starts for the Rangers in 2022. Texas shifted him to the pen this year, and though he struggled to a 5.92 ERA in 17 appearances, it was very notable that his velocity jumped four mph. Incredibly, he held on to those gains and even went up a tad further after the Royals transitioned him back to the rotation. He wound up with an 89/27 K/BB ratio in 71 2/3 innings over 12 starts for Kansas City. If there’s a concern here, it’s that pitchers who experience velocity jumps like this often seem to wind up hurt. If Ragans can avoid that, though, it’s easy to imagine him performing as one of the AL’s top pitchers next year.
** Beyond Witt at shortstop, a returning Pasquantino at first base and the stalwart Salvador Perez behind the plate, the Royals have plenty of offensive question marks for 2024. Velásquez has earned an outfield spot, and Maikel Garcia probably did enough in his age-23 season to stick at third. Massey will be back in the mix at second, but he should face competition from Nick Loftin, who hit .323 in 19 games during his September audition. The Royals could also add a veteran at either second or third, as Garcia would be capable of making the switch to second. The outfield would definitely need considerable help if the Royals wanted to get back into contention next year. Since that’s probably too much to ask for, the team could give Melendez, Waters, Isbel and Edward Olivares one more shot to see who might be keepers. Loftin and prospect Tyler Gentry could also be part of that mix. Pratto shouldn’t be; he’s a dreadful outfielder and he seems in need of more Triple-A time anyway.
** Melendez is one guy who might benefit from a change of scenery. In part because they were hoping it’d help his bat, the Royals gave up on him as a catcher a month into the season. It didn’t make a difference initially, but Melendez did wind up batting .272/.364/.497 in 195 PA over the final two months. What was discouraging is that his strikeout rate jumped from 24.5% as a rookie to 28.2% as a sophomore. He’s also lacking defensively in the outfield. If another team picked him up and put him back behind the plate, he might be pretty interesting. As is, he’s not set to have catcher eligibility in traditional leagues next year, sapping him up of much of his fantasy potential.
** One very positive development at the end of the year was 26-year-old James McArthur throwing 16 1/3 scoreless innings with a 19/0 K/BB ratio in September. He’s quite clearly the top internal candidate to serve as the Royals’ closer next year. Still, the team will likely bring a veteran or two into the mix. Signing Chapman to a bargain deal last winter netted them Ragans this summer, and while it’s doubtful they’ll get that fortunate again, they’re going to have to try.
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Key Free Agents
Zack Greinke, Brad Keller
Team Needs
Under Dayton Moore, the Royals were initially positioning themselves to reemerge as a contender in 2022, but setbacks in 2021 led to a change of plans. When things went even worse than expected in 2022, Moore was let go and his protégé, J.J. Piccolo, took over. The team bottomed out even further this year, matching the 2005 club for the worst record in team history. No miracle turnaround is likely, as the pitching isn’t there right now and the money won’t be spent to attempt big gains in 2024. Instead, Piccolo will likely again settle for a few modest additions, most of them on the pitching side, and hope that enough progress is made to dream of an AL Central run in 2025.
