Minnesota Twins
2024 record: 82-80
4th place, AL Central
Team ERA: 4.26 (21st in MLB)
Team OPS: .726 (11th in MLB)
What Went Right
There were some positives before it all came crashing down. On August 17th, the Twins were 70-53 and two games back of the Guardians for the division lead. While Minnesota lost nine of its next 12 games, the Twins still had 95.4 percent playoff odds on FanGraphs on September 5th. They would go on to lose 16 of the last 22 games of the season and were eliminated from playoff contention in the final weekend of the regular season, but we’ll get back to that in the next section. Franchise cornerstones Carlos Correa (155 wRC+) and Byron Buxton (142 wRC+) both had bounce back seasons, though injuries limited them to 86 and 102 games respectively. Matt Wallner came back from the minor leagues on July 7th and hit .282/.386/.559 in 228 plate appearances from that point on through the end of the season. Trevor Larnach (121 wRC+) and Jose Miranda (115 wRC+) also had strong showings and they got a lot out of signing 38-year-old Carlos Santana (115 wRC+). Pablo Lopez (3.36 xFIP), Joe Ryan (3.44) and Bailey Ober (3.83) made up a strong top three starters in the rotation, though injuries limited Ryan to 23 starts. David Festa came up from the minors and made 13 starts with a 3.58 xFIP. Griffin Jax (2.32 xFIP) and Jhoan Duran (2.70 xFIP) were a formidable bullpen tandem in the late innings.
What Went Wrong
In 2023, the Twins won their first playoff series in 21 years. Then their ownership decided to cut payroll by $30 million, which led to an uninspiring offseason where the front office made moves like trading Jorge Polanco ($10.5 million) for Anthony DeSclafani and cash to sign Carlos Santana ($5.25 million). At the trade deadline, with the team 11 games over .500, the Twins acquired Trevor Richards, who had a 5.91 xFIP in 13 innings for Minnesota and was released before September. The Twins collapse down the stretch was one for the books. Minnesota wasn’t winning games and didn’t get any help from the Royals and Tigers, who couldn’t lose. The collapse was punctuated with an 8-6 loss at home to the Marlins in 13 innings on the final Thursday of the regular season. The Twins entered the final weekend needing to win out and either the Royals or Tigers to lose out to make the playoffs, but they lost 7-2 in Baltimore on September 27 to put an official end to their playoff dreams. The morale of the Twins fan base might’ve been at an all-time high at the end of the 2023 season, but it appears to have hit rock bottom by the end of 2024. The offseason is already off to a rocky start as the Pohlad family has announced its intent to sell the team. I suppose it can only get better from here.
Fantasy Slants
Injuries limited Royce Lewis to 82 games, which has been a common theme throughout his young career. Lewis’ production also suffered with a .233 average, but his BABIP was low at .254 while his eight percent walk percentage, 22 percent strikeout percent and .219 ISO were consistent with his previous play. Lewis doesn’t steal bases, but he should go back to hitting at least .275 with power in 2025. The only question is if the oft-injured infielder can stay on the field long enough for his first season with at least 500 plate appearances.
While David Festa had a 4.90 ERA, his 3.58 xFIP was very encouraging. He allowed a 1.26 HR/9 and .319 BABIP. His 36 percent ground ball percentage was a good amount lower than the 44 percent ground ball percentage he had in Triple-A. Festa completed six innings in only one of his 14 appearances with the Twins, but not many pitchers consistently work deep into games anymore. I want to bet on the talent here and Festa had a 27 percent strikeout percentage with the Twins after posting a 34 percent strikeout percentage in Triple-A. His left on base percentage could increase from 68 percent, which would help his ERA. Festa probably isn’t going to win a ton of games, but the strikeouts will be there, especially in two-start weeks. He should be a fine back-end fantasy starter at minimal cost in drafts.
Matt Wallner fell on his face in April. He went 2-for-25 with 17 strikeouts before the Twins sent him down to the minors. Once he was back in the majors, though, Wallner had a .945 OPS supported by a blood red baseball savant page. He’s a platoon player, but the Twins can’t afford to take him out of the lineup against right-handed pitching. In formats with daily or mid-week lineup changes where fantasy managers can get the most out of Wallner, he’s a priority target late in 2025 drafts.
Brooks Lee hit .221 with an .099 ISO in his first 185 major league plate appearances, but his 14 percent strikeout percentage was encouraging. A .243 BABIP is likely low for Lee and his average should improve. I’m not predicting a true breakout season in 2025, but the low strikeout profile is something. Lee should be the Twins starting second baseman and will have value right away in deeper formats.
Key Free Agents
Max Kepler, Carlos Santana, Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer
Team Needs
The Twins enter the offseason in a precarious position, especially considering the team is essentially up for sale. Minnesota reportedly wants to stay at a payroll of around $130 million, which means some expensive veterans could be traded. Whether that means attaching prospects in trade to clear the contracts of players like Chris Paddack and Christian Vazquez or dumping Willi Castro, who is a free agent after 2025, when he just made the All-Star team remains to be seen. Minnesota needs pitching, though. The Twins could use another late inning arm in the bullpen to go with Jax and Duran and another starting pitcher to push Paddack and Simeon Woods Richardson down the rotation depth chart. No matter what they do this offseason, it’s clear the team is going to have to get creative with their moves.
