Even though many pitchers will test new pitches in the spring, they can often be abandoned when the regular season starts. It can often be more informative to see which pitchers have drastically changed their pitch mix or pitch shape after a few starts in the regular season. It’s not as common, and the changes aren’t as drastic, but it allows us to see how a pitcher is reacting to what he’s seeing from hitters and gives us a glimpse into what the pitcher thinks he needs to do to be successful.
With that in mind, we will continue with the premise of the series I had called Pitchers with New Pitches (and Should We Care) by breaking down notable changes in a pitcher’s pitch mix (hence “Mixing” it up). We’ll look at pitchers throwing a new pitch, have eliminated a pitch, changed their pitch mix meaningfully, or are showcasing a different shape/velocity on a pitch. It will mostly be positive changes, but sometimes we’ll point to a change we’re not excited about but could have a meaningful impact on a pitcher’s fantasy outlook.
I’ll continue my analysis with the simple premise that not every new pitch should be greeted with praise. A new pitch, like a shiny new toy, might be exciting on its own, but it also needs to complement what a pitcher already has and fill a meaningful void in his current pitch mix. We want to check and see if he has any splits issues. We want to see what his best pitch(es) is and see if this new pitch would complement that. Then we want to see what this new pitch type is generally used for (control, called strikes, etc.) and see if that is something this pitcher needs help with. We can also now see the pitch in action to look at the shape and command and see if it’s actually any good. Once we’ve done all that, we can decide if the pitch is a good addition or not.
If you missed any of the previous editions of this series, you can click this link here to be taken to the tracker, which I’ll update as the season goes on. It also includes links to the original articles so you can read them in full if you’d like.
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Blake Snell - San Francisco Giants (Four-seam, slider, curve usage)
Blake Snell came off the IL in early July and has looked like a drastically different pitcher in his three starts since. This is also not new for Snell. We know that he’s one of the streakiest pitchers in baseball and can go on these stretches where he looks unhittable for months. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed two runs on six hits in 18 innings for a 1.00 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, 16.1% K-BB%, 16.5% swinging strike rate (SwStr%), and 19% Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) allowed.
So is he doing this with any clear changes?
For starters, you can see a clear change in pitch mix with Snell leaning on the fastball slightly more and drastically dialing back on his slider while making his curve his top secondary offering. On the surface, that makes some sense. The slider has missed a decent number of bats this season with a 16% SwStr%; however, it has also given up lots of hard contact with a 45.5% ICR.
Part of the reason Snell may be moving away from the slider is his struggle to command it. On the season, it has just a 30% zone rate and 49% strike rate, both sub-10th percentile in baseball for sliders. He doesn’t use it much in two-strike counts, and it had just a slightly above-average put-away rate (PAR), so there is room for improvement, particularly because right-handers have a 50% ICR against the slider and Snell struggles to throw it in the zone even more against opposite-handed hitters.
Meanwhile, the curve is a pitch that he commands much better with a 36.7% zone rate and 67% strike rate over his last three starts. On the season, the curve has missed slightly fewer bats than the slider, but given up far less hard contact with a 25% ICR against right-handed batters. Snell also seems more confident throwing it with two strikes, using it 42% of the time in two-strike counts since the All-Star break, while posting a 30.3% PAR. He’s been doing a great job keeping it glove side, which has helped it induce a 25.3% SwStr% over his last three starts.
In addition to leaning into the curve more, Snell has a little extra juice on the fastball, averaging 96.1 mph since coming off the IL. He’s using it often to get ahead, with 69% usage early in the count, and has a 52.3% zone rate, which is up almost five percent from his season-long numbers. He’s been keeping the fastball up in the zone well and spotting the curve underneath it, which has been crucial for him over this run.
VERDICT: MEANINGFULLY IMPACTFUL. Walks have been an issue for Snell, so switching to a secondary pitch that he can command better is a clear upgrade. The curve is also a better offering for right-handed hitters, which makes it more logical to use as a primary secondary offering. It’s unclear if Snell can keep this velocity boost, but the pitch mix change is certainly a good modification.
Andrew Heaney - Texas Rangers (Slider)
Andrew Heaney has been on a bit of a tear over his last six starts, posting a 2.43 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 20.2% K-BB%, 14.4% SwStr%, and 33.3% ICR. That’s a solid improvement from his 14 starts before then which saw him register a 4.18 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 15.2% K-BB%, 13.5% SwStr%, and 39.1% ICR. He’s missing more bats, throwing more strikes, and not getting hit as hard. So what changed?
Starting on June 19th against the Mets, Andrew Heaney made a clear change to his slider, throwing it over two mph harder and with less drop while maintaining the same amount of sweep. It’s an interesting change because the harder velocity and same level of sweep would make the pitch seemingly dart away from lefties or in on righties more quickly. Yet, another major impact of the new slider shape is that it seems to be one that Heaney can command better.
Before that Mets’ start, Heaney’s slider was 81.6 mph with a 66% strike rate and 34.4% zone rate. He was doing a good job of keeping it down in the zone, but he was throwing it glove-side just 57% of the time, which means it was over the middle of the plate almost 25% of the time. So even though the slider had a solid 25.3% K-BB% and 20.7% SwStr%, by catching so much of the plate, he was giving batters a chance to make authoritative contact, which is why the slider allowed a 47.2% ICR over that stretch. What’s more, even though Heaney was using the slider in two-strike counts 35% of the time, it has just a 21.4% PAR. So it was missing bats, but not being commanded well enough to avoid hard contact or get many swings and misses in two-strike counts.
We’ve seen a drastic improvement in almost all areas with the new velocity on the slider.
Over his last six games, the slider is averaging around 83 mph and has an improved 37.2% zone rate. Perhaps more importantly, Heaney is getting it glove-side 64% of the time and is leaving it middle under 19% of the time now. That’s a clear improvement, which has led to a 42.7% ICR which is nearly 5% better than his previous mark. Since Heaney is doing a better job of keeping the slider on the outside corner, it has a slightly lower strike rate overall but is getting more chases, with a 25.5% K-BB%, 22.5% SwStr%, and 25% PAR. The left-hander has felt more comfortable with the pitch, upping the usage overall from 26% to 35%, and his ability to command it for strikes has helped the rest of the arsenal play up.
VERDICT: MARGINALLY IMPACTFUL. The slider is clearly better in every facet with the increased velocity. It has raised Heaney’s floor and also given him more strikeout upside. The only hesitation is that we’ve seen him do this before and then revert to other shapes/velocities, so there’s no telling how long this will last. However, while it’s happening, Heaney makes for a great option in all formats.
River Ryan - Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB debut)
The Dodgers called up their top pitching prospect, River Ryan, on Monday, and he looked solid in his debut, going 5.1 innings against the Giants while allowing four hits, one run, three walks, and two strikeouts. Given his pedigree and team context, I figured it made sense to dive into his pitch mix to see if he’s an add in all types of fantasy formats.
What should jump out at you first is that Ryan threw six pitches. That’s an incredibly deep pitch mix as a rookie. Five of those pitches graded out as better-than-average according to Stuff+, but only two of them ranked better-than-average in Pitcher List’s PLV metric, which takes into account pitch location. Since you can see from the graphic above that Ryan struggled a bit with command, this shouldn’t come as a surprise and is also common with MLB debuts since pitchers are dealing with a lot of adrenaline which can impact location.
Ryan led off his arsenal with a four-seam fastball that was 96.1 mph with only slightly above-average extension and below-average Induced Vertical Break (iVB). Still, given his release height, it’s a flat fastball that could work well up in the zone; yet, as we’ve discussed with many pitchers, the Dodgers seemingly dislike fastballs up in the zone. Ryan kept his there 48% of the time in the debut, which is fine but also kept it away from hitters, which can often allow for more contact. He also threw just 33% of fastballs up against right-handed hitters, instead opting to throw low fastballs 44.4% of the time to righties. I don’t love that and it may have been part of the reason Ryan didn’t get a single whiff on the four-seam to right-handed hitters on Monday.
Ryan also seems to love throwing his slider to righties, using it over 50% of the time to right-handed hitters in his debut. The pitch is 88-90 mph with very little vertical break and about five inches of sweep. He didn’t throw a single one to lefties, so this is a right-handed weapon only, but he also threw it early in the count 88%, so this is more of a strike pitch for Ryan. In fact, he didn’t throw a single two-strike slider on Monday. Now, that could certainly have been just based on game flow, but it’s important to note that he used it so early in the count often and does a good job keeping it away from righties, which means he can use it to pitch backward if he wants to keep them off of his four-seam fastball.
Stuff+ says the slider is Ryan’s best pitch, but PLV graded it as a 4.85 with 5.22 being league-average. This likely has to do with location since Ryan had just a 53% strike rate with the slider, throwing eight balls on 17 pitches. Stuff+ says the raw shape/movement is great, but PLV says he needs to command it better. Perhaps it was just nerves?
He will also mix in his sinker and curveball to righties. The sinker is a solid strike pitch, but I dislike how he doesn’t throw it inside but leaves it over the middle of the plate. The curveball grades out as his best pitch according to PLV. Ryan throws it 83.2 mph with about 11 inches of sweep and 13 inches of drop. That’s almost the same induced vertical break and sweep of other curveballs that are almost four mph slower than Ryan’s on average. He trusts it as a weapon too, throwing it 50% of the time in two-strike counts; however, he didn’t get a single swing-and-miss in his debut. The overall shape tells us this could be a great pitch for him, but he simply left the pitch up too much in his debut.
To lefties, Rive will mix in a cutter and a changeup. As you can see from the strike zone plot above, Ryan struggled to command the changeup on Monday, which is why it graded out as his worst pitch by PLV. It does have a lot of horizontal movement at 89.5 mph, so it could be a solid power change for lefties, but he’ll need to show that he can command it better. His cutter is 94 mph and was the only other pitch to grade out as plus according to PLV because it has good shape, but is harder than the average cutter so it grades out well based on raw stuff while also being commanded in the zone well.
VERDICT: That entire arsenal gives him a deep three-pitch mix to hitters of each handedness and should help him avoid platoon splits. We’d love to see better command, but it was an MLB debut, so we can lean with the raw stuff here and look to add Ryan in most formats.