Cleveland Guardians
2023 Record: 76-86 (.469)
Third Place, AL Central
Team ERA: 4.00 (10th)
Team OPS: .695 (25th)
What Went Right
What has felt as surefire (insert analogy here), the Guardians pitching development had two more successes in rookie right-handers Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams. Bibee made his debut first and tossed 142 innings in the majors to the tune of a 2.98 ERA. Williams debut later in the summer and posted a 3.29 ERA across 82 innings. While they are both 24-years-old and are right-handed, that is where the similarities end. Williams has a wipeout fastball that averages 96 MPH to go along with a slider while Bibee’s slider is out of this world which he pairs with a superb changeup and decent four seam. José Ramírez has been drafted in the first round for what feels like forever at this point, and while the counting categories weren’t there, the 31-year-old third baseman cranked 24 home runs to go along with 28 swipes. Oh yeah…there was also a fight over the summer that you might have heard of as well. Josh Naylor transformed from a platoon bat into an RBI machine and should continue to have a full-time role with the ball club.
What Went Wrong
Oh boy. Pull up a chair. Over the winter, the Guardians traded away Nolan Jones and Will Benson. They were curious moves at the time as the biggest hole in Cleveland’s offensive for what feels like a decade has been the lack of power. Both of those players went to their new homes and blossomed while the Guardians finished 27th in runs scored with 662, which was one more than their leaguemates the Detroit Tigers. They also strangely traded away Amed Rosario at the trading deadline for Noah Syndergaard before he was released from the team at the end of August. The Guardians also dealt with their fair share of injures, with Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie spending a significant amount of time on the injured list. Andrés Giménez was amazing defensively at second base but he couldn’t replicate his 2022 campaign.
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Fantasy Slants
**José Ramírez had his worst season wRC+ wise since the 2019 campaign. The 30-year-old third baseman hit .282/.356/.475 with 24 homers and 28 stolen bases across 691 plate appearances. Ramírez has been remarkably durable, playing more than 152 games for three straight seasons, and likely would have reached expectations if the team around was better with the stick. For the first time in his career, he finished with the same amount of walks and strikeouts, 73 of each variety, and that total was buoyed by leading the league in intentional walks, with 22 international free passes. While he will likely shift into a second-round pick in drafts, most fantasy managers will agree that the veteran will unlikely derail their season.
**Josh Naylor transformed himself from a platoon bat that was mostly deployed against right-handed pitching into a run-scoring machine in Cleveland. Last season, the husky first baseman hit .173/.276/.236 against southpaws and improved greatly to the tune of a .299/.347/.474 slash line. He easily led the team with 97 RBI and likely would have crossed the 100 RBI threshold if it weren’t for a late-season oblique strain that cost him a month of playing time. He split time between first base and designated hitter, and that role remained after the Guardians traded Josh Bell at the beginning of August. After the trade, he usually played six games at the cold corner before getting a game off his feet as the designated hitter. With top prospect Kyle Manzardo finishing the season in the Arizona Fall League, don’t be surprised if he starts more games as the designated hitter next year.
**Will the real Andrés Giménez please stand up? The Guardians second baseman inked a long-term deal after his amazing 2022 campaign this winter and promptly fell on his face. The 24-year-old slashed .251/.314/.399 with 15 homers and 30 stolen bases across 616 plate appearances. Giménez was never known to be a power hitter, but his 60 percent HR/Brl rate is way below the league average of 69 percent, which could portend to a slight uptick in taters next season, but we are talking below 20 jacks here. Giménez is a young player, so we should dismiss a chance of improvement, but he reminds us too much of this era of Guardians hitters. Power outage.
**Steven Kwan’s 2023 season greatly mirrored his 2022 campaign. Last year, he hit six homers, stole 19 bases, scored 89 runs, and drove in 52. This season, he hit five dingers, swiped 21 bases, and scored 93 runs while driving in 54 runners. The similarities stop there as the 25-year-old outfielder hit just .268/.340/.370 across 718 plate appearances. He nearly hit .300 last season. The biggest difference? He had a .323 BABIP last year and just a .294 BABIP this season. Kwan is an excellent hitter but an all-fields approach from a player with a 1.51 GB/FB ratio just doesn’t work in the game we play.
**While Bo Naylor’s average is a bit rough to take, his first season in Cleveland was a success. The 23-year-old hit .237/.339/.470 with 11 homers and five stolen bases across 230 plate appearances. The younger Naylor was called up in mid-June after veteran Mike Zunino was designated for assignment. While he never received full-time playing time, his September was outstanding, hitting .304/.444/.607 with four dingers and 14 runs scored over 72 plate appearances. He showed a well-developed eye at the plate with a swinging strike rate of seven percent and a zone contract rate of 89 percent. With Cam Gallagher (and his atrocious .126/.154/.168 season-long slash line) being the only catcher on the 40-man roster Naylor should receive the lion share of the playing time next season, unless the Guardians decide to bring in someone else, of course.
**Shane Bieber’s declining velocity has been a concern since he won the AL Cy Young Award in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He was limited to 96 ⅔ innings in 2021 due to a shoulder strain but did bounce back last season, tossing 200 innings while posting a 2.88 ERA, but his average fastball velocity dipped below 92 MPH. To start off his 2023 campaign, he made all of his starts but strangely began to be limited to 90-pitch outings in June. After the All-Star, we all found out why, as the veteran right-hander landed on the injured list with right elbow inflammation. He did manage to get back on the mound in September, posting a 4.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 12/1 K/BB ratio across two starts at home against the Orioles and Reds. Going into the 2024 season, many questions remain. Is he healthy? Can he continue to get away with below-average velocity? With one more year of team control, will the Guardians trade him away?
**A plethora of pitching prospects made their major league debut this season and it seemed like there was a new and exciting player on the waiver wire every week. One of the best in the group was Tanner Bibee. The 24-year-old right-hander posted an outstanding 2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 141/45 K/BB ratio across 142 innings for the Guardians. After showing outstanding command coming up through the lower levels of the minors, he posted a 7.7 percent walk rate this year. If we take a look at his ball percentage (total number of balls/ total amount of pitches), he had 36.3 percent of balls thrown, which equates to a 7.6 percent walk rate, so it would appear that this level of control is here to stay. (If you haven’t had time to read Jeff Zimmerman’s piece on ball percentage, I highly recommend it.) Digging a little bit deeper, his 31.9 percent strikeout rate and 26.6 percent walk rate on 3-2 counts both have better results than the major league average. For context, the major league average in 3-2 counts is a 29 percent strikeout rate with a 32 percent walk rate. So after I threw a bunch of numbers at you, it would appear that the young right-hander got a bit lucky in pivotal 3-2 counts, which could easily go the other way next season, and expecting him to outperform again seems like a tall order.
**Gavin Williams, another top pitching prospect who made his debut with the Guardians this season, was the opposite of Bibee and struggled in 3-2 counts. He posted a 23.5 percent strikeout rate and a 35.3 walk rate. He was also unlucky in his ball percentage as his 36.8 percent ball percentage should equate to an 8.4 walk rate, and the 24-year-old posted a 10.7 walk rate this season. While the two were both coming up through the Guardians system, Williams was ranked higher on prospect lists due to his elite fastball. Taking all of the factors in mind, as much as I was a huge Bibee fan coming into the 2023 season, I’ll likely wait another round or two before attempting to add Williams to my roster.
**Emmanuel Clase finished the season at the top of the leaderboards with 44 saves but also had the worst season of his career. He posted a 3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 64/16 K/BB ratio across 72 ⅔ innings. One of the biggest causes of the downturn was his slider, which was a go-to wipeout pitch, went from a 47 percent whiff pitch to a 27 percent whiff offering. We have also seen back-to-back seasons of declining velocity. Sure, the velocity of his cutter dropped from 100 MPH in 2021 down to 99 MPH this season but it is just something to keep in mind. Also, with manager Terry Francona retiring, it will be interesting to see how his new manager will use him going forward. Over the past two seasons, the 25-year-old has been either first or second in save opportunities. Will the manager still stick with Clase nearly 100 percent of the time?
**Kyle Manzardo was traded at the trade deadline as the Rays added Aaron Civale for their quest for a championship ring. Manzardo is a first-base-only prospect who missed time this season with a shoulder injury. After returning from the injured list, he hit the ground running, slashing .256/.348/.590 with six homers across 92 plate appearances. As of this article, Manzardo is playing in the Arizona Fall League with the Peoria Javelinas and his .256/.356/.590 slash line will surely raise his price on draft day. With the Rays infield stacked to the brim with talent, especially at first base, Manzardo most likely would have started the season in Triple-A; however, there is no one blocking him from breaking camp with the team after spring training.
Key Free Agents
Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez
Team Needs
It seems like we keep saying the same thing year after year but the Guardians could really use a big-time power bat. They attempted to sign one with Josh Bell, but bailed on that plan and traded him away at the Trading Deadline. They will also have another manager for the first time since 2013, with veteran Terry Francona taking a step away from the game. Francona had a unique style, rightly or wrongly, of being extremely loyal to his players. Could this affect playing time for some of the Guardians’ regulars? Only time will tell.
