Colorado Rockies
2023 record: 59-103 (.364)
Fifth place, NL West
Team ERA: 5.67 (30th)
Team OPS: .715 (19th)
What Went Right
Nolan Jones, picked up from the Guardians for second base prospect Juan Brito the previous November, proved to be the Rockies’ best player despite not debuting until May 26, finishing with a .931 OPS, 20 homers and 20 steals in 106 games. That’s pretty much it. The Rockies weren’t baseball’s worst team, but they probably had fewer positive takeaways from 2023 than any other club.
What Went Wrong
Except for the guy who was released (Jose Uréna), every member of the Rockies’ Opening Day rotation finished the season on the IL. Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela both required Tommy John surgery. None of the 10 guys who ended up starting at least five games for the team finished with a sub-5.00 ERA.
Things were also bleak offensively. Kris Bryant missed half of the year and limped to a 76 OPS+ in the 80 games in which he played. Ryan McMahon regressed. Brendan Rodgers missed two-thirds of the season with a shoulder injury and struggled after returning. Elias Díaz, the team’s All-Star, had a .647 OPS over the final four months. Jurickson Profar, the biggest offseason addition, was one of the game’s worst regulars before getting released. None of the young first basemen stepped up. Rookies Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle impressed defensively but largely struggled with the bats.
Fantasy Slants
** Particularly impressive about Jones’ excellent showing was that he hit .288/.380/.554 away from Coors Field. It should be noted, though, that it took a ridiculous .434 BABIP to achieve that. His overall .401 BABIP was the highest mark in the majors among players with 300 PA. Some of that is deserved; Rockies players tend to have high BABIPs because of their spacious home park and Jones does hit the ball pretty hard when he makes contact. Still, some regression is certain to come in 2024. It’ll also be interesting to see how he holds up as a basestealer, given that he never had more than 10 steals in a season in the minors. He’s pretty fast, but he’s not a true burner with his 78th percentile sprint speed.
** Tovar started badly, performed better in May and June and then came in at .238/.273/.378 over the final three months. Among players with 400 PA, only Salvador Perez swung at a higher percentage of pitches than Tovar, and the rookie finished with a 166/25 K/BB ratio in 615 PA. Tovar played the season at age 21, and he’s a plus defensive shortstop, so he remains the Rockies’ long-term answer at short. Still, it’s discouraging just how poor his approach was, and it sent the wrong message that the Rockies rewarded him by moving him to the top of the lineup. From a fantasy perspective, he would have met expectations had he done more running, but he was just 11-for-16 on the basepaths. He stole 74 bases in 283 career games in the minors.
** McMahon led the team with 23 homers, but after making progress as a contact hitter the previous two years, he fell badly this season, striking out 31.6% of the time. He finished at 25.6% between 2021 and ‘22. It meant that even with an improved BABIP, he batted just .240. He was particularly bad in lefty-lefty matchups, a problem that seems to worsen by the year and might lead to him becoming a platoon player in spite of his strong defense. It still seems like McMahon should be better than this. He has the power. He’s no longer hampered by hitting too many grounders. He just seems incapable of putting it together; whenever something gets better, something else immediately gets worse.
** The 25-year-old Doyle was probably MLB’s best defensive center fielder as a rookie, and he needed to be, considering that he hit .203/.250/.343 with 151 strikeouts in 399 plate appearances. That’s pretty much what his minor league numbers suggested he’d hit, considering that he fanned over 30% of the time there, too. If the Rockies could figure out a way to turn hit into a league-average hitter, his defense would make him an All-Star caliber performer. That’s probably not realistic, though. With Coors helping him along, he still might offer mixed-league value next year with the hope of 18-20 homers and 20-30 steals.
** Elehuris Montero went from being a strong offseason DFA candidate at midseason to a realistic option as next year’s first baseman with a strong stretch run. He hit .286/.355/.531 with six homers in September, though that did come with 32 strikeouts in 110 plate appearances. Montero has always showed plenty of power potential, but fielding and plate discipline are areas of weakness. In 138 games the last two seasons, he’s amassed a 171/23 K/BB ratio, leaving him with a .283 OBP. He’ll be out of options next spring.
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Key Free Agents
Brent Suter, Chris Flexen, Chase Anderson
Team Needs
The Rockies already took care of their main free agents, signing the injured Márquez and Charlie Blackmon to extensions late in the season. At best, they’ll get Márquez back from Tommy John in July or August.
What the Rockies need is new ownership that isn’t forever content with the status quo. Firing GM Jeff Bridich two years ago didn’t seem to make much of a difference, as internal hire Bill Schmidt is simply carrying on his legacy. It’s not money; the Rockies had a $172 million payroll this year. They just don’t have much of an idea of what makes good baseball players good and bad baseball players bad, and it extends through the entire organization. But that’s not changing this winter. They’ll likely to try to add at least one quality starting pitcher and one bat to add to the mix at first base or in the outfield corners.
